China’s defence ministry issued a rare statement addressing heightened military activity near Taiwan. In a robust declaration, Beijing defended its right to conduct military drills and reaffirmed its commitment to opposing Taiwan’s independence, describing the matter as central to China’s sovereignty.
This statement follows a week of intensified Chinese military operations in the vicinity of Taiwan, prompting Taipei to activate an emergency response centre and heighten its alert status. Taiwan’s government expressed concerns over Beijing’s evolving military strategy, characterizing recent moves as part of a broader goal to challenge the regional order and international norms.
China’s defence ministry on Friday addressed speculation about ongoing military drills near Taiwan. While it neither confirmed nor denied the exercises, the ministry emphasized the unpredictability of military strategy, quoting the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Tzu: “Just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions.”
The ministry reiterated that decisions regarding drills are determined by Beijing’s strategic needs and the evolving situation surrounding Taiwan. “Whether or not to hold exercises and when to hold them is a matter for us to decide on our own according to our own needs and the situation of the struggle,” the statement read.
Beijing also underscored its uncompromising stance against what it perceives as separatist movements in Taiwan and any reliance on “foreign forces” for independence, a veiled warning to the United States. “The People’s Liberation Army will not be absent and will not be soft in its fight against independence and for reunification,” the ministry declared.
The past week saw an unprecedented rise in Chinese military activity around Taiwan, with incursions by warplanes and ships recorded in the East and South China Seas. Taiwan’s defence ministry initially reported 34 Chinese military aircraft operating near the island on Thursday, though the number decreased to 12 by Friday. Taiwan’s coast guard also noted unusual maneuvers by nine Chinese coast guard vessels, which later withdrew.
The sudden surge in Chinese military presence coincided with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s recent transit through the United States, including stops in Hawaii and Guam. While Beijing often views such visits as provocative and indicative of closer US-Taiwan ties, it remained unclear if the military operations were directly tied to Lai’s travel.
Security experts had speculated that Beijing might stage drills as a signal to Taiwan and the incoming Trump administration to respect China’s territorial claims and geopolitical red lines.
In response to the elevated Chinese military activity, Taiwan’s defence ministry activated an emergency response centre earlier in the week. By Thursday evening, the ministry announced the disbandment of the centre, signaling an apparent de-escalation. However, officials cautioned that the broader threat from China remains significant.
“China’s threat towards the island has been evolving since 2022,” Taiwan’s defence ministry said, noting a shift from deterrence to a strategy aimed at exerting control over the First Island Chain. This chain of islands, stretching from Japan through Taiwan and along the Chinese coast into the South China Sea, is considered a critical strategic region for both China and the United States.
Taipei accused Beijing of pursuing long-term goals to disrupt the international rules-based order and deter regional players. “China’s long-term goal of deterring regional parties and disrupting the rule-based international order will not be endorsed by the international community,” the ministry declared.
The escalating tensions have drawn international attention, particularly from the United States. The de facto US embassy in Taiwan, the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), acknowledged an uptick in Chinese military activity in the region. However, it downplayed the notion that the maneuvers were a direct response to President Lai’s US visit.
“While Chinese military activity in the region is currently elevated, we do not believe this is necessarily linked to recent events involving Taiwan,” an AIT spokesperson said. Nonetheless, Washington has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s security under the Taiwan Relations Act.
The ongoing military activity has also raised concerns among other regional stakeholders, including Japan and the Philippines, both of whom have voiced support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Analysts warn that further escalations could have far-reaching implications for regional security and global trade, given the strategic importance of Taiwan and its surrounding waters.
China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province, a stance rooted in the aftermath of the Chinese Civil War when the Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan in 1949. While Taiwan operates as a democratically governed entity with its own military and constitution, Beijing has consistently sought to bring the island under its control, by force if necessary.
Over the past two years, China has intensified its military posturing around Taiwan, staging war games in response to events it perceives as challenges to its claims. This includes large-scale drills conducted after then-US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in 2022 and during Taiwan’s National Day celebrations in October this year.
The latest round of activities, which appear to focus on projecting power across the First Island Chain, reflects a shift in Beijing’s strategy. By targeting this region, China aims to assert dominance over key maritime routes and disrupt alliances among regional democracies.
Taiwan, under President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration, has adopted a dual strategy of strengthening domestic defense capabilities while deepening ties with allies, particularly the United States. This approach has included significant investments in advanced weaponry, bolstering military reserves, and enhancing cybersecurity measures.
On the international stage, Taiwan has sought to gain broader recognition and support, a move that Beijing views with suspicion. While most countries, including the United States, do not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, informal ties and defense commitments have grown stronger in recent years.
President Lai’s transit through the United States, though officially described as unofficial and low-key, underscores the delicate balance Taipei must maintain in navigating its relationship with Washington while avoiding further provocation of Beijing.
As tensions continue to simmer, both sides appear unwilling to back down. For China, Taiwan represents an integral part of its national identity and a critical component of its regional ambitions. For Taiwan, the stakes are existential, with its people overwhelmingly favoring the status quo of de facto independence.
International observers warn that a miscalculation by either side could lead to a broader conflict with catastrophic consequences. For now, the situation remains in flux, with both Beijing and Taipei navigating a precarious path fraught with risks and uncertainties.
