China’s population has experienced a significant decline for the second consecutive year in a row, with just 9.02 million births in 2023 and 11.1 million deaths in 2023, a loss of about 3 million in two years. This is the first decline since the great famine of 1959-1961 and is accelerating.
Low-scenario projections from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predict that China’s population will shrink from 1.4 billion to 525 million by 2100, with the working-age population projected to fall to 210 million by 2100. The death rate is increasing due to population ageing and the rise of COVID in the first few months of 2023. The population is aging mainly due to the falling birth rate.
China’s total fertility rate, which was relatively flat between 1991 and 2017, has fallen to 1.28 in 2020, to 1.08 in 2022, and is now around 1, below the level of 2.1 required to sustain a population. In 2023, South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate, 0.72. China abandoned its one-child policy in 2016 and introduced a three-child policy in 2021.
Births in China are declining due to factors such as the one-child norm, the reduction of women of child-bearing age, and economic pressures. China’s National Bureau of Statistics reports that employees work an average of 49 hours per week, more than nine hours per day, and women graduates earn less than men.
Some families may have postponed childbirth during the less auspicious year of the rabbit in 2023. Research from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and Victoria University predicts China’s population to fall by more than half to around 525 million by 2100, with the working-age population set to fall more sharply to 210 million.
The number of Chinese aged 65 and older is expected to overtake the number of traditional working-age Chinese in 2077, three years earlier than previously predicted. By 2100, every 100 Chinese of traditional working-age will have to support 137 elderly Chinese, up from 21 at present. The fertility rate is expected to recover gradually to 1.3, with a low scenario predicting further decline to 0.88 over the next decade and gradually to 1.0 by 2050.
The decline in fertility rates in China’s region, which accounts for one-sixth of the world’s population, is expected to delay the day when the world’s population peaks. In 2022, fertility rates reached 1.26 in Japan, 1.04 in Singapore, 0.87 in Taiwan, 0.8 in Hong Kong, and 0.78 in South Korea. These trends indicate a “low-fertility trap” where fertility becomes difficult to lift once it falls below 1.5 or 1.4.
The updated forecast for China brings forward the world’s population peak by one year to 2083, although uncertainty remains, including India’s fertility rate. The accelerated decline in China’s population will weaken the country’s economy, putting downward pressure on consumer spending and upward pressure on wages and government spending.
