As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, China is navigating a precarious geopolitical landscape. With economic troubles brewing at home and the possibility of a Donald Trump victory looming over the horizon, Beijing has embarked on a remarkable diplomatic charm offensive, particularly toward U.S. allies and partners.
From proclaiming a desire for a “fresh start” with Japan to a potential détente with India, Chinese officials are seeking to dial down diplomatic frictions, particularly in the days leading up to the U.S. election. China’s efforts to reset ties with the United Kingdom and Australia signal a major departure from the combative diplomacy it had favored during Trump’s first term. This diplomatic outreach, however, appears to be driven by more than just goodwill: it reflects China’s anticipation of potentially harsher trade and diplomatic conditions should Trump return to the White House.
China’s overtures toward its neighbors and key global powers underscore shifting political calculations in Beijing. Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, observed that Beijing is actively seeking to bolster its international standing by smoothing relations with numerous countries, particularly in the face of “Trumpian chaos.”
In what could be one of its most significant diplomatic breakthroughs, China reached an agreement with India this week to resume patrolling operations along their disputed Himalayan border. This development marked the end of a four-year military standoff and hinted at the possibility of easing punitive measures that India had imposed on Chinese businesses. Days later, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held their first formal meeting since 2022, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia. The two leaders pledged to stabilize relations, with Xi stressing the importance of managing differences constructively.
The détente between China and India is particularly notable given the context of rising protectionist policies and trade barriers across the globe. Henry Wang Huiyao, founder of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, highlighted how developing nations are increasingly looking to shore up relations with China as a hedge against what they perceive as increasingly protectionist policies from the U.S.
“There’s a push-and-pull effect,” said Wang, referring to Trump’s repeated threats to impose sweeping tariffs on both U.S. allies and adversaries. The growing international dissatisfaction with U.S. protectionism, particularly from Trump, has made China’s renewed diplomatic efforts seem all the more enticing.
China’s diplomatic push is unfolding in the shadow of the tight race between Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Polls indicate a razor-thin margin in key swing states, leaving China bracing for the potential return of a more unpredictable U.S. administration. Trump has already vowed to impose tariffs that could devastate commerce between the world’s two largest economies, and his trade rhetoric has not been limited to China—he’s made threats against U.S. allies as well, blaming global trade practices for America’s domestic economic woes.
China’s diplomatic maneuvers appear to be strategically timed, especially as the nation faces a series of global forums in Latin America just days after the U.S. election. These forums, including the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Group of 20 (G20) summits, will give China a platform to further its influence and build on its burgeoning trade relationships. By mending ties with nations like India and Japan, China is hoping to insulate itself from economic turbulence and the prospect of escalating trade tensions with the U.S.
The diplomatic push has already borne fruit for some of China’s key trading partners. Australia, for example, has seen its wine exports to China jump by more than a third this year, after the two nations resolved a spat that had erupted over Canberra’s support for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Similarly, Japan could soon reap the benefits of improved ties. After banning Japanese seafood in response to Tokyo’s discharge of treated wastewater from a nuclear plant, China reached an agreement with Japan last month that could lead to the lifting of these restrictions.
China’s eagerness to resolve disputes with its neighbors and trade partners underscores the importance of maintaining stable trade relations amidst global uncertainty. Facing a struggling economy, Beijing sees the need to strengthen relationships that could help buffer its domestic economic challenges. Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, points out that China’s economic slowdown and its efforts to attract foreign investment are key drivers behind its outreach.
“Given its domestic economic challenges and a desire to woo foreign investment, it is unsurprising that Beijing is trying to smooth over ties with key neighbors who happen to be important economic partners,” Chong said.
This is especially relevant in the context of China’s escalating trade tensions with the European Union and the United States. Earlier this month, the European Union voted to impose tariffs as high as 45% on electric vehicles imported from China, alleging unfair competition. In response, Beijing is reportedly pressuring Chinese automakers to pause their expansion into European markets. These moves further highlight how China’s diplomatic charm offensive is intended to mitigate the impact of rising trade barriers, particularly those erected by its major trading partners in the West.
While China has focused on improving relations with other global powers, its relationship with the U.S. remains fraught with tension. Major disagreements persist, particularly over sensitive issues such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and U.S. export controls on advanced technology. Despite these divisions, there have been signs of relative stability in U.S.-China relations over the past year, thanks in part to high-level diplomatic engagements between the two sides.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who has held numerous meetings with his Chinese counterparts, acknowledged in August that China is aware of the “sensitive” nature of the U.S. election cycle. Sullivan noted that Beijing has shown an interest in managing its relationship with Washington responsibly, particularly in the lead-up to the U.S. election.
However, even with this diplomatic engagement, China is well aware that a potential Trump victory could dramatically alter the trajectory of U.S.-China relations. Trump’s aggressive stance on trade, coupled with his willingness to impose tariffs indiscriminately, has made Beijing cautious. Hence, its efforts to strengthen ties with other global powers—such as India, Japan, and Australia—can be seen as a preemptive move to mitigate potential fallout from a Trump resurgence.
Despite China’s concerted efforts to repair relations with its neighbors and key trading partners, it remains unclear how far these overtures will go in changing the fundamental dynamics of its foreign relations. For example, while China has sought to stabilize ties with Australia, the country remains firmly aligned with the U.S. on security matters. Just this week, Australia’s defense minister announced a $4.7 billion deal to acquire precision-guided missiles from the U.S., citing concerns over “the greatest arms race” in the Asia-Pacific region since World War II.
India, too, remains wary of China’s intentions. While the resumption of patrols along the disputed border is a positive step, Indian officials caution that the move does not signal a broader strategic shift. Instead, India’s outreach to China is seen as a way to strengthen its own economic position, rather than a pivot away from its commitment to the U.S.-backed Quad alliance, which includes Japan and Australia.
As China continues to navigate its complex relationships with key global powers, it is clear that its charm offensive is driven by both economic necessity and geopolitical pragmatism. With its economy struggling and protectionism on the rise, China is looking to stabilize its regional ties to secure much-needed economic growth. However, the question remains: how long will these diplomatic overtures last?
If Trump returns to power, the global political landscape could shift dramatically, forcing nations to recalibrate their relationships not just with the U.S. but with China as well. For now, Beijing appears committed to positioning itself as a responsible global player—albeit one that still harbors strong territorial ambitions and a willingness to assert its interests on the world stage. Whether this charm offensive leads to lasting change in its foreign relations, or is simply a temporary recalibration in the face of uncertainty, remains to be seen.
