In a sweeping new assessment, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has laid out a stark view of China’s rapid nuclear expansion, marking what it calls the “most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of nuclear forces in history.” This unclassified report, entitled Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors and Regional Rivals, is the second installment in a series of assessments on nuclear threats and builds on the agency’s first volume released in 2018.
As tensions mount between the U.S. and China, the report presents significant details about China’s swift and large-scale nuclear buildup, including advancements across land, sea, and air-based delivery platforms. This ambitious endeavor, the report suggests, may shift the global nuclear balance, underscoring the strategic competition between Beijing and Washington.
According to the report, China’s nuclear capabilities have far surpassed previous estimates from 2018. Beijing’s current nuclear stockpile has exceeded 500 deliverable nuclear warheads, a figure expected to more than double to over 1,000 warheads by 2030. This buildup has included efforts across all branches of its “nuclear triad”—a combination of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and a new fleet of bombers equipped to carry air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs).
The DIA highlights that China’s growing arsenal includes around 300 newly developed missile silos and a fleet of road-mobile ICBMs, significantly enhancing its first and second-strike capabilities. Additionally, China is making substantial investments in long-range submarine-launched ballistic missiles, particularly the JL-3 missile with the capability to target the continental United States from a safer, protected location within the South China Sea.
The report underscores the rapid development of China’s ICBM technology, with a special emphasis on new systems like the DF-41, a road-mobile ICBM with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) capabilities. “This system likely carries no more than three warheads per missile and offers improved range and accuracy compared to its predecessors,” the DIA report states, highlighting China’s trajectory toward increasingly sophisticated nuclear technology.
The DIA report emphasizes that this rapid buildup reflects China’s intentions to compete strategically with the U.S., a sentiment backed by Beijing’s own statements regarding its military objectives. The report states: “China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history—almost certainly driven by an aim for enduring strategic competition with the U.S.”
While the United States and Russia maintain significantly larger stockpiles, each possessing around 3,750 and 4,489 nuclear warheads respectively, China’s accelerating pace hints at a future where it may rival the nuclear capabilities of either superpower. However, the DIA report notes that China has yet to publicly establish a ceiling for its nuclear stockpile, raising questions about the ultimate scale of its ambitions. This uncertainty has sparked concerns within the U.S. that, if unchecked, China’s nuclear growth could present unprecedented challenges to international stability.
China’s pursuit of a fully operational “nuclear triad” has introduced new dimensions to its military strategy. Previously focused on land-based missiles, Beijing’s rapid improvements to its air and sea-based platforms mark a strategic expansion aimed at enhancing flexibility and deterrence.
One key development in China’s nuclear strategy has been the introduction of the H-6N bomber, a nuclear-capable platform designed to carry air-launched ballistic missiles. This advancement, demonstrated publicly at the 2019 National Day Parade, is part of a broader push to establish a credible air-based deterrent. The bomber’s air-refueling capability extends its operational range, adding a new layer to China’s nuclear posture that had previously been limited.
China’s navy has also made considerable strides, with the deployment of two additional Type 094 JIN-class submarines, which can carry JL-2 SLBMs. These submarines enable China to maintain a continuous deterrence patrol, reinforcing its second-strike capability. Furthermore, China has improved upon the JL-2 missile with the more advanced JL-3, which offers a longer range and can reach the U.S. mainland from more protected positions in the South China Sea.
China’s land-based ICBM expansion remains at the core of its nuclear deterrent. The DIA report highlights the DF-41, China’s first road-mobile ICBM with MIRV capability, as a transformative element. With increased range and accuracy over earlier DF-31 variants, the DF-41 signals China’s commitment to a robust land-based nuclear arsenal. Additionally, the report notes the development of approximately 300 missile silos, intended to house new solid and liquid-fueled ICBMs, which may further expand China’s striking capacity.
Historically, China has maintained a nuclear doctrine based on a “no first use” (NFU) policy, meaning it would only use nuclear weapons in retaliation. However, the DIA report suggests that China’s nuclear strategy may allow for flexibility under certain conditions. Specifically, it posits that China might consider a nuclear response if a conventional attack threatens the survivability of its nuclear forces or if conventional strikes produce effects comparable to a nuclear assault.
This potential shift in doctrine has raised concerns that Beijing’s strategy could evolve to include a nuclear option if it faces significant conventional losses, such as in a conflict over Taiwan. “Beijing would likely contemplate the use of its nuclear arsenal should a conventional military defeat in Taiwan pose a serious threat to the regime’s existence,” the report states.
China’s nuclear modernization has also raised alarms in the context of Taiwan. As the Chinese Communist Party continues to view Taiwan as a breakaway province, analysts have warned that a conflict over Taiwan could rapidly escalate into a regionwide confrontation involving the United States. Given China’s advanced nuclear deterrent, any potential U.S. intervention in Taiwan would involve heightened nuclear risks, according to the report.
The report speculates that Beijing’s pursuit of an enhanced nuclear deterrent could embolden its stance on Taiwan, increasing the likelihood of escalation. “Beijing’s pursuit of enhanced nuclear deterrence over the next decade probably will increase leadership confidence—and the risk of miscalculation—as the PLA makes gradual improvements in its ability to signal and counter the U.S.,” the report cautions.
The release of the DIA report has intensified the already strained relationship between the United States and China. In response, Chinese officials have criticized the assessment, accusing the U.S. of “peddling false narratives” to inhibit China’s military growth. In a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, a spokesperson claimed, “On the 2022 assertions made by U.S. officials that China is expanding dramatically its nuclear capabilities, first, let me say that this is untrue.”
However, the DIA report cites considerable evidence of China’s expansive nuclear buildup, including satellite imagery from 2021 that revealed three new missile silo fields in northwestern China. It argues that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is likely dedicated to developing a nuclear arsenal sufficient to counterbalance, or at least mitigate, the perceived military advantages of the United States.
While China remains the focal point of the DIA’s report, the assessment also addresses growing nuclear threats from Russia, North Korea, and Iran. For instance, the report states that since Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian leaders have frequently referenced their nuclear arsenal to deter Western intervention. Additionally, North Korea’s continued missile tests in 2022, with over 150 launches, demonstrate its ongoing efforts to threaten the U.S. and its allies.
Iran, while not currently possessing nuclear weapons, is flagged as a potential threat due to its enrichment of uranium beyond the limits set by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). “Tehran continues to stockpile enriched uranium far in excess of the JCPOA limits, shortening the time required to produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear device,” the report states, signaling growing concerns over Iran’s intentions.
The report’s conclusion calls for increased attention to the risks of nuclear proliferation and the potential for miscalculation. As China continues to expand its nuclear arsenal, experts warn that the U.S. and its allies must engage in new diplomatic efforts to prevent a destabilizing arms race. The report’s findings are likely to influence U.S. defense and foreign policy, potentially prompting the Pentagon to seek strategic adjustments to deter China’s nuclear expansion.
The release of the DIA report marks a significant moment in the increasingly complex U.S.-China relationship. As Beijing’s nuclear capabilities continue to grow, U.S. officials will face critical decisions regarding military posture, diplomatic engagement, and strategic deterrence. With both sides seemingly committed to a prolonged strategic competition, the stakes of nuclear escalation have become more profound than ever.
The DIA report warns of the potential consequences of this nuclear arms race, emphasizing that China’s unprecedented nuclear expansion could raise the risks of miscalculations or confrontations in the coming years. As China moves forward with its ambitious nuclear plans, how the U.S. and China manage their rivalry will shape the future of global stability.
