In recent years, China has been expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal at an unprecedented pace, raising concerns about the shifting balance of global nuclear power. This rapid advancement includes the development of newer missiles, submarines, strategic bombers, and unmanned vehicles, all in line with President Xi Jinping’s 2022 assertion to “elevate our people’s armed forces to world-class standards.”

Alongside these quantitative developments, China has also integrated emerging technologies into its nuclear force structure, potentially signaling a shift in its nuclear posture to a more aggressive launch-on-warning (LOW) stance. Despite these changes, Beijing maintains that its no-first-use policy remains unchanged, with a commitment to keeping its nuclear capabilities at the “minimum level required for national security.”

China’s Hypersonic Missile Developments

China has taken a leading role in the development and deployment of hypersonic missile systems, further expanding its missile capabilities. These advancements include two major categories of hypersonic missiles: hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) mounted on ballistic missiles and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs). China has been testing its DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle since 2014, and in testimony to the U.S. Congress, Paul Freisthler, Chief Scientist at the Defense Intelligence Agency, confirmed that China has developed both conventional and nuclear-armed hypersonic missile technologies.

Hypersonic glide vehicles offer several strategic advantages, particularly their ability to evade existing missile defense systems. China successfully deployed the DF-17 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle in 2020, with a reported range of 1,800 to 2,500 kilometers. The DF-17 is capable of carrying either conventional or nuclear payloads, and according to a leaked intelligence report in 2023, China is also developing a longer-range hypersonic missile, the DF-27, with a potential range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers. This missile could also carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.

China’s hypersonic cruise missile capabilities are equally advanced. In 2018, the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics tested the Xingkong-2 (Starry Sky-2) waverider hypersonic flight vehicle, believed to have a range of 700–800 kilometers and a maximum speed of Mach 6. These hypersonic advancements reflect China’s intent to outpace U.S. missile defense systems, creating a formidable new layer of nuclear deterrence.

In August 2021, China tested its fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS), where a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile was launched into orbit and then deorbited to strike a target. Covering a distance of 40,000 kilometers in over 100 minutes, this test demonstrated China’s growing capability to bypass traditional missile defense systems. The technology behind FOBS is not new—it was first developed during the Cold War by the Soviet Union—but China’s combination of this system with hypersonic glide vehicles represents a significant leap in nuclear delivery mechanisms.

FOBS operates by placing nuclear weapons in low-Earth orbit, where they do not complete a full orbit before reentering the atmosphere to strike their target. The Outer Space Treaty prohibits the weaponization of space, but FOBS sidesteps this by delivering weapons from space rather than maintaining them there indefinitely.

China’s Expanding Nuclear Arsenal

According to a 2024 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China’s nuclear warhead stockpile has reached approximately 500, with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) predicting this number could rise to 1,000 by 2030. While China has not officially confirmed or denied these estimates, satellite imagery and other data suggest significant growth in its nuclear infrastructure. Notably, China has been constructing around 350 missile silos in its northwestern desert regions, a major step toward bolstering its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities. SIPRI data indicates that China now possesses approximately 400 ICBMs.

The rapid development of China’s nuclear infrastructure also extends to its nuclear testing site at Lop Nur and its production of plutonium through fast breeder reactors, which could further increase its warhead production capacity.

One of the most significant debates surrounding China’s nuclear expansion is whether it is shifting its nuclear posture to a launch-on-warning (LOW) stance. The DoD’s 2024 report claims that China may be adopting a posture known as an “early warning counterstrike,” which would allow it to launch a nuclear attack based on the detection of incoming missiles, even before they strike Chinese territory. Until recently, China’s nuclear weapons and delivery systems were kept unmated and off-alert, meaning they could not be launched quickly. However, this shift indicates a more aggressive stance that could increase the risk of nuclear miscalculations.

Chinese military documents such as the 2020 edition of The Science of Military Strategy discuss the need for a high-alert state for nuclear weapons, likening China’s response capabilities to those of the U.S. and Russia. This new level of preparedness, combined with advances in ground and space-based sensor technology, may enable China to implement a launch-on-warning posture in the near future.

U.S. Response and the Growing Arms Race

In response to China’s advancements, the U.S. has been working to modernize its own missile and nuclear capabilities. Following its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, the U.S. began developing intermediate-range missiles and has since indicated plans to deploy these systems in the Indo-Pacific region. In 2023, General Charles Flynn, Commanding General of the United States Army Pacific, confirmed U.S. intentions to deploy land-based Tomahawk missiles (with a range of 2,500 kilometers) and SM-6 missiles (with a range of 370 kilometers) in the region.

Furthermore, the U.S. is strengthening its Command and Control (C2) capabilities through the Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) strategy, which leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning to maintain an information advantage in cyber, space, and the electromagnetic spectrum. The U.S. is also modernizing its missile defense systems to counter potential threats from China’s hypersonic and other advanced missile technologies.

Implications for India

For India, China’s growing nuclear capabilities present significant challenges, especially given the existing nuclear dynamics with Pakistan. Historically, China has always maintained a larger nuclear arsenal than India, but the gap between the two countries is now widening at an alarming rate. With China’s stockpile expected to surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030, India must reassess its nuclear strategy to ensure a credible second-strike capability.

India’s no-first-use policy remains intact, and the country’s nuclear doctrine emphasizes maintaining a minimum credible deterrent. However, given China’s advances in hypersonic weapons, MIRVs, and potentially LOW postures, India must consider innovative ways to disperse its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems across the country to ensure survivability in the event of a first strike. K. Subrahmanyam, one of India’s foremost strategic thinkers, once recommended that India maintain at least 500 warheads dispersed over vast areas to provide a credible deterrent.

Additionally, India’s nuclear triad, including its ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), plays a critical role in maintaining deterrence. The SSBNs offer survivability in the event of a nuclear strike and enhance the credibility of India’s second-strike capabilities. As China continues to modernize its own SSBN fleet and deploy new missile technologies, India must keep pace to prevent nuclear coercion.

China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal marks a significant departure from its previous commitment to minimum deterrence. While China still officially adheres to its no-first-use policy, the sheer number of warheads being produced, coupled with the development of advanced missile technologies, suggests that the country is preparing for a more aggressive nuclear posture. The potential shift to a launch-on-warning stance further complicates the global security environment, increasing the risk of miscalculations and nuclear escalation.

For the U.S., China’s nuclear advancements represent a direct challenge to its strategic dominance in the Indo-Pacific. The arms race between the two countries is intensifying, with both sides developing new weapons and countermeasures. The deployment of U.S. intermediate-range missiles in the region, along with improvements in missile defense and C2 capabilities, signals that Washington is preparing for a long-term strategic competition with Beijing.

For India, China’s growing nuclear capabilities are a pressing concern. As the gap between India’s and China’s nuclear arsenals widens, India must invest in modernizing its own deterrence capabilities while maintaining a robust and credible second-strike force. The stability-instability paradox in the India-China nuclear dyad makes conventional conflict more likely, but nuclear deterrence will continue to play a crucial role in preventing all-out war.
China’s nuclear modernization is reshaping the global security landscape, forcing countries like India and the U.S. to recalibrate their own defense strategies to navigate the challenges of this new era.