China was rocked earlier this month by its deadliest act of mass violence in nearly a decade. The car-ramming attack in Zhuhai city, which claimed 35 lives and injured dozens, marked a disturbing culmination of a year marred by violent episodes — many involving stabbings. These incidents have stoked national unease and placed pressure on President Xi Jinping to expand his hallmark surveillance state.
The spate of violence challenges the ruling Communist Party’s narrative of providing stability and security in exchange for citizens’ compliance with its authoritarian rule. It also threatens to expose cracks in the carefully crafted social contract that has underpinned China’s governance model for decades.
The Zhuhai attack is the worst public violence seen since 2014, when Xinjiang faced a string of terrorism-related incidents. But the recent attacks differ fundamentally: they are largely carried out by individuals with no clear affiliations or unified motivations. Some perpetrators have attributed their actions to frustrations stemming from low wages, housing woes, or perceived injustices.
While such lone-wolf attacks are sporadic and difficult to predict, they present a daunting challenge to China’s expansive surveillance infrastructure. The perpetrators’ lack of a singular ideological cause complicates efforts to preemptively identify threats.
President Xi has made it clear that maintaining social stability is a top priority. In the wake of the Zhuhai tragedy, he issued a directive to officials nationwide: “Resolve conflicts and disputes in a timely manner. Strictly prevent extreme cases, and do your best to protect the lives of the people and social stability.”
For Xi, these instructions are not new but a continuation of his long-term strategy to tighten control. Over the past decade, he has implemented a sweeping network of facial recognition cameras, ramped up internet censorship, and expanded national databases to track residents. While these measures have enhanced the state’s ability to monitor its citizens, their efficacy in preventing scattered, isolated acts of violence remains questionable.
China’s governance model relies on an implicit grand bargain: citizens trade certain freedoms for the promise of security and economic prosperity. However, as economic growth slows, this deal is increasingly under pressure.
The nation is grappling with its longest deflationary streak since 1999, compounded by a property crisis that has wiped out billions in household wealth. These economic challenges, combined with rising public frustration, have made it harder for officials to maintain stability.
Lynette Ong, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto, warns that repressive measures alone may backfire. “Unless the leadership comes to the realization that you need to go to the root cause of the problem — which is letting people release their pressure and anger and having more pressure valves — doing more repression actually will not work,” she said.
One of the tools Xi’s administration has leaned on is the “Fengqiao experience,” a Mao-era surveillance and mediation campaign. Originally designed to root out anti-party forces, it has been adapted in recent years to address local disputes and prevent small-scale disruptions from escalating.
For example, in Dingxi city in northwestern China, officials have been conducting home visits to individuals deemed at risk of committing violence. These visits aim to provide counseling and education to those displaying signs of hopelessness or paranoia.
Other areas are adopting similar grassroots strategies. Prosecutors in a Guangdong city are working to clear backlogs of cases involving public dissatisfaction with the judicial system. Their goal is to address grievances before they can fuel further unrest.
China’s vast technological resources remain a cornerstone of its surveillance efforts. Officials are now focusing on mining legal data to identify individuals who may pose a threat. Yin Bai, a senior party official overseeing law enforcement, recently advocated for enhanced data screening, analysis, and evaluation to thwart potential attackers.
However, ramping up surveillance requires funding, and local governments are already facing tight budgets. Security spending grew by just 3.1% last year — the slowest pace during Xi’s tenure, excluding the pandemic years. With public finances stretched thin, officials must balance security needs with pressing economic priorities, including stabilizing the housing market and addressing local government debt.
One area receiving particular attention is school security. Several of this year’s violent incidents have targeted students, prompting a swift response from authorities.
In Guangdong, police officers are now stationed outside schools during opening and closing hours. Some Beijing schools have increased the number of security guards and equipped them with anti-riot tools such as steel forks and batons. In Shanghai, a kindergarten has barred parents from escorting children to classrooms, citing recent violent incidents and directives from higher authorities.
For many parents, these measures are a sobering but necessary shift. “When the economy is not stable, there are a lot of crazy people,” said Vikki Shu, a mother in Shanghai. “I hope that the overall security of the school could be ramped up more.”
While China’s leaders point to rising violence in the United States as evidence of the superiority of their system, expanding domestic surveillance carries significant risks.
The public’s tolerance for state overreach was tested during Xi’s draconian Covid Zero policy, which imposed mass testing, lockdowns, and movement restrictions. Widespread protests in late 2022, some calling for Xi’s resignation, ultimately forced the government to abandon the policy.
That episode revealed the limits of the Chinese population’s patience, raising questions about whether further encroachments on personal freedoms might trigger similar backlash.
As China prepares for its Central Economic Work Conference next month, the stakes are high. Policymakers must chart a course that addresses both economic challenges and security concerns, while navigating the risks of public discontent.
With US President-elect Donald Trump set to return to office in 2025, geopolitical tensions could further complicate domestic stability efforts. Xi’s administration will need to tread carefully, balancing its commitment to control with the need to avoid overreach.
The wave of violent attacks has underscored the fragility of China’s tightly managed society. While the Communist Party’s surveillance state is unparalleled in its scope, it remains to be seen whether even this formidable apparatus can quell the underlying social tensions driving these outbursts.
For now, Chinese leaders are betting on their ability to reinforce control through both grassroots initiatives and advanced technology. But as the nation grapples with economic headwinds and rising public frustration, the question remains: can stability be maintained without addressing the deeper grievances simmering beneath the surface?
