The world is gathering in Turkey for another attempt to strengthen international efforts against climate change, but the growing demand for energy, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and weakening political commitments are threatening to undermine global climate ambitions.
The United Nations climate conference, known as COP31, opens in the Turkish resort city of Antalya on Monday, November 9, against an increasingly difficult global backdrop. Governments are expected to confront the reality that the world is almost certain to exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement, while efforts to prevent temperatures from rising further are losing momentum.
The 1.5-degree target, measured against pre-industrial levels, has long been considered a critical threshold for limiting the most destructive consequences of global warming. However, the United Nations warned last month that the world is now more likely to exceed that limit, shifting attention towards preventing temperatures from rising beyond 1.8 degrees Celsius.
Even that more modest objective is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve. Despite significant growth in renewable energy, global emissions remain stubbornly high, fossil fuel consumption continues, and governments are struggling to translate climate commitments into concrete action.
The emergence of artificial intelligence as a major economic force has added another complication. The rapid construction of data centres, which require enormous quantities of electricity and water for cooling, is creating additional energy demand at a time when countries are supposed to be reducing their dependence on coal, oil and natural gas.
Maria da Graça Carvalho, Portugal’s climate minister, said the global energy landscape had changed considerably since the previous United Nations climate conference in Brazil.
“Data centres were not a topic there,” she said, describing the Antalya gathering as a particularly important and potentially challenging conference.
The growing energy requirements of artificial intelligence, combined with increasing demand for air conditioning and cooling systems as temperatures rise, are creating new pressures on electricity networks. In countries where renewable energy infrastructure cannot expand quickly enough, additional demand risks being met through fossil fuel generation.
This contradiction is expected to become one of the central questions surrounding COP31: how can the world accelerate electrification and technological development without increasing greenhouse gas emissions?
The political environment has also become more complicated, particularly following the latest political developments in the United States.
Although recent electoral gains by Democrats have raised expectations of stronger political engagement on clean energy, the United States government under President Donald Trump remains opposed to the international climate framework. Trump has initiated the country’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for a second time and has also moved away from the foundational United Nations climate treaty.
Nearly 20 Democratic members of the US House of Representatives, along with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, are expected to attend the Antalya discussions. Their presence is intended to demonstrate that support for climate action continues within sections of American political institutions.
However, European climate officials remain sceptical about the significance of the American delegation. One European negotiator said the electoral developments might bring additional optimism among environmental organisations but would not fundamentally change Washington’s position.
The absence of the US government from the negotiations is particularly significant because the country is one of the world’s largest historical contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and a major influence on international energy markets.
The wider consequences extend beyond Washington. Governments across the world are increasingly balancing climate objectives against economic pressures, energy security concerns and geopolitical instability.
Wars and disruptions to fossil fuel supplies have encouraged some countries to accelerate investment in renewable energy and electric vehicles. However, rising living costs and concerns about industrial competitiveness have also weakened political support for ambitious environmental regulations.
As a result, national climate commitments are increasingly falling short of expectations. Current assessments suggest that countries’ climate plans are now expected to deliver only about half the emissions reductions anticipated a year earlier, largely because of the reversal of American climate policies.
Under existing trajectories, global temperatures could rise by approximately 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, far above the Paris Agreement’s ambition of limiting warming to well below two degrees and pursuing efforts to keep it within 1.5 degrees.
COP31 marks the beginning of a two-year international process to assess progress under the Paris Agreement and identify measures to address the widening gap between climate commitments and actual emissions reductions.
Governments are expected to use the process to evaluate existing policies and agree on additional measures before the next major assessment in 2028.
However, the traditional structure of climate negotiations is facing growing criticism over its ability to respond to rapidly changing economic and technological conditions.
Gerald Butts, chair of the Eurasia Group and a former adviser to Canadian prime ministers Mark Carney and Justin Trudeau, questioned whether the existing COP framework was sufficiently equipped to address emerging challenges.
He argued that the international climate negotiation system had not evolved quickly enough to respond to the changing global economy, particularly the expansion of artificial intelligence and the growing energy requirements of digital infrastructure.
European Union climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, however, believes the conference should concentrate on implementing existing commitments rather than introducing numerous new initiatives.
“This is going to be an implementation COP,” Hoekstra told the European Parliament last month.
He argued that governments had repeatedly introduced new promises without delivering sufficiently on commitments already agreed under international climate agreements.
The debate reflects a broader division within the climate community. Some governments want COP31 to concentrate on accountability and implementation, while others believe emerging technologies and new energy challenges require additional international initiatives.
One of the most important initiatives at Antalya involves a proposal by Turkey and Australia to increase the share of electricity in global energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035, compared with approximately 20 per cent today.
Electrification is considered essential to reducing emissions because it allows transportation, heating, industrial processes and other activities traditionally powered by fossil fuels to shift towards electricity generated from cleaner sources.
However, disagreements are already emerging over how the proposed target should be achieved.
Some countries want the commitment to explicitly prioritise clean electricity generated through renewable energy and other low-carbon sources. Others are reluctant to exclude natural gas or other fossil fuel-based electricity generation.
The distinction is important because electrification alone does not necessarily reduce emissions if additional electricity demand is supplied by coal- or gas-fired power plants.
Australia’s Energy and Climate Minister Chris Bowen, who is overseeing the formal negotiations, acknowledged that governments held different positions on the issue.
He said increasing renewable energy remained desirable but argued that electrification could generally deliver environmental and economic benefits.
The proposed target is also politically sensitive because it touches directly on the long-running disagreement over phasing down fossil fuel consumption.
At the 2023 COP28 conference in Dubai, nearly 200 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. However, many governments have since continued expanding or maintaining fossil fuel production, highlighting the gap between diplomatic commitments and national energy policies.
Artificial intelligence is another emerging priority at COP31, with governments and companies being encouraged to make voluntary commitments to develop sustainable digital infrastructure.
The initiative seeks to encourage responsible construction and operation of data centres while promoting the use of AI technologies to improve energy efficiency, monitor emissions and support climate solutions.
However, the proposed framework allows participating countries and companies to establish their own targets rather than imposing binding requirements.
This raises questions about whether voluntary commitments will be sufficient to control the environmental consequences of the rapidly expanding AI industry.
The growing demand for electricity from data centres has already become a major concern for energy planners. Large computing facilities require continuous power supplies, sophisticated cooling systems and substantial infrastructure investment.
The challenge is particularly significant in countries where electricity generation remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
The issue also illustrates the limitations of the so-called action agenda, a parallel process through which governments, businesses and international organisations announce voluntary climate initiatives outside formal negotiations.
Supporters argue that the approach allows countries and companies to move more quickly because it does not require unanimous agreement among nearly 200 governments.
Sweden’s climate ambassador Mattias Frumerie described the expanding action agenda as a positive development, saying it provided a platform for practical initiatives and measurable results.
However, critics warn that voluntary pledges lack the legal obligations, monitoring arrangements and accountability mechanisms associated with formal international agreements.
The political difficulties surrounding climate action were highlighted at an international oil conference in the United Arab Emirates shortly before COP31.
Sultan al Jaber, the UAE’s industry minister and head of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), announced a partnership with OpenAI to improve the company’s operations through artificial intelligence.
The collaboration includes the application of AI-enabled technologies to support drilling and the development of a major 25-year natural gas project intended to meet growing energy requirements from AI and other industries.
The announcement exposed the contradiction between international commitments to reduce fossil fuel dependence and the commercial strategies of major energy producers seeking to benefit from rising electricity demand.
Al Jaber, who presided over COP28 in 2023, said decisions made today would shape the global energy landscape for the coming decade.
His remarks highlighted the difficult position of oil-producing countries, which are simultaneously participating in international climate negotiations and pursuing long-term investments in fossil fuel infrastructure.
Gerald Butts argued that established political and economic interests remain among the biggest obstacles to climate progress.
He said governments and industries benefiting from existing energy systems had powerful incentives to resist changes that could weaken their influence.
The weakening of international climate cooperation is also affecting initiatives designed to address methane emissions and provide financial assistance to countries vulnerable to climate disasters.
The United States and European Union, which helped establish a global pledge to reduce methane emissions, have weakened some of their regulatory commitments.
Meanwhile, several financial institutions have withdrawn from climate-focused banking alliances following political pressure against environmental, social and governance initiatives.
The financial challenges are particularly serious for developing countries, which face increasing costs from floods, landslides, droughts, extreme heat and other climate-related disasters.
A fund established to support countries suffering climate-related losses and damage is facing a significant funding shortfall, even as the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase.
For vulnerable countries such as Nepal, the consequences are especially important. The catastrophic glacial collapse and associated flooding in Nepal have highlighted the growing risks facing Himalayan communities, infrastructure and economic activities.
Wealthy countries and vulnerable island nations are therefore calling for stronger international action to address the consequences of global warming and the widening gap in climate finance.
However, their demands frequently encounter resistance from major fossil fuel-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and its allies.
Despite mounting criticism, supporters of the United Nations climate process argue that international negotiations remain indispensable.
Germany’s Climate Minister Carsten Schneider said the COP framework was imperfect but remained the only international mechanism capable of bringing governments together to address climate change collectively.
He argued that the conferences also provided opportunities to find solutions to wider economic and geopolitical challenges.
There are also measurable achievements to support the continued importance of the process. Since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, projected global warming has declined from approximately four degrees Celsius to around 2.8 degrees under current policy assessments.
Ana Toni, chief executive of Brazil’s COP30, said the climate conferences had gradually advanced international cooperation by bringing governments, businesses, civil society organisations and Indigenous communities together.
She acknowledged the scepticism surrounding the negotiations but argued that no other United Nations gathering had comparable importance for global climate protection.
As COP31 begins in Antalya, the central challenge is no longer simply persuading governments to recognise the dangers of global warming. It is ensuring that their political commitments translate into measurable changes in energy production, industrial development and consumption.
With artificial intelligence driving new electricity demand, fossil fuel interests retaining considerable political influence and international cooperation facing renewed uncertainty, the conference will test whether the Paris Agreement can adapt to a rapidly changing world.
The 1.5-degree target may already be slipping beyond reach. The question facing governments in Turkey is whether they can prevent that failure from becoming the starting point for an even more dangerous climate future.
