Taiwan’s defense ministry reported on Sunday that a Chinese aircraft carrier group sailed into waters south of the island, stoking fears of another round of Chinese military exercises. The report comes amid heightened tensions between Taipei and Beijing, particularly in the wake of remarks by Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, which drew sharp rebukes from China.
The sighting of the carrier group, led by the Liaoning, a Chinese navy vessel, near the strategic Bashi Channel that separates Taiwan from the Philippines, is yet another sign of China’s military presence in the region. The Bashi Channel is a critical waterway connecting the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean, and its proximity to Taiwan makes it an area of significant geopolitical importance.
While China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to achieve unification, Taiwan has repeatedly emphasized its sovereignty and the right of its people to determine their future. The recent appearance of China’s naval force so close to Taiwan has sparked speculation that Beijing might be preparing to launch new military drills near the island in response to growing political tensions.
Tensions between China and Taiwan have been mounting for some time, but the recent flare-up can be traced to comments made by Taiwan’s President, Lai Ching-te, during his keynote speech on the island’s National Day last week. In his address, Lai reiterated that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has no authority to represent Taiwan. His speech, while firm in tone, also struck a conciliatory note by expressing a willingness to work with Beijing on global issues such as climate change.
However, despite his offers for dialogue, Lai’s remarks were met with hostility in Beijing. The Chinese government views Lai as a “separatist” leader who is steering Taiwan away from reunification with the mainland. China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), routinely conducts operations around Taiwan, and Lai’s address has only added fuel to the fire.
Security analysts in Taiwan had already anticipated that Lai’s speech could provoke a reaction from China, with some experts predicting military drills as a form of political punishment. The last major war games took place in May, following Lai’s inauguration speech. Beijing used those exercises to demonstrate its displeasure with what it sees as Taiwan’s drift toward independence.
Earlier on Sunday, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, which oversees military operations in the Taiwan region, released a propaganda video that left little room for ambiguity about China’s readiness for conflict. The video, titled “Fully Prepared and Biding One’s Time Before Battle,” features dramatic scenes of Chinese fighter jets, warships, and missile launchers preparing for combat. Amphibious assault vehicles also make an appearance, hinting at potential scenarios for a cross-strait invasion. Notably, a map of Taiwan was briefly visible in the Chinese characters that spelled out the video’s title, further driving home the target of these maneuvers.
The video was posted across Chinese social media platforms, sending a clear message to both domestic and international audiences. For China, projecting military might around Taiwan is not just about intimidating the island’s leadership but also about reaffirming Beijing’s position on unification to its own people and the world.
The timing of the video, coinciding with the passage of the Liaoning carrier group near Taiwan, seems far from coincidental. China has often employed synchronized military activities, media propaganda, and diplomatic statements to exert pressure on Taiwan during periods of political tension. These moves reinforce China’s message that it is prepared to take military action if Taiwan moves too far toward formal independence.
Taiwan’s defense ministry, in response to the appearance of the Liaoning and its accompanying naval vessels, issued a statement reassuring the public that the situation is under close surveillance. The ministry emphasized that Taiwan’s armed forces were maintaining “appropriate vigilance” and monitoring the movements of the Chinese navy in the region. While specific details were not disclosed, defense officials underscored that Taiwan is fully prepared to respond to any escalation.
Taiwan’s military has faced a growing challenge in balancing its defense capabilities against the PLA’s superior resources. The island’s government has been steadily increasing defense spending, acquiring advanced weapons systems from the United States, and modernizing its forces to counter potential threats. However, the sheer scale of China’s military buildup and the frequency of its operations near Taiwan have raised concerns about the island’s ability to withstand a sustained attack.
In a recent interview, Taiwanese military experts expressed unease over the possibility of Chinese military exercises escalating into a full-scale blockade or even an invasion. “China is using psychological warfare, economic coercion, and military threats to wear down Taiwan’s resolve,” said one senior defense analyst. “The longer these actions persist, the more challenging it becomes for Taiwan to maintain its sovereignty without external support.”
The Bashi Channel, where the Liaoning carrier group was spotted, is a vital strategic point for both Taiwan and China. As a key waterway connecting the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean, it serves as a crucial route for international shipping and military deployments. For China, control over the Bashi Channel would not only enhance its ability to project power into the broader Pacific but also potentially allow it to choke off Taiwan’s access to maritime trade routes.
For Taiwan, maintaining security over the Bashi Channel is equally important. The channel provides a buffer zone against Chinese naval incursions and serves as a vital line of communication with Taiwan’s allies in the region, particularly the United States and Japan. Should China attempt to block the channel during a military conflict, Taiwan’s ability to receive supplies, reinforcements, and humanitarian aid would be severely compromised.
Some military analysts believe that China’s growing presence near the Bashi Channel is part of a broader strategy to encircle Taiwan and create a de facto blockade. By controlling key maritime chokepoints around the island, China could limit Taiwan’s options in a crisis and increase pressure on the island’s leadership to negotiate on Beijing’s terms.
The current standoff between China and Taiwan also plays into a wider geopolitical struggle involving the United States and its regional allies. The U.S., which provides defensive arms to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act, has consistently voiced support for the island’s right to self-defense. U.S. naval vessels frequently transit through the Taiwan Strait as a demonstration of freedom of navigation and a signal of American commitment to the region.
In recent months, Washington has increased its military presence in the Indo-Pacific, with the Pentagon announcing new deployments of aircraft carriers and other assets to the region. The U.S. has also been deepening defense cooperation with allies such as Japan and Australia, all of whom share concerns about China’s growing assertiveness in the region.
Japanese defense officials have expressed particular concern over the situation in the Taiwan Strait, given the island’s proximity to Japan’s southernmost territories. In the event of a conflict, Japan could be drawn into the fight, especially if Chinese forces attempt to seize the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by both China and Japan. Australia, too, has been closely monitoring the developments, with its leaders reiterating their commitment to the U.S.-led security framework in the Pacific.
While the situation remains tense, there is still hope that diplomacy can prevent further escalation. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has made repeated offers to engage in dialogue with Beijing, calling for peaceful negotiations to resolve differences. However, these overtures have been consistently rebuffed by China, which maintains that talks can only occur if Taiwan accepts the “One China” principle — a condition that Taipei has rejected.
