On Wednesday, September 25, 2024, China’s military announced that it had successfully conducted a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean, marking the country’s first known ICBM test in over four decades.
This development has triggered global discussions about the state of nuclear competition and heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s new era of nuclear weapons capability signals a shift in geopolitical power dynamics, particularly with the United States, as well as concerns for regional stability.
A New Chapter in China’s ICBM Capabilities
ICBMs are designed primarily to carry nuclear warheads over long distances, making them a significant pillar of any country’s nuclear deterrence strategy. China’s latest generation ICBM, the Dongfeng-41 (DF-41), is one of the most powerful missiles in the world. Boasting an operational range of between 12,000 and 15,000 kilometers (7,500 to 9,300 miles), it can target most locations around the globe, including reaching the continental United States.
In its official statement, China’s Ministry of Defense announced that the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) had successfully launched an ICBM, carrying a simulated warhead, into the Pacific Ocean in the early hours of Wednesday. “It accurately landed in the designated sea area,” the statement claimed, although it did not specify which type of ICBM was used in the test. However, defense analysts speculate that it could very well have been the DF-41, China’s most advanced ICBM.
The Ministry of Defense emphasized that the launch was part of the annual training schedule, complying with international laws and practices. It also clarified that the test was not aimed at any specific country or region. Despite this assertion, the test appears to convey a powerful message regarding China’s advancing military capabilities, particularly as geopolitical competition intensifies between China and the United States.
China’s ICBM Development
This recent test marks China’s first ICBM launch in over 40 years. China’s first known ICBM test occurred in May 1980, when the country launched two missiles into the South Pacific in a show of force during the Cold War. At the time, the test was seen as a deterrent against the Soviet Union, signaling China’s ability to strike at long distances.
Since that period, China has been relatively quiet regarding its ICBM testing program, at least publicly. This most recent launch, however, highlights a new chapter in China’s development of long-range ballistic missiles, indicating that its ICBM program has continued to evolve over the decades in line with its broader military modernization efforts.
Nuclear Arsenal Expansion
China’s missile test occurs at a time when its nuclear capabilities are growing rapidly. In the 2023 China Military Power Report released by the Pentagon, the U.S. military expressed concerns about China’s expanding nuclear arsenal. According to the report, China had completed construction on over 300 new ICBM silos by 2022, suggesting that the country is dramatically increasing its nuclear launch capacity. The report also estimated that China possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023, a figure that could rise to over 1,000 warheads by 2030.
The potential of this growing arsenal is significant because it underscores China’s commitment to becoming a major nuclear power on the global stage. While China has historically maintained a relatively modest nuclear stockpile compared to the U.S. and Russia, these developments suggest a strategic shift toward increasing both the size and reach of its nuclear forces.
Reactions and Regional Implications
The international response to China’s missile test has been mixed but largely concerned. China’s Xinhua News Agency reported that “relevant countries” had been notified about the test launch in advance, though the exact nations were not specified. This precautionary measure reflects an effort to avoid unnecessary escalations with other global powers, particularly the U.S.
In Taiwan, a region with growing concerns about Chinese military activity, the Ministry of National Defense reported that it had recorded “intensive Chinese missile-firing activities,” but did not release further details. Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has been at the center of escalating tensions with Beijing, especially in recent years as China’s military posture in the Taiwan Strait has become increasingly assertive.
Further north, North Korea has also been conducting its own series of missile tests this month. While not directly related to China’s ICBM test, these concurrent activities have raised fears of a broader arms race in the region. North Korea’s missile tests often target shorter ranges but are seen as provocative, especially in light of the nuclear ambitions of its southern neighbor, South Korea, and its ally, the United States.
U.S. Concerns: The Arms Race and Strategic Responses
China’s latest missile test, combined with its rapid expansion of nuclear capabilities, has heightened U.S. concerns about a growing arms race between the two superpowers. Experts in military strategy and international security have weighed in on the test, noting its broader implications. Richard Fisher, a senior researcher specializing in Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, remarked that “China’s ICBM test is another reminder that the world is moving into a new era of nuclear weapon competition.”
Fisher further stressed the need for the U.S. to respond to China’s growing nuclear threat. “In order to deter China and Russia, it is necessary — vitally necessary — for the United States to increase its nuclear arsenal,” he said. The U.S., which still maintains the largest and most sophisticated nuclear stockpile in the world, has been actively modernizing its own nuclear forces in recent years. However, analysts caution that any escalation in the nuclear arms race could trigger unpredictable responses from other nuclear-armed nations.
In addition to China, Russia has been expanding and upgrading its nuclear forces, complicating the strategic landscape. Russia’s recent withdrawal from key arms control treaties, such as the New START Treaty, has further strained the framework of international nuclear non-proliferation efforts, potentially opening the door for renewed competition among nuclear powers.
China’s Strategic Motives: Power Projection and Deterrence
There are multiple strategic reasons behind China’s decision to conduct this ICBM test. First, China seeks to signal that it is a dominant military power capable of projecting force globally. The DF-41’s ability to strike targets across the world, including the U.S., solidifies China’s status as a key player in the global nuclear landscape.
Second, China is likely trying to demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of its nuclear deterrent. By publicly conducting a successful missile test, China can strengthen its position in negotiations or conflicts with other global powers. This capability also serves to bolster China’s strategic leverage in its ongoing tensions with the U.S. and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.
Escalation in the Indo-Pacific
This ICBM test arrives amid mounting tensions between China and the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region. Since April 2024, China has protested against the deployment of the U.S. Typhon Mid-Range Capability missile system in the Philippines, arguing that the missile system could destabilize the region. The Typhon system has been seen as part of the U.S.’s broader strategy to counter China’s growing influence in the South China Sea and beyond.
The militarization of the Indo-Pacific, with the U.S. forming alliances with regional powers like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, is increasingly becoming a flashpoint. China’s actions — including its territorial claims in the South China Sea, its aggressive posture toward Taiwan, and now its ICBM test — appear to reflect a broader strategy aimed at challenging U.S. military dominance in the region.
China’s Ministry of Defense has been quick to frame the test as being in compliance with international law. By informing relevant countries of the missile test beforehand and conducting the launch in a neutral part of the Pacific Ocean, China aims to position the event as a routine military exercise rather than an act of aggression.
However, questions remain about the broader implications of this test for arms control and global nuclear stability. The recent breakdown of arms control agreements, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the U.S. and Russia, has already eroded the framework of international agreements that have historically regulated missile tests and nuclear arsenals.
With both China and Russia significantly expanding their nuclear capabilities, there is an urgent need for new multilateral agreements to prevent an unchecked nuclear arms race. The United Nations and global powers will likely call for greater transparency from China, urging it to participate in future arms control negotiations.
China’s successful ICBM test serves as a stark reminder of the growing competition among nuclear powers in the 21st century. With the test launch of the DF-41 or a similar ICBM, China has signaled its intention to play a leading role in global military affairs, particularly in the context of nuclear deterrence. As tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific and global arms control frameworks falter, the world appears to be entering a new era of nuclear competition.
For the U.S., this development raises difficult questions about how to respond to the rapidly shifting balance of power. Should the U.S. seek to expand its nuclear capabilities, or pursue renewed efforts at arms control? The answers to these questions will have profound implications for global security in the years to come.
