• Beijing Warns Taipei: “Step Back from the Precipice”

China’s military issued a stark warning on Sunday, declaring that it would further tighten its “noose” around Taiwan if separatist activities on the island escalate. The message, delivered during the country’s annual “Two Sessions” political gathering, underscored Beijing’s unwavering stance on reunification and its increasing pressure on Taiwan’s authorities.

“The more rampant ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists become, the tighter the noose around their necks and the sharper the sword hanging over their heads will be,” said army spokesman Wu Qian in an interview with state broadcaster CCTV.

The latest remarks mark an escalation in Beijing’s rhetoric and reflect its growing impatience with Taiwan’s resistance to unification. Wu urged pro-independence forces in Taiwan to reconsider their actions, likening their current trajectory to a rider galloping toward a cliff.

“You’ve ridden your steed to a precipice of a cliff, but behind you lies land — if you persist in taking the wrong course, you will meet a dead end,” Wu said.

China’s Military Buildup

China has intensified its military activities around Taiwan over the past few years, conducting frequent naval patrols, aerial incursions, and large-scale military drills aimed at demonstrating its ability to encircle and strike the island. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has also modernized its forces at a rapid pace, enhancing its capability to launch amphibious assaults, missile strikes, and electronic warfare operations.

The latest warning coincides with China’s announcement of a 7.2 percent increase in its defense budget for 2025. The increase, which mirrors last year’s defense spending hike, is part of Beijing’s broader effort to expand and modernize its military forces amid intensifying strategic competition with the United States.

Wu Qian defended the budget increase as “limited… reasonable and stable,” arguing that the additional funds would be used to enhance China’s reconnaissance, joint strike, and battlefield support capabilities.

“The PLA is a force of action in countering separatism and promoting reunification,” Wu said, emphasizing China’s resolve to bring Taiwan under its control, by force if necessary.

U.S.-China Rivalry and Taiwan

The United States, Taiwan’s primary backer and arms supplier, has repeatedly expressed concerns over Beijing’s growing military assertiveness. Washington has reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s security under the Taiwan Relations Act, pledging to provide the island with the necessary means to defend itself.

Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy with a population of 23 million, has resisted China’s calls for reunification, with polls consistently showing that a majority of its people reject the idea of coming under Beijing’s rule.

Taiwanese officials have decried China’s military maneuvers as acts of intimidation. Last month, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense condemned China’s “live-fire” exercises near its southern waters, calling them provocations aimed at destabilizing the region. Beijing, however, dismissed the criticism, insisting that the drills were part of routine military operations.

With tensions running high, the risk of a military conflict between China and Taiwan, potentially drawing in the United States and its allies, remains a serious concern.

China has the world’s second-largest defense budget, behind only the United States. In 2025, its defense spending will reach 1.78 trillion yuan ($245.7 billion), a figure that, while still less than a third of Washington’s military budget, has raised alarm bells across the Indo-Pacific region.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China’s defense budget in 2024 accounted for about 1.6 percent of its GDP—far less than the U.S. or Russia. However, Beijing’s rapid military expansion has fueled concerns in Washington, Tokyo, and other regional capitals.

China’s growing military footprint in the South China Sea has also sparked tensions with neighboring countries. Beijing claims almost the entire sea as its territory, despite a 2016 international arbitration ruling that rejected its claims. The Chinese military has built artificial islands, installed military infrastructure, and engaged in frequent confrontations with the navies of the Philippines, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian nations.

Beijing’s Justification: “Defensive” Posture or Expansionism?

China insists that its military expansion is defensive in nature and aimed at preserving its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Army spokesman Wu Qian described China as facing “one of the most complex neighboring security situations in the world,” citing “severe challenges” from external forces.

However, analysts and foreign governments see Beijing’s military buildup as part of a broader strategy to establish regional dominance and deter U.S. influence in Asia.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated Beijing’s stance on Taiwan, asserting that the island’s reunification with the mainland was inevitable.

“Using Taiwan to control China is just like trying to stop a car with the arm of a mantis,” Wang said at a press conference on Friday, dismissing U.S. efforts to bolster Taiwan’s defenses.

Taiwanese leaders have remained defiant in the face of Beijing’s threats. President Lai Ching-te, who will take office in May 2025 following his election victory earlier this year, has vowed to strengthen Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities and deepen ties with the international community.

“We will not bow to pressure, nor will we abandon our way of life and democratic values,” Taiwan’s outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen said in a recent speech.

Taiwan’s government has sought to boost defense spending, acquire advanced weaponry from the U.S., and enhance military cooperation with like-minded allies, including Japan and Australia. Taipei has also worked to diversify its diplomatic partnerships, seeking support from countries wary of China’s expanding influence.

Is an Invasion Imminent?

While Beijing has not set a specific timeline for reunification, Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly stated that the Taiwan issue cannot be postponed indefinitely. Some military analysts believe China could attempt a blockade or full-scale invasion by the end of the decade if peaceful reunification remains out of reach.

However, an invasion of Taiwan would be a high-risk gamble for Beijing. The island’s mountainous terrain, fortified defenses, and strong U.S. military presence in the region make it a formidable target. Any military action would likely trigger a global crisis, disrupt international trade, and draw in major powers, including the U.S. and its allies.

For now, China appears to be relying on a strategy of intimidation, economic coercion, and military posturing to wear down Taiwan’s resistance and weaken its international support. China’s latest warning to Taiwan underscores its determination to assert control over the island, but the path to reunification remains fraught with challenges. While Beijing’s military buildup continues at a rapid pace, Taiwan’s resolve to maintain its autonomy remains firm.