In early 2022, as Russia prepared to invade Ukraine, China made headlines with a bold declaration: it was forging a “no-limits friendship” with Russia. This pact, framed around extensive collaboration in trade, energy, and security, symbolized a growing closeness between two of the world’s most powerful nations. However, over two years into the war, the meaning and implications of this “no-limits” partnership have shifted. As Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine drags on, Beijing’s stance has subtly evolved. Once eager to trumpet its alignment with Moscow, China is now adopting a more cautious approach, carefully balancing its relations with Russia and the West.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin first announced their “no-limits” friendship, it seemed to signal a new era of cooperation. The two nations projected an image of solidarity, with pledges of strategic alignment, economic partnership, and a shared stance on global security issues. But in the months that followed, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine became a prolonged and bloody conflict, China’s enthusiasm for this unlimited partnership began to wane.
The tone of the partnership has softened, and Beijing’s public rhetoric is more guarded. Notably, the “no-limits” language, once so prominent, was conspicuously absent from a Sino-Russian joint statement in May 2023. This subtle shift reflects China’s growing discomfort with the unpredictable trajectory of Russia’s war and its implications for China’s own global standing.
China’s evolving position on its relationship with Russia highlights a delicate balancing act. On one hand, Beijing benefits from maintaining strong ties with Russia, particularly in areas such as energy and military cooperation. On the other hand, China is wary of being seen as a decisive enabler of Russia’s aggression, a stance that could jeopardize its relations with key Western markets and partners.
The changing nature of this relationship was evident during Putin’s visit to China in May 2023. While the Russian leader expressed warm sentiments, calling Xi his “close brother,” the Chinese president’s response was notably more reserved, referring to Putin simply as a “good friend and a good neighbor.” This subdued reception underscores China’s growing wariness of being too closely aligned with Russia as the war in Ukraine drags on.
In China, discussions about the country’s relationship with Russia have increasingly become a subject of public debate. This marks a significant departure from early 2022 when dissenting voices were swiftly silenced. For instance, when six prominent Chinese historians wrote a joint letter opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the government quickly censored the letter and issued warnings to the scholars involved.
Now, however, there is a noticeable shift. Conversations about China’s alignment with Moscow are taking place more openly, even among those previously censored. Some advocate for deepening ties with Russia, pushing for a more formal alliance, while others are urging caution, emphasizing the risks of over-commitment to an increasingly unstable partner.
The concerns of China’s scholars are particularly illuminating. Prominent voices such as Shen Dingli, a leading expert on Chinese security strategy, have been vocal about the risks of China being perceived as complicit in Russia’s actions. Shen has noted that China does not want to be seen as collaborating with Russia against Ukraine or any other country. His sentiments echo those of Fu Cong, China’s former ambassador to the European Union, who dismissed the “no-limits” rhetoric as mere posturing.
Even more telling was the swift reaction to Putin’s use of the term “ally” when referring to China during a visit to Russia’s far eastern region in August 2023. Chinese scholars were quick to clarify that this was not an official endorsement of a formal alliance, signaling Beijing’s reluctance to be tied too closely to Russia in the international arena.
The role of scholars like Shen and others is significant, as many are affiliated with government-funded universities and institutions. Their views often reflect broader strategic thinking within Beijing’s leadership, offering insight into the evolving calculations driving China’s foreign policy.
China’s more cautious stance on its relationship with Russia is driven by several key factors, ranging from concerns about Russia’s internal stability to broader geopolitical and economic calculations. Together, these factors have prompted a reassessment of the “no-limits” friendship that was once so enthusiastically promoted.
One of the most significant drivers of China’s re-evaluation is growing skepticism about Russia’s state capacity. The political and military instability within Russia has become a pressing concern for Chinese policymakers. The mutiny by the Wagner Group in 2023, which exposed deep fissures within the Russian military establishment, was a key moment that led to critical reassessments in Beijing. For China, these internal conflicts raise questions about Russia’s long-term stability and reliability as a strategic partner.
Feng Yujun, a leading scholar from Fudan University, has been outspoken in his criticism of Russia’s handling of the war and its broader domestic challenges. Feng argued that the Wagner rebellion revealed fundamental weaknesses within the Russian state. He warned that every time Russia has faced both internal and external crises in its history, its regimes have become less stable. More recently, Feng has gone even further, predicting that Russia is likely to be defeated in Ukraine, and has urged China to distance itself from Moscow to avoid being dragged into its failures.
The economic relationship between China and Russia has also proven to be more complex than initially anticipated. While trade between the two countries reached a record US$240 billion in 2023, growth has slowed in 2024. Chinese financial institutions, wary of being entangled in Western sanctions, have limited their exposure to Russia, further complicating the trade relationship.
China’s overall trade with Russia is heavily imbalanced. Russia accounts for only 4% of China’s total trade, while China makes up nearly 22% of Russia’s trade. This disparity has prompted Chinese experts to caution against over-reliance on Russia. Many are now calling for a diversification of trade relationships, particularly with neighboring countries that offer more stable economic prospects.
There are also concerns that Russia is using its vast natural resources, particularly energy, as a bargaining chip to extract more favorable terms from China. This dynamic has added further strain to the relationship, as China grapples with the implications of Russia’s strategic resource-driven diplomacy.
Another significant factor driving the re-evaluation of the China-Russia relationship is the growing recognition of their diverging international goals. While both countries share a mutual interest in countering Western influence, their broader visions for the future of the global order differ significantly.
Russia, under Putin’s leadership, has sought to challenge and ultimately dismantle the current international system, aiming to replace it with a new order more favorable to its interests. In contrast, China’s strategy has been to work within the existing system, seeking to reform and reshape global institutions to reflect its rising power and influence.
Zhao Long, deputy director of the Shanghai Institute of International Relations, has pointed out this fundamental divergence. While Russia views the current international order as something to be torn down, China sees it as a platform for its ascent, one in which it can gain a more prominent role without entirely disrupting the system.
Shi Yinhong, a strategist at Renmin University, has highlighted another critical point of divergence: regional security. Russia has consistently avoided offering any concrete support to China in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. Similarly, China has maintained a policy of non-intervention in Russia’s war in Ukraine. This mutual wariness, Shi argues, creates an “unbridgeable gap” between the two nations, preventing the formation of a deeper military alliance.
As the war in Ukraine drags on and Russia faces increasing challenges both at home and abroad, China’s leaders are carefully recalibrating their approach to the partnership. Scholars like Feng Yujun have warned that China risks being “led by the nose” by Russia, despite its stronger economic position. Feng argues that history has shown alliances with Russia tend to end badly for China, citing past Sino-Russian entanglements that have had negative consequences for Beijing.
At the same time, China recognizes the importance of maintaining a constructive relationship with Russia, particularly as the global geopolitical landscape becomes increasingly polarized. The rivalry between the United States and China has provided Russia with opportunities to exploit divisions and play both sides, benefiting from its position as a third player in this global competition.
China’s leaders are thus walking a fine line, seeking to maintain the partnership with Russia without fully committing to a formal alliance that could jeopardize their broader international goals. The “no-limits” friendship has evolved into a more cautious and calculated relationship, one marked by strategic ambiguity.
The “no-limits” friendship between China and Russia, once celebrated with great fanfare, has undergone a significant transformation over the past two years. As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, Beijing has grown more wary of being too closely associated with Moscow’s faltering military campaign. Domestic debate within China has intensified, with scholars openly questioning the wisdom of deeper alignment with Russia. Meanwhile, economic and geopolitical realities have further complicated the relationship.
As China navigates the complexities of its partnership with Russia, it remains focused on maintaining its long-term strategic interests, both regionally and globally. The future of Sino-Russian relations will likely continue to be defined by this careful balancing act, as Beijing seeks to manage its ties with Moscow while avoiding conflict with the West.
