China conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test last month in the South Pacific, its first in over four decades. This test, which took place on September 25, has sparked widespread discussions about Beijing’s strategic ambitions and raised questions about its broader military objectives.
The Chinese Ministry of Defence made a sudden announcement less than two hours after the launch of the missile at 8:44 a.m. from the island province of Hainan. State media reported that the test was successful, stating that the missile “fell into expected sea areas.” While official reports did not specify the exact location of the missile’s landing, French Polynesian media hinted that the projectile landed close to the territory’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
The missile, believed to be a variant of the Dong Feng-31AG (DF-31AG), traveled over 11,000 kilometers, showcasing a range double that of the most basic ICBMs. The DF-31AG is a capable weapon designed to carry a nuclear warhead, though this particular test involved a dummy warhead.
The DF-31 family of ICBMs, first introduced nearly 20 years ago, represents a stable yet powerful weapon system in China’s nuclear arsenal. Some military analysts suggest that the choice to use the DF-31AG instead of the more advanced DF-41 might indicate Beijing’s preference for reliability over technological novelty in this test. This could be seen as a deliberate move to signal China’s martial prowess without risking the uncertainties that may come with newer, more complex weapons.
The missile test serves as a clear demonstration of China’s ability to strike targets at long ranges, potentially extending across the entire Pacific Ocean. This has drawn attention, especially from the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.
Chinese officials described the ICBM test as “routine” and insisted that it was not directed at any specific country. Notably, Beijing took steps to ensure that the launch was not misinterpreted as an aggressive move. Some U.S. officials even praised China for providing advance notice of the test to avoid any potential miscalculations.
France, Australia, and New Zealand were also informed ahead of time, allowing them to share this information with their regional counterparts. In the days leading up to the launch, Japan and the Philippines were warned about the potential presence of “space debris” in the Pacific Ocean, though it remains unclear if they were specifically informed about the ICBM test.
However, not everyone was satisfied with China’s communication. For instance, the president of Kiribati criticized the Chinese government for failing to notify the Pacific Island nation of the missile test. The omission, according to Kiribati, represented a threat to “world peace and stability.” In response, the Chinese embassy in Kiribati argued that there was no need to inform the island nation, given that the test did not target its vicinity.
This selective communication approach by China contrasts sharply with the last time the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted an ICBM test in the Pacific Ocean over 40 years ago, which involved more extensive diplomatic coordination.
To understand the significance of the 2024 test, one must revisit the historical context of China’s ballistic missile development and its previous Pacific test in 1980. China’s journey toward developing its own ballistic missile capabilities began in the 1960s during the Cold War, at a time when the country was emerging from the political and economic turmoil of the Cultural Revolution.
The Dong Feng (East Wind) missile program was launched in 1965, aimed at developing a series of surface-to-surface missiles. However, due to the disruptions caused by the Cultural Revolution, the program faced delays. It was only in May 1980 that China conducted its first successful ICBM test with the Dong Feng-5 (DF-5), its first intercontinental ballistic missile.
The 1980 test followed years of planning and coordination by the National Defence Science and Technology Commission. At that time, China announced the coordinates of the missile’s landing point in the Pacific Ocean—located near several small island nations, including Nauru and the Solomon Islands—well in advance.
This transparency stood in stark contrast to the recent test in 2024. Back then, China’s global economic integration was still in its infancy, and its military advancements received limited international attention. However, the world in 2024 is vastly different. China is now a global economic powerhouse and a key player on the geopolitical stage. Its actions, particularly in the military domain, are scrutinized far more closely.
China’s military modernization has proceeded at a rapid pace, with its missile program being a key component of its strategic capabilities. The recent ICBM test in the South Pacific underscores Beijing’s desire to demonstrate its military prowess on the global stage. The ability to successfully launch and land an ICBM over 11,000 kilometers away sends a clear signal: China has the capacity to strike distant targets, including U.S. territories in the Pacific.
Moreover, testing ICBMs in a real-world environment, rather than in the more controlled settings of inland China, allows China’s military to assess the missile’s performance along a realistic trajectory. However, conducting such tests in international waters can also be seen as provocative, raising concerns among neighboring countries and beyond.
The test also raises questions about China’s broader strategic intentions. While Beijing insists that the test was not aimed at any particular nation, the timing and location of the launch suggest otherwise. The United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific, particularly Australia, Japan, and South Korea, have been increasingly concerned about China’s growing military assertiveness. This missile test only adds to those concerns.
While China’s military capabilities have grown significantly over the past few decades, its diplomatic strategies have not always kept pace. The decision not to notify all relevant parties in the region about the ICBM test reflects a potential misstep in Beijing’s approach to international diplomacy.
In 1980, China’s ICBM test attracted little international attention due to its relatively isolated position in the global economy. Today, however, China is a key player in the global economic system and is often viewed by the United States as its primary strategic competitor. Any military action taken by China, particularly in the context of missile tests, is likely to be closely watched and interpreted by other nations.
By failing to disclose its strategic objectives and neglecting to inform smaller Pacific nations like Kiribati, China may have missed an opportunity to project itself as a responsible global power. Instead, this test may reinforce perceptions of China as a rising superpower that prioritizes its military goals over the concerns of smaller nations.
The recent ICBM test by China in the South Pacific has reignited concerns about Beijing’s strategic ambitions. While the test itself demonstrated China’s impressive military capabilities, the lack of transparency and communication with all affected parties may have undermined Beijing’s efforts to present itself as a benign superpower.
In a world where China’s words and actions are under constant scrutiny, every move is interpreted through a geopolitical lens. The ICBM test may not have been aimed at any particular country, but its ramifications are far-reaching, particularly for the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific.
As China continues to develop its military capabilities and expand its influence, it will need to carefully manage its diplomatic strategies to avoid unnecessary tensions. Failure to do so could lead to further mistrust and a potential escalation of conflicts in an already tense region.
