As tensions escalate on the Korean Peninsula, Beijing is navigating a complex diplomatic landscape involving both Pyongyang and Seoul, amid growing fears of a looming nuclear crisis. Analysts caution that there is a “significant possibility” of further provocations by North Korea ahead of the US elections in November, urging China to intensify its efforts to mitigate the risk of escalation.

Since 2022, tensions have flared due to North Korea’s accelerated missile tests, reaching a boiling point in January when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared Seoul his regime’s “principal enemy,” abandoning his predecessor’s goals of reconciliation and reunification. This aggressive stance has been accompanied by a series of provocations, including sending balloons carrying trash over the border, prompting South Korea to suspend a 2018 tension-reducing agreement and resume anti-Pyongyang loudspeaker broadcasts.

In response, South Korea conducted its first live-fire drills with the US in seven years, deploying precision-guided bunker-buster bombs. Joseph Yun, a senior adviser at the US Institute of Peace and former US special representative for North Korea policy, described the situation as “dangerous” and warned of potential provocations by Pyongyang, especially during an American presidential election year.

US intelligence officials believe North Korea may be planning a “most provocative” military action at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin to create turmoil ahead of the US elections. This possibility aligns with the strategic interests of both North Korea and Russia, according to Seong-hyon Lee, a South Korean visiting scholar at Harvard University’s Asia Centre.

Beijing’s Diplomatic Dilemma

Beijing, North Korea’s primary diplomatic and economic supporter, has traditionally leveraged its relationship with Pyongyang in its dealings with Washington and Seoul. However, its influence depends on its ability to restrain North Korea’s belligerence. The recent trilateral summit between China, South Korea, and Japan, where denuclearisation was a key topic, has further complicated Beijing’s position. North Korea condemned the summit’s joint statement on denuclearisation as a “grave political provocation and sovereignty violation.”

Shi Yinhong, an international affairs expert at Beijing’s Renmin University, noted that Beijing’s acceptance of the denuclearisation language at the summit was reluctant and driven by the need to maintain diplomatic engagement with Japan and South Korea. Despite this, China’s pro-Pyongyang stance has led to deteriorating relations with South Korea, which has increasingly aligned itself with the US and Japan.

The Russia-North Korea Military Pact

Further complicating matters for Beijing is the deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow. During a recent high-profile visit to North Korea, Putin signed a mutual defence agreement with Kim, reviving a Cold War-era pledge for “military and other assistance” in the event of war. Kim expressed strong support for Putin’s war in Ukraine, while North Korea reportedly supplies Russia with conventional weapons in exchange for military technology and economic aid.

Joseph DeTrani, former US special envoy for the six-party talks with North Korea, emphasized that while China opposes further sanctions against North Korea at the UN alongside Russia, it does not support North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. He argued that China’s strategic interests are better served by stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Yun concurred, stating that Beijing is more concerned about the growing military ties between Pyongyang and Moscow than North Korea’s nuclear tests. The mutual defence pact between Russia and North Korea signals a significant shift in regional dynamics, potentially undermining China’s influence over Pyongyang.

Economic and Diplomatic Implications

Economically, the Russia-North Korea partnership is also noteworthy. Putin persuaded Kim to agree to build a new cross-border vehicle bridge over the Tumen River, enhancing trade routes and potentially allowing Chinese ships to navigate to the Sea of Japan. This infrastructure project symbolizes the strengthening economic ties between Russia and North Korea, further complicating China’s strategic calculations.

Diplomatically, China has attempted to mediate and de-escalate the situation. In a recent vice-ministerial level dialogue in Seoul, Chinese and South Korean officials emphasized the need to cool down tensions and avoid further confrontation. South Korea urged China to play a constructive role in promoting peace and stability, warning that North Korea-Russia military cooperation threatens regional stability and goes against China’s interests.

While some experts remain pessimistic about the resumption of direct disarmament talks between Pyongyang and Washington, others see potential in China’s diplomatic efforts. DeTrani believes that complete and verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula remains a viable option for future negotiations, with China playing a supportive role. However, the growing alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow poses significant challenges.

According to Wooyeal Paik, deputy director of the Yonsei Institute of North Korean Studies in Seoul, China is in a dilemma. For the first time, China and Russia diverge in their approach to North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. Russia views North Korea’s nuclear arsenal as a leverage tool, while China sees it as a destabilizing factor. This divergence complicates Beijing’s ability to manage its relationships with both Pyongyang and Moscow.

As the Korean Peninsula faces heightened tensions and the potential for further provocations by North Korea, China’s diplomatic and strategic calculations are under intense scrutiny. The deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow further complicates Beijing’s efforts to maintain regional stability and influence. While some analysts remain hopeful about China’s ability to mediate and de-escalate the situation, the path forward is fraught with challenges, requiring careful navigation of a complex and volatile geopolitical landscape.

China’s ability to balance its relationships with both North and South Korea, while managing its strategic interests in the face of a strengthening Russia-North Korea alliance, will be crucial in determining the future stability of the Korean Peninsula.