In a scenario that underscores the strategic tensions in the Pacific, Chinese researchers recently conducted a simulated aerial battle between their newly unveiled twin-seater J-20S stealth fighter and the US F-22 Raptor. The simulated confrontation, reportedly set in the skies north of Taiwan, highlighted the evolving dynamics of modern air combat and showcased China’s growing capabilities in stealth technology and manned-unmanned aerial collaboration.
This high-stakes simulation was carried out by a team led by Zhang Dong, an associate professor at Northwestern Polytechnical University, a hub for advanced military research. The results, as reported by the South China Morning Post, revealed a significant advantage for the Chinese aircraft in scenarios that involved loyal wingman drones, raising questions about the future of air dominance in the region.
For years, analysts have predicted that a potential flashpoint in the Taiwan Strait could see direct engagement between the advanced stealth fighters of China and the United States. Both nations have heavily invested in fifth-generation fighter technology, with the US boasting the battle-tested F-22 and F-35, while China has developed the J-20 to challenge American air superiority.
The recently unveiled J-20S variant represents a leap forward for China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). Its twin-seater configuration allows one pilot to focus on flight and weapons systems, while the other manages communication and coordination with unmanned aerial systems (UAS), commonly referred to as loyal wingman drones. This innovative design is tailored for the complexity of manned-unmanned collaborative combat.
Using a cutting-edge digital simulation platform, Zhang’s team replicated real-world combat dynamics. The system incorporated six-degree-of-freedom models of actual fighter jets, sensor data, and missile characteristics to simulate engagements with high fidelity. Despite intentionally setting the J-20’s radar and stealth capabilities lower than those of the F-22, the Chinese aircraft achieved a staggering 95% win rate.
This success was attributed to the J-20’s ability to integrate with loyal wingman drones. These drones served multiple roles: spotting targets, drawing enemy fire, and executing multidirectional attacks. The J-20 itself, operating as a command and strike platform, delivered decisive blows in the simulated battles.
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The J-20S was recently showcased at the China Airshow in Zhuhai, where its twin-seater configuration drew widespread attention. Chinese state media lauded its enhanced capabilities in tactical command, situational awareness, and electronic warfare. These features are particularly suited for leveraging drone swarms, which could significantly augment the firepower and situational awareness of manned aircraft.
- Increased Firepower: Each drone can carry multiple precision-guided munitions, effectively multiplying the strike capacity of a single aircraft.
- Diversified Roles: Drones can perform early-warning missions, battlefield surveillance, and electronic disruption, freeing up manned pilots to focus on tactical decision-making.
- Cost-Effective Combat: Low-cost drones can act as decoys or sacrificial assets, preserving the more expensive manned fighters.
In their peer-reviewed paper published in Systems Engineering and Electronics, Zhang’s team emphasized the transformative impact of manned-unmanned collaboration. “Rapid advancements in information and drone technology have caused a paradigm shift in the landscape of modern air combat,” the authors wrote. While acknowledging current limitations in drone autonomy, they highlighted manned-unmanned teaming as a practical solution for bridging the gap.
The study noted that the two pilots in the J-20S have a demanding task load: integrating data from satellites, radars, and drones; evaluating battlefield conditions; and making split-second decisions about attacks and defenses. This operational complexity is offset by the tactical advantages offered by drone collaboration.
The United States is not standing still in the race for air superiority. The US Air Force (USAF) has been actively developing its own loyal wingman drones under the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. The Pentagon plans to allocate over $6 billion to these efforts between 2023 and 2028.
Incremental Development: Companies like Anduril and General Atomics are working on initial prototypes, with flight tests expected soon. A second phase, slated for 2025, will expand the program’s scope.
- Versatile Roles for Drones: CCAs are envisioned as modular platforms capable of roles such as electronic warfare, surveillance, and weapons delivery.
- Stealth and Autonomy: These drones will operate with greater autonomy, allowing pilots to function as mission commanders overseeing multiple assets.
The XQ-58A Valkyrie, a loyal wingman drone, has already demonstrated compatibility with the F-22 and F-35 in test flights, showcasing the potential of manned-unmanned teaming.
Despite the impressive results of China’s simulations, the F-22 remains a formidable opponent. Renowned for its super-maneuverability, advanced stealth, and cutting-edge radar, the Raptor has long been the benchmark for fifth-generation fighters. Its AIM-120C missiles and superior detection capabilities make it a potent adversary in any engagement.
However, the Chinese simulations highlighted some limitations. In scenarios without drones, the J-20 had less than a 10% chance of defeating the F-22. The addition of loyal wingman drones shifted the balance significantly, emphasizing the importance of integrating unmanned systems in future conflicts.
Not all experts are convinced by the simulation results. A veteran PLA watcher noted that while the J-20S’s twin-seater design offers advantages in specific missions, it comes with trade-offs. The additional seat reduces internal space, potentially limiting fuel capacity, weapons payload, and stealth performance.
“It’s just one paper out of many that are published about air combat in the world,” the analyst remarked, cautioning against overestimating the results. They acknowledged, however, that manned-unmanned collaboration represents the future of air combat and that China’s focus on this area is a strategic necessity.
China’s sustained efforts to match or exceed the capabilities of the F-22 are emblematic of its broader ambitions. From developing quantum radar systems to testing hypersonic missiles designed to counter the Raptor, Beijing’s focus on surpassing American air power is clear.
The J-20 itself is often portrayed as a direct answer to the F-22, with Chinese scientists striving to match its super-maneuverability and other advanced features. The recent simulation results, while contested, highlight the progress China has made in closing the gap.
