China’s leadership has embarked on a flurry of measures aimed at counteracting a slowing economy. The government has unveiled a series of stimulus measures, distributed rare cash handouts, held an impromptu meeting to revive growth, and made a concerted push to reinvigorate a struggling real estate market.
These actions come as China grapples with economic stagnation, which presents a grave challenge to the leadership of Xi Jinping. On Monday, President Xi himself warned of “potential dangers” and stressed the importance of being “well-prepared” for the challenges ahead, which many interpret as a clear reference to the country’s economic troubles.
Yet, beyond the high-level interventions and policy decisions, a crucial question remains: How is the economic downturn affecting ordinary Chinese citizens? While public discourse is tightly regulated and dissent often censored, recent research provides a rare glimpse into the public’s growing concerns and frustrations. Two pivotal studies released in 2023 offer valuable insights into Chinese attitudes towards the economy and the rise in protests driven by economic grievances.
A Growing Pessimism: Attitudes Toward the Future
The first of these studies, conducted by American professors Martin Whyte of Harvard University and Scott Rozelle of Stanford University, reveals a marked shift in how Chinese citizens view their economic prospects. Surveying participants across multiple provinces, their findings paint a picture of increasing pessimism and disillusionment.
In the early 2000s, optimism about economic progress was widespread. In 2004, nearly 60% of respondents said their families’ financial situations had improved over the previous five years, and a similar proportion anticipated further improvement in the near future. These numbers surged in subsequent surveys, reaching 72.4% in 2009 and 76.5% in 2014.
However, in 2023, this optimism sharply declined. Only 38.8% of respondents believed their families’ situations had improved, and fewer than half—47%—expected things to get better in the next five years. Moreover, the proportion of people feeling pessimistic about the future jumped from just 2.3% in 2004 to 16% in 2023.
These findings reflect a broader national trend of growing anxiety about the future, particularly among younger generations struggling with rising unemployment and stagnant wages.
Amidst the economic downturn, many young Chinese citizens have adopted new coping strategies, illustrating the deep frustrations they face. With limited job opportunities, especially for college graduates, many have been forced to accept low-wage positions far below their qualifications. Others have embraced the “lie flat” movement (躺平), a passive resistance to the relentless demands of work and societal expectations. This trend represents a rejection of the hypercompetitive work culture in China, where success has traditionally been equated with grueling hours and personal sacrifice.
A related phenomenon, the rise of “full-time children” (全职子女), highlights how some young adults have opted to move back in with their parents due to unemployment or burnout. This shift reflects not only a response to economic hardship but also a growing sense of disillusionment with the notion that hard work and academic success will inevitably lead to financial security—a belief once deeply ingrained in Chinese society.
Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Authoritarian Policies
The dramatic shift in public sentiment coincides with China’s strict handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. For nearly three years, the country enforced stringent lockdowns, which stifled economic activity and left many citizens feeling surveilled and controlled like never before. “It was a turning point for many,” says Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore. “It reminded everyone of how authoritarian the state was.”
Even after the lockdowns ended, the damage had been done. Many Chinese workers faced pay cuts or job losses, further exacerbating feelings of insecurity. Moxi, a 38-year-old former psychiatrist, reflects on his experience: “When I was still a psychiatrist, I didn’t even have the time or energy to think about where my life was heading… There was no room for optimism or pessimism. It was just work.”
For many, however, work no longer holds the promise of a brighter future. In earlier surveys (2004, 2009, and 2014), over 60% of respondents agreed that effort was always rewarded in China. By 2023, that belief had collapsed—only 28.3% agreed that hard work would pay off, while one-third outright disagreed. The feeling was particularly pronounced among lower-income families.
This growing dissatisfaction has not only impacted individual outlooks but also sparked an increase in social unrest. The China Dissent Monitor (CDM), an organization that tracks public protests, reported an 18% rise in dissent events during the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. While protests in China are relatively rare due to the government’s tight grip on public expression, this rise is significant.
Many of these protests are fueled by economic grievances. CDM’s research shows that at least three out of four recorded dissent events in 2024 stemmed from economic frustrations. Rural residents and blue-collar workers have taken to the streets to protest land grabs and low wages, while middle-class homeowners and construction workers have mobilized over the real estate crisis, accounting for 44% of the documented protests in over 370 cities.
According to Kevin Slaten, one of the CDM study’s editors, while these protests do not necessarily indicate that China’s economy is on the verge of collapse, they are cause for concern. “It is difficult to predict how dissent may accelerate if the economy keeps getting worse,” he notes.
Beijing’s Response: Censorship and Economic Intervention
The rise in public dissent has not gone unnoticed by Chinese authorities. Over the past year, Beijing has made concerted efforts to control both the narrative surrounding the economy and the channels through which citizens express their frustrations. Between August 2023 and January 2024, the government stopped publishing youth unemployment figures after they reached record highs, preferring instead to introduce terms like “slow employment” to describe those taking their time finding jobs.
Simultaneously, censors have cracked down on social media, removing posts that express financial frustrations or highlight economic disparities. Popular influencers have been banned for flaunting luxury lifestyles, with state media justifying these moves as part of the effort to create a “civilized, healthy, and harmonious” society. The arrest of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng for criticizing Xi’s economic policies underscores the lengths to which authorities will go to suppress dissent. Despite these measures, the discontent persists. CDM’s research indicates that economic grievances are continuing to fuel protests across the country, posing a growing challenge to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
The increasing pessimism among China’s citizens has also cast doubt on Xi Jinping’s vision of the “Chinese Dream”—a concept mirroring the American Dream, where hard work leads to success and prosperity. For many, however, that dream now seems out of reach. According to Whyte and Rozelle’s research, a majority of respondents in 2023 believed that wealth is now primarily derived from privilege, family connections, and nepotism, rather than ability, education, or talent.
This marks a stark departure from earlier surveys, where respondents attributed wealth to hard work and merit. The change in sentiment suggests that many Chinese citizens are losing faith in the idea that effort and determination can lead to success in the current economic climate.
A Tipping Point for China’s Leadership?
While the Chinese government has been quick to introduce measures aimed at jumpstarting the economy, the growing pessimism among ordinary citizens, coupled with rising social unrest, presents a formidable challenge for the CCP. The legitimacy of China’s one-party rule has long been tied to its ability to deliver economic growth and improve living standards. Yet, with the economy slowing and disillusionment spreading, the Party’s grip on power could be tested in the years to come.
As Beijing continues to manage an economy weighed down by high debt, rising unemployment, and a troubled property market, it must also confront the deepening frustrations of its people. The government’s ability to address these issues will be critical not only for China’s future but also for the stability of the global economy.
China’s leadership has pulled out all the stops to arrest the economic slowdown, but the real challenge lies in restoring the optimism and trust of the millions who now feel left behind. Only time will tell if these efforts will be enough to turn the tide.
