As the U.S. presidential election looms, it is not just Americans who are nervously watching the race unfold. Across the Pacific, in China, the election is being followed with keen interest and palpable anxiety. With tensions between the two superpowers intensifying over issues like Taiwan, trade, and international affairs, Chinese citizens are growing increasingly concerned about what the outcome of the election might mean for their country and the world.
In Beijing’s Ritan Park, a serene setting just a short distance from the American ambassador’s residence, a group of senior citizens gathers regularly to practice ballroom dancing. The park, with its peaceful ambiance and the graceful movements of elderly dancers, seems worlds away from the fraught geopolitics that preoccupy the broader world. Yet, here too, conversations inevitably turn to the U.S. election.
“None of us wants to see a war,” says Mr. Xiang, a man in his sixties, as he takes a break from dancing. The group is gathered under the shade of trees, their discussion drifting from dance steps to more pressing concerns. “I am worried that Sino-U.S. relations are getting tense,” Xiang admits. “Peace is what we want.”
It’s a sentiment echoed by many in China, where the escalating competition between Washington and Beijing is fueling fears not only of a diplomatic fallout but also of potential conflict.
Fear of War Looms Large
The U.S.-China rivalry has dominated global headlines in recent years, with flashpoints in the Taiwan Strait, trade wars, and international conflicts like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. China’s state media has emphasized the dangers posed by U.S. foreign policies, especially as China positions itself as a global peace advocate.
Mr. Meng, a septuagenarian who also frequents the park, offers a surprising take on the upcoming U.S. election. “Although Trump imposes economic sanctions on China, he does not wish to start or fight a war,” Meng says. “Mr. Biden starts more wars so more ordinary people dislike him. It is Mr. Biden who supports Ukraine’s war, and both Russia and Ukraine suffer great loss from it.”
Meng, like many in China, harbors anxieties not just about the Sino-U.S. relationship, but also about broader global conflicts. The perception that President Biden has escalated the conflict in Ukraine by supporting Kyiv against Russia has taken hold in parts of Chinese society, fueled in part by the country’s tightly controlled media narratives.
Some in the park, like a group of young women recording a dance routine for their social media page, seem to align themselves with similar views. “Donald Trump said in the debate that he will end the war in Ukraine 24 hours after he takes office,” one says, referencing a claim Trump has made during his campaign.
Their attitudes reflect an ongoing narrative in Chinese media that portrays the U.S. as a nation too eager for military interventions. At the same time, China positions itself as an advocate for peace, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and pledging support for “Arab brothers” in the Middle East.
The Taiwan Question
The future of Taiwan remains one of the most critical issues in U.S.-China relations, and it is a flashpoint that many in China fear could lead to direct conflict. “I don’t like Trump. I don’t think there is a good future between the U.S. and China—there are too many problems, the global economy, and also the Taiwan problem,” says one young father, as he watches his son play nearby.
Like many parents, he is fearful that rising tensions could lead to conflict, and he worries about the implications for his family’s future. “I don’t want my son to go to the military,” he confides, a sentiment many Chinese families share as fears over Taiwan grow.
China claims Taiwan as a breakaway province and has vowed to reunify the island with the mainland, by force if necessary. Meanwhile, the U.S., under its “One China policy,” maintains official diplomatic ties with Beijing but is also Taiwan’s most important international ally, providing defensive support and arms to the self-governed island.
The Biden administration has taken a firmer stance on Taiwan than previous administrations, with the president stating that the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily if it were attacked—a move that departs from the long-held policy of strategic ambiguity. In contrast, Trump has focused on economic relationships, suggesting Taiwan should pay for its own defense. “Taiwan took our chip business from us,” Trump said in a recent interview. “They’re immensely wealthy. Taiwan should pay us for defense.”
For many Chinese citizens, both Trump’s unpredictability and Biden’s assertiveness on Taiwan present challenges. While some fear Trump’s economic policies, particularly his proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, others worry Biden’s defense commitments could lead to military escalation.
Trade Tensions Still Simmer
Economic relations between the U.S. and China are also a significant concern for many. The trade war that began under Trump’s presidency, with tariffs imposed on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods, remains unresolved, and tensions have continued under the Biden administration.
“I don’t think it will do any good for the U.S. to impose tariffs on China,” says Mr. Xiang, who, like many in the park, is critical of the U.S.’s trade policies. “The tariffs will hit the U.S. people and increase costs for ordinary Americans,” he adds.
China, which has been grappling with an economic downturn exacerbated by global trade restrictions, sees these tariffs as an attempt by the U.S. to stymie its rise as a global economic power. The Biden administration has expanded tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels, moves that Beijing has condemned.
At a time when Chinese manufacturers are struggling to boost exports, the prospect of Trump’s proposed tariffs is especially unwelcome. Business leaders and ordinary citizens alike fear that such measures could further slow China’s recovery from the economic challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and strained global supply chains.
A Generation Divided
While older generations may focus on the more tangible aspects of U.S.-China relations—war, trade, and diplomacy—China’s younger population is equally engaged in the conversation, albeit from a different perspective. Many young people, while proud of their country’s accomplishments, also look to the U.S. as a land of opportunity and cultural influence.
Lily and Anna, both in their early twenties, express a sense of national pride as they discuss the U.S. election. Dressed in traditional costumes, they talk about China’s strength and prosperity. “Our country is a very prosperous and powerful country,” they say, though they admit to loving American pop culture, particularly the Avengers and Taylor Swift.
Seventeen-year-old Lucy, cycling on a newly installed exercise bike in the park, echoes this sentiment. She dreams of studying in the U.S. one day and visiting Universal Studios. “Harris’s candidacy marks an important step forward for gender equality,” she says, referring to Vice President Kamala Harris, who could potentially become the first female president of the United States.
Lucy, like many young Chinese, hopes for more people-to-people exchanges between China and the U.S. However, diplomatic strains have made this increasingly difficult. The number of American students studying in China has plummeted, from 15,000 in 2011 to just 800 today, and while Chinese students continue to study in the U.S., many face challenges due to increased scrutiny at the border.
A Hope for Better Relations
Despite the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China relations, many in China remain hopeful that the two nations can find a way to coexist peacefully. President Xi Jinping has promised to open the door to 50,000 American students over the next five years, but tensions remain high. The U.S. ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, has accused Beijing of preventing public diplomacy initiatives, and Chinese citizens have reported difficulties traveling to the U.S.
Nevertheless, figures like Lucy remain optimistic. “We may be a little bit reserved sometimes,” she says, “but we are welcoming.” Her message to Americans is simple: come visit China, and experience its culture and people firsthand.
As the music in Ritan Park swells and the dancers resume their steps, the U.S. election remains a focal point of conversation. For many Chinese citizens, the outcome of the race will have profound implications not only for the future of U.S.-China relations but for the world as a whole. Whether Trump or Biden wins, the hope for peace and stability remains strong—amid the swirl of global uncertainty, the desire for diplomacy endures.
