On October 10, Taiwan’s National Day, President Lai Ching-te delivered a bold and defiant speech that reverberated across the Taiwan Strait, intensifying an already fragile geopolitical situation. Speaking to an audience in Taipei, Lai emphasized that Taiwan was resolute in its determination to defend its sovereignty against what he described as China’s “annexation and encroachment.” In an unequivocal tone, he declared, “China has no right to represent Taiwan.” This statement was a direct rebuke of Beijing’s longstanding claim that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China.
China’s response was swift and alarming. Less than a week after Lai’s speech, Beijing mobilized a record 153 military aircraft to swarm Taiwan’s air defense zone in a 24-hour period. This military exercise, viewed as a thinly veiled threat, sent a clear message: Beijing is prepared to escalate its military posture to deter what it views as separatist moves. China considers Taiwan a “sacred and inseparable part of its territory” and has repeatedly stated its intention to bring the self-governed island back under mainland control — by force if necessary.
Taiwan, with its vibrant democracy, has developed a distinct national identity, separate from China’s one-party system. Over the years, this sentiment has grown stronger, and recent polls indicate that the majority of Taiwanese citizens oppose reunification with China, preferring to maintain the island’s current status as a self-ruled entity.
This evolving identity puts Taiwan at the center of a complex geopolitical struggle between the world’s two largest economies: the United States and China. While the U.S. does not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent nation due to diplomatic agreements with China, Washington has maintained an unofficial relationship with Taipei. This includes economic ties, military support, and high-level communication through back channels. Taiwan is a major supplier of semiconductors to the U.S., an industry that underpins technologies from smartphones to advanced weaponry.
Though the Biden administration has scaled back direct arms sales to Taiwan compared to previous U.S. governments, the island still plays a critical role in the U.S. strategy to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Taiwan’s geographical location and its technological prowess make it a key player in the region.
Beijing’s display of military power after Lai’s speech was one of the most aggressive exercises to date, showcasing China’s expanding capabilities and willingness to act. The 153 warplanes that circled Taiwan in a single day were not just an intimidation tactic; they served as a demonstration of Beijing’s rapid military escalation capabilities. The exercise was a stern warning to Taipei, signaling that any further steps toward formal independence could trigger military consequences.
Yet, Taiwan’s military remains outmatched in terms of size and resources compared to China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). This stark imbalance has led to growing concerns in Taiwan and among its allies that China might seek to annex the island through a military invasion. Some analysts argue that such a move would be catastrophic, not only for Taiwan but for the entire Indo-Pacific region, potentially dragging the U.S. and its allies into a direct confrontation with China.
Despite the lack of official diplomatic recognition, the U.S. has signaled its commitment to Taiwan’s defense in various ways. Successive U.S. administrations, including the current Biden presidency, have expressed support for Taiwan’s security, though there has been some ambiguity around whether the U.S. would intervene militarily if China were to invade.
Washington has maintained a “strategic ambiguity” policy, avoiding a clear statement on how it would respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan. However, President Joe Biden has, on several occasions, indicated that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s aid if necessary, although White House officials have often walked back his comments.
As the U.S. approaches its 2024 presidential election, the future of U.S.-Taiwan relations hangs in the balance. The outcome of this election could have a profound impact on Taiwan’s security, given the stark differences between the leading candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, in their views on China and global alliances.
For Chinese President Xi Jinping, Taiwan represents both a strategic and symbolic goal. Xi views the “reunification” of Taiwan with the mainland as a historical mission — one that would consolidate his legacy as one of the great leaders of the Chinese Communist Party, comparable to Mao Zedong, the founder of modern China.
Xi has shown no signs of backing down on the Taiwan issue. Under his leadership, China has repeatedly emphasized that it will not rule out the use of force to achieve unification. At the same time, Xi faces significant domestic challenges, including a slowing economy, rising public discontent, and international isolation due to China’s support of Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine.
If Xi can achieve progress toward unification with Taiwan, it could distract from China’s economic woes and rally nationalist support within the country. However, any military action would come at a high cost, likely resulting in severe economic sanctions from the West, further crippling China’s already struggling economy.
As China carefully monitors the U.S. political landscape, it is clear that the 2024 U.S. presidential election could be a turning point in the Taiwan-China conflict. Two very different candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, are positioned to influence America’s approach to Taiwan and China.
Donald Trump, with his reputation as a “dealmaker-in-chief,” might take a more transactional approach to Taiwan. Trump has expressed admiration for authoritarian leaders, including Xi Jinping, and has questioned the value of long-standing U.S. alliances. He has even commented on how Taiwan has allegedly taken over America’s semiconductor industry, suggesting that the island state should compensate the U.S. for its defense. This raises concerns in Taiwan that Trump might negotiate a deal with Beijing that undermines Taiwan’s autonomy.
On the other hand, Trump has also hinted that he would defend Taiwan if it serves U.S. interests, particularly given the critical role of semiconductors in the global economy. The tech sector, including artificial intelligence and advanced computing, heavily depends on Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing. In this context, a Trump administration might intervene to protect U.S. economic interests, even if it risks antagonizing China.
Kamala Harris presents a different dynamic. As vice president, she has consistently supported President Biden’s approach to China, including the implementation of tariffs and restrictions on Chinese technology. Harris is seen as a candidate who values alliances and the rule of law, which might suggest a more predictable and multilateral approach to Taiwan’s defense.
However, Harris has relatively limited experience in foreign policy compared to Trump. Should she win the presidency, it is likely that her policies toward Taiwan and China would closely align with those of the Biden administration — including continuing support for Taiwan’s defense while avoiding direct confrontation with Beijing.
Compounding China’s challenges is its complex relationship with the West, exacerbated by its support for Russia in the Ukraine war. Beijing has provided Russia with technology and other supplies that fuel its war machine, a move that has strained its relationships with Western nations. In return, China has faced increasing trade restrictions, further hampering its economic recovery.
For Xi, maintaining a strong alliance with Russia is crucial. If Moscow falters in its military campaign, China risks becoming the sole focus of Western scrutiny, especially given its ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. However, China’s support for Russia also isolates Beijing from key Western markets, making its economic recovery even more challenging.
Harris, in contrast, has strongly supported Ukraine, framing the conflict as both a strategic and moral issue. Trump, meanwhile, has been critical of U.S. aid to Ukraine, suggesting that Kyiv should make concessions to end the war. If Trump were to return to office, he might strengthen Russia by reducing support for Ukraine, a move that could further cement the Sino-Russian alliance.
As Taiwan stands at the heart of an escalating geopolitical struggle, the stakes are incredibly high for the island, the United States, and China. Lai Ching-te’s defiant speech on National Day has highlighted Taiwan’s resolve to maintain its autonomy, but China’s military maneuvers underscore the growing threat of conflict.
As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, the future of Taiwan will depend not only on the island’s own determination but also on the decisions made in Washington and Beijing. Whether through diplomacy, economic pressures, or military force, the Taiwan issue is set to remain a flashpoint in the ongoing rivalry between the U.S. and China, with global implications that extend far beyond the shores of the Taiwan Strait.
