The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) opens this week in Bonn during a year that has seen unprecedented global warming and intensified environmental disasters. With the world nearing a critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, the stakes have never been higher. Scientific reports leading up to the conference underscore the urgency, with evidence suggesting that climate change’s impacts are accelerating faster than previously anticipated, adding pressure to negotiators and leaders to implement aggressive, binding actions for climate adaptation and mitigation.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last published a comprehensive report on climate science in 2021. Since then, the effects of climate change have evolved more dramatically than expected, with signs indicating that the Earth may have reached 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures—a critical limit set by the Paris Agreement to prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. A group of researchers recently published findings in Nature Geoscience indicating that, by extending the baseline period for measuring warming back to the years 13–1700, we could already be perilously close to or past this threshold.
“The climate impacts we are seeing right now—widespread wildfires, unprecedented heat waves, devastating droughts, and the acidification of oceans—are warnings of what lies ahead if we don’t act now,” says Dr. Ella Martinez, a climate scientist at the IPCC. “COP29 is one of the last opportunities for countries to come together to make real, transformative decisions that will shape the future.”
As climate scientists warned, 2024 is set to become the hottest year on record. Ocean temperatures, which influence global weather patterns, have also reached new heights, intensifying storms and impacting ecosystems around the world. Rising sea temperatures fuel hurricanes, resulting in faster and more extreme intensification. A stark example is Hurricane Milton, which hit the Gulf of Mexico in October, surging from a tropical storm to a Category 3 hurricane within hours and devastating parts of Florida’s west coast.
Hurricanes and typhoons are becoming stronger and wetter, with warmer air holding more moisture and releasing it in torrential downpours. This has led to catastrophic flooding in areas previously untouched by hurricanes, including mountain towns such as Asheville, North Carolina, which saw unprecedented flooding from Hurricane Helene in September.
The 2024 fire season has been especially destructive, with drought-stricken regions in North America, Europe, and Russia experiencing intense wildfires. Climate change has exacerbated the frequency and scale of these fires by creating hotter, drier conditions that ignite more easily and burn longer. In July, Nature Climate Change published a study revealing that 13% of deaths linked to wildfire smoke over the past decade—approximately 12,000 people—were directly attributed to climate change’s effect on wildfires.
“Wildfires not only devastate ecosystems but release massive amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, making it harder to combat climate change,” explains Dr. Leo Hernandez, a researcher at the Environmental Health Institute. “The smoke from these fires is also impacting public health on an unprecedented scale.”
This smoke has spread across the Atlantic Ocean and covered cities thousands of miles away, affecting air quality and posing severe health risks, especially for vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and those with respiratory conditions.
The Amazon, often referred to as the “lungs of the planet,” faces an existential threat due to climate-induced droughts and fires. In 2024, the region has experienced its worst drought since record-keeping began in 1950, with rivers drying up and water levels reaching all-time lows. The ramifications for both the rainforest ecosystem and indigenous communities have been profound.
Studies indicate that between 10% and 47% of the Amazon will endure intensified drought and heat by 2050 due to climate change. Such conditions could push the forest past a tipping point, transforming it into a degraded, dry forest or even a savanna, unable to produce enough moisture to sustain itself.
“The Amazon is under a death sentence if we do not address climate change,” says Dr. Carla Souza, an ecologist at the Brazilian Institute for Amazonian Studies. “If the Amazon falls, it would spell disaster for global biodiversity and significantly hinder our ability to capture and store carbon.”
The warming of ocean waters has also triggered what scientists now describe as a fourth global mass bleaching event, devastating coral reefs from Australia to the Caribbean. Coral reefs, which support a quarter of marine species and provide livelihoods for millions, are essential to ocean health. However, bleaching events weaken coral structures, sometimes leading to their death if ocean temperatures do not recede. This latest bleaching event is the most extensive on record, casting doubt on the reefs’ ability to recover in the future.
“Coral reefs are incredibly sensitive to temperature changes,” says marine biologist Dr. Sarah Leclerc. “If we continue on this trajectory, we risk losing entire reef systems. Beyond biodiversity, this will affect coastal communities, food security, and tourism industries.”
Forests, which play a pivotal role in absorbing carbon dioxide, are showing signs of stress due to wildfires and droughts. A study from July highlighted that forests absorbed less carbon dioxide in 2023 than in previous years, largely due to the Amazon drought and Canadian wildfires. This represents a troubling trend, as carbon sinks are essential in offsetting emissions.
With reduced forest absorption, more carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, accelerating warming. This decline in natural carbon sinks challenges global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change’s most severe effects.
A lesser-known but concerning effect of global warming is its impact on volcanic activity. In Iceland, scientists have observed that as glaciers melt, less pressure is exerted on the Earth’s crust, leading to the destabilization of magma reservoirs. This increased magma formation could lead to more frequent volcanic eruptions. Globally, approximately 245 volcanoes lie under or near glaciers, meaning that increased eruptions could be seen across multiple continents as glacial melting continues.
Dr. Ingrid Hallberg, a volcanologist in Reykjavik, notes, “We’re seeing an uptick in volcanic activity that is consistent with the retreat of glaciers. The link between climate change and volcanic instability is still under study, but it is increasingly clear that global warming affects our planet in ways we are only beginning to understand.”
The warming Atlantic Ocean has weakened the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by approximately 15% since 1950, based on research published in Science Advances. AMOC, a crucial oceanic current system, transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, helping moderate Europe’s climate. A significant slowdown could lead to colder European winters, destabilize weather patterns, and even exacerbate sea-level rise along the U.S. eastern seaboard.
Challenges and Expectations at COP29
COP29 arrives amid these dire conditions, with expectations high for nations to commit to ambitious actions. The conference is expected to focus on several pressing issues:
- Carbon Emissions Reduction: Negotiators aim to agree on more stringent carbon reduction commitments to keep global warming under 1.5°C.
- Funding for Climate Adaptation: Developing countries are advocating for increased funding to address climate impacts, such as droughts, floods, and food security.
- Loss and Damage Mechanisms: Countries suffering severe climate impacts are seeking commitments from wealthier nations to fund loss and damage recovery efforts.
- Nature-Based Solutions: Protecting and restoring natural carbon sinks, such as forests and wetlands, will be a priority in discussions on enhancing resilience and offsetting emissions.
- Renewable Energy Investments: With fossil fuels responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions, COP29 will emphasize the need for investments in renewable energy, especially in coal-dependent regions.
