China’s ambitious space endeavors are capturing global attention as the nation propels itself to the forefront of the space race, outpacing traditional leaders like Russia and the United States. On June 2, China’s Chang’e 6 probe landed on the far side of the moon to retrieve samples for analysis on Earth, marking a significant milestone in lunar exploration. Additionally, a Chinese commercial launch company successfully sent four satellites into orbit on May 29 with the second sea launch of the Ceres-1 solid rocket. This launch was China’s 25th orbital mission of 2024, and the country’s primary space contractor has announced plans for approximately 100 launches this year, including around 30 commercial missions.
China’s space program is rapidly advancing on multiple fronts, positioning itself ahead of the US in various aspects. As of May 2024, China operates over 600 satellites, with a significant portion dedicated to military intelligence. This impressive fleet includes 359 intelligence satellites, a threefold increase since 2018.
China’s “Long March” rockets are among the most powerful in the world. The Long March 5 (CZ-5) can carry a maximum payload of 25,000 kg to low Earth orbit (LEO) and 14,000 kg to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). To meet its ambitious goals, China plans to make all its rockets fully reusable by 2035. The country is also developing superheavy rockets capable of carrying 150 tons of payload to LEO, with an 80-ton fully reusable variant expected to be operational by the 2040s.
China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system, consisting of 35 satellites, offers global services as an alternative to the US-owned Global Positioning System (GPS). BeiDou’s positioning accuracy is within one meter, compared to GPS’s three meters. China aims to integrate its 5G ground-based internet with the BeiDou-powered satellite internet, enhancing global connectivity and positioning accuracy.
China’s space program achieved human spaceflight in 2003 and launched its first uncrewed lunar mission in 2007. By the end of 2024, China will complete and fully operationalize its continuously crewed, 60-ton space station, Tiangong, or “Heavenly Palace,” capable of housing six crew members. As of April 2024, 22 Chinese nationals have traveled to space, with plans to send a Chinese astronaut to the moon by 2030 and establish a crewed lunar base. China is also developing a cis-lunar relay architecture with additional Queqiao and Tiandu satellites.
Despite being a signatory to treaties for the peaceful use of space, China has demonstrated significant anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities. In 2007, China conducted a successful ASAT test, destroying a defunct weather satellite. Subsequent tests have refined China’s “ground-based midcourse missile interception technology,” and analysts believe these advancements could counter ballistic targets. China’s ASAT capabilities include technologies to rendezvous with and disable adversary satellites, as demonstrated in 2022 when a Chinese satellite removed a defunct satellite from orbit.
China has developed a “fractional orbital bombardment system” (FOBS) capable of delivering hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) to strike targets anywhere on Earth. This system, combined with the maneuverability of HGVs, poses a significant threat to both fixed and mobile targets, including aircraft carriers. China’s capabilities in rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO) further enhance its military applications in space.
China is advancing its reusable rocket technology with state-owned CASC planning test flights for new large-diameter reusable rockets. The Long March 10 rockets, with four- and five-meter diameters, are slated for launches in 2025 and 2026, respectively. China is also developing a reusable space shuttle equivalent, potentially equipped with grappler arms and high-power microwave or laser weapons. Reusable space planes, tested since 2020, are part of China’s strategy to reduce redeployment times and costs.
The space domain is becoming increasingly contested, as evidenced by cyber operations during the Ukraine war. China is developing jam-resistant communications and reducing the radar signatures of its satellites, akin to stealth technology. The PLA’s cyber units are continuously evolving cyber-attack methodologies against satellites, with China planning its own satellite internet constellation, similar to SpaceX’s Starlink. China Satellite Network aims to launch about 1,300 satellites by 2029, with further plans to establish a high-speed 6G communications network.
The Ukraine conflict has underscored the need for a dedicated aerospace arm within the PLA, optimized for LEO-based constellations and counter-space capabilities. The Aerospace Force will focus on ensuring China’s access to, use, and control of space, enhancing space situational awareness (SSA), and developing space-specific culture, training, and capabilities.
Corporate China is increasingly investing in the space frontier, with hundreds of private space start-ups emerging in satellite building and launch services. Private funding is on the rise, with the government offering incentives to rocket start-ups. Companies like Galactic Energy and Landspace are increasing their launch frequencies and achieving significant milestones, such as Landspace’s successful launch of the Zhuque-2 rocket, the world’s first liquid oxygen-methane rocket to deliver payloads into orbit.
China is transitioning from emulating the achievements of the US and Russia to setting new standards in space exploration. The aerospace industry is a strategic emerging industry, alongside oceanography, information networks, life sciences, and nuclear technology. China is leading in Quantum Experiments at Space Scale (QUESS) and researching dark matter with the hard X-ray modulation telescope (HXMT).
China is also testing a space-based solar power system capable of beaming energy back to Earth, aiming to make space launches and services a thriving business. President Xi Jinping’s vision includes neutralizing the effects of the trade standoff with the US and achieving 80% domestic sourcing for civil space industry equipment by 2025. The establishment of “space development zones” will further bolster the supply chain for China’s burgeoning space sector.
By 2045, China aims to surpass the US in key aerospace projects, ultimately making China an “earthly paradise” by 2050. However, the lack of dialogue between the US, Russia, and China on new space treaties remains a concern. The last US-China space dialogue occurred in 2017, with no further discussions scheduled.
China’s relentless pursuit of space dominance is reshaping the landscape of global space exploration. With a comprehensive strategy encompassing human spaceflight, satellite navigation, military applications, and commercial ventures, China is set to lead the new era of space competition. As the world watches, China races ahead, determined to secure its place as a preeminent space power.
