Tensions in the Taiwan Strait are escalating once again as China is expected to conduct military drills near Taiwan, with Taiwanese officials warning that President Lai Ching-te’s upcoming National Day speech could be used as a pretext for heightened Chinese military activity. The anticipated drills, believed to be scheduled around October 10, coincide with Taiwan’s national celebrations, sparking concern both domestically and internationally over the implications for cross-strait relations and regional security.
Taiwanese officials have expressed growing concerns that no matter the content of President Lai’s National Day speech, China may frame it as a provocation to justify military maneuvers aimed at pressuring the island to accept Beijing’s sovereignty claims. This possibility is based on recent intelligence assessments and the analysis of ongoing Chinese military operations in the region.
“Our assessment is that no matter what Lai says on October 10, they might put a name on existing exercises and call it Joint Sword – 2024B. That’s a possibility,” said a senior Taiwanese security official, alluding to a potential follow-up to China’s “Joint Sword – 2024A” drills conducted in May this year.
The May drills, which took place shortly after Lai’s inauguration as Taiwan’s president, were characterized as “punishment” exercises by Beijing. They featured heavily armed warplanes and mock military attacks on the island, with Chinese state media describing the maneuvers as a response to “separatist acts” by Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The exercises triggered widespread concerns in global capitals, including Washington, which closely monitors military developments in the Taiwan Strait.
In an internal security memo obtained by Reuters, Taiwanese authorities highlighted their belief that Beijing could attribute any forthcoming drills to Lai’s “provocation” in his National Day speech. “China has continuously tried to test the red lines of various countries, maximising its grey-zone operations,” the memo stated, referring to military activities that stop short of full-scale combat but are designed to test the resolve and response capabilities of other militaries.
Both Taiwan’s and China’s defense ministries have yet to comment on the situation, and China’s Taiwan Affairs Office has also not responded to requests for statements.
China’s military strategy toward Taiwan has increasingly relied on so-called “grey-zone” tactics—actions that push boundaries without crossing into direct conflict. This includes regular incursions by Chinese warplanes into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), naval patrols, and cyber activities aimed at destabilizing Taiwan’s government. These operations are intended to wear down Taiwan’s military readiness and create a constant atmosphere of tension.
The likely upcoming drills around Taiwan could be the latest iteration of China’s grey-zone warfare strategy. In May, China’s “Joint Sword – 2024A” exercise featured simulated strikes on Taiwan’s infrastructure and defense systems, a clear signal of Beijing’s readiness to use force if necessary. The timing of that exercise, immediately following Lai’s inauguration, underscored Beijing’s hostility toward Taiwan’s government, particularly under the DPP, which Beijing views as advocating for Taiwan’s independence.
In Beijing’s eyes, Lai Ching-te is a key figure in the so-called “separatist” movement in Taiwan. As a leading member of the DPP, Lai has consistently opposed Beijing’s claims that Taiwan is part of China, instead insisting that Taiwan’s future should be determined by its 23 million citizens. China’s leadership, including President Xi Jinping, has repeatedly stated that they are willing to use military force to achieve what they describe as the “reunification” of Taiwan with mainland China.
In recent years, China has stepped up its military presence around Taiwan, and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has conducted a series of large-scale drills simulating an invasion of the island. These exercises, along with a massive military modernization program, suggest that Beijing is not only preparing for the possibility of conflict but also trying to deter Taiwan from making any moves that would formalize its de facto independence.
President Lai Ching-te is set to deliver a key speech on October 10 as part of Taiwan’s National Day celebrations. The day marks the 113th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China (ROC), Taiwan’s official name, and will see a grand celebration in front of the presidential office in Taipei. National Day is a highly symbolic event for Taiwan, highlighting its distinct political identity and democratic system, separate from that of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Lai’s speech is expected to touch on several important themes, including Taiwan’s commitment to democracy, regional security, and its role in the international community. However, given the intense scrutiny from Beijing, any remarks that reaffirm Taiwan’s sovereignty or call for deeper engagement with other democracies could be seized upon by China as evidence of “separatist” intent. Taiwanese officials believe that Beijing might be preparing to react regardless of the content of the speech, using it as a convenient pretext to justify further military escalation.
“It’s likely to be a pretext,” said the senior Taiwanese security official, reiterating the belief that China will attempt to frame any drills as a response to Lai’s speech, even if the content remains relatively moderate.
The international community, particularly the United States, has been watching developments in the Taiwan Strait closely. Washington, under the Taiwan Relations Act, is committed to providing Taiwan with the means to defend itself and has consistently urged both sides to avoid actions that could lead to conflict. However, with U.S.-China relations already strained over a range of issues, including trade, human rights, and the South China Sea, any major flare-up over Taiwan could have significant global ramifications.
A Taipei-based diplomatic source, speaking anonymously, told that one factor that might restrain China from a dramatic military response is the proximity of the U.S. presidential election in November. Beijing may wish to avoid bringing Taiwan tensions into the international spotlight just as American voters head to the polls, potentially complicating China’s diplomatic strategies with a new U.S. administration.
“These days, China does not really need a pretext to hold war games around Taiwan. They can do them anytime they like,” the source said, highlighting the increasing regularity of Chinese military drills near the island.
However, some analysts caution that China’s leadership, particularly under Xi Jinping, might be willing to take risks in the near term if they believe it will strengthen their long-term position in cross-strait relations. Xi has made “reunification” a cornerstone of his political agenda, and any perceived weakening of U.S. resolve in supporting Taiwan could embolden Beijing to ramp up its pressure tactics.
As the October 10 speech approaches, Taiwan is bracing for potential Chinese military provocations. The island’s defense forces have been on heightened alert in anticipation of the drills, and Taiwan has continued to bolster its defenses with new weapons systems and strategic partnerships, particularly with the United States. In recent years, Taiwan has also sought to diversify its international support network, forging stronger ties with Japan, Australia, and European countries.
Taiwanese leaders have stressed that they are not looking for conflict but will defend their territory and way of life if necessary. “We are not provocateurs, but we will not be intimidated,” President Lai has said in past speeches, a sentiment likely to be echoed in his upcoming National Day address.
As the world watches President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech and the potential Chinese military drills that may follow, the future of Taiwan-China relations remains uncertain. The situation in the Taiwan Strait continues to be one of the most dangerous flashpoints in global geopolitics, with the potential to draw in major powers such as the United States and reshape the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific region.
China’s military drills are a stark reminder of the unresolved tensions that have defined cross-strait relations for decades. While Taiwan seeks to maintain its democratic system and autonomy, Beijing remains determined to bring the island under its control—by force, if necessary. How the international community responds to these tensions in the coming months could be pivotal in shaping the outcome of this long-standing geopolitical rivalry.
