The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, one of the key orchestrators of the group’s brutal attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, marks a critical moment in Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas. Sinwar’s assassination by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), long considered a high-value target, has been hailed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a significant victory. Netanyahu declared it the “beginning of the end” of Israel’s war against Hamas. Yet, this pivotal event prompts the question: Is it truly a turning point in the conflict?
As Israel continues its military campaign in Gaza, aiming to dismantle Hamas and secure the release of Israeli hostages, the path forward remains fraught with challenges. Key political figures, military strategists, and international stakeholders have varying views on what impact Sinwar’s death will have on the war, and whether it will lead to a decisive resolution or extend the bloodshed. This article examines the potential implications of Sinwar’s death and whether it shifts the trajectory of Israel’s broader objectives in the conflict.
The Importance of Yahya Sinwar
Yahya Sinwar was not only one of the most influential leaders within Hamas but also a symbol of Palestinian resistance against Israel. Rising through the ranks of Hamas after being released in a prisoner exchange with Israel in 2011, Sinwar became the head of Hamas’ political and military operations in Gaza. For Palestinians, Sinwar represented defiance and determination, frequently positioning himself as a leader who was unafraid to take the fight directly to Israel. His death is undoubtedly a blow to Hamas, but it does not necessarily equate to the collapse of the organization or its ability to continue waging its war against Israel.
For many Palestinians, particularly in Gaza and the Occupied Territories, Sinwar’s leadership was a point of pride. His assassination comes at a time when Hamas has enjoyed a surge in popularity, partly in response to Israel’s ongoing military operations. A May 2023 opinion poll found that support for Hamas among Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza had risen to 40%, while the approval of the Palestinian Authority (PA) under Mahmoud Abbas, which governs the West Bank, had significantly declined to around 20%. This shift in public opinion underscores Sinwar’s role in galvanizing support for Hamas’ cause.
Sinwar’s death thus removes a charismatic and strategic leader from Hamas’ ranks, but it also leaves questions about who will succeed him and how his absence will affect the group’s future operations. Khaled Mashal, the former head of Hamas’ political bureau and a prominent figure within the organization, is one name being floated as a potential successor. However, it remains unclear whether any new leader can maintain the same level of influence and effectiveness as Sinwar.
A New Opportunity for Hamas Leadership?
The vacuum left by Sinwar’s death could provide an opportunity for Hamas to reassess its approach to the conflict. Some analysts speculate that a new leader might use this moment to pursue a ceasefire with Israel, in an effort to alleviate the suffering of the people in Gaza. The humanitarian crisis in the enclave has reached catastrophic levels, with widespread destruction, shortages of basic supplies, and a growing death toll. A ceasefire could potentially open the door to negotiations that address both the hostilities and the dire conditions under which Gazans are living.
However, this is far from certain. Hamas’ leadership has historically shown little inclination to negotiate or compromise, particularly when it comes to its core objectives, which include the destruction of Israel and the establishment of an Islamist state in the region. Even if a ceasefire were achieved, it would not necessarily signify the end of hostilities, as evidenced by past ceasefires that have been quickly followed by renewed fighting.
Israel’s Strategic Objectives
While Sinwar’s death is seen by many in Israel as a crucial achievement, the broader goals of Israel’s war against Hamas have not yet been met. Prime Minister Netanyahu has laid out clear objectives for the military campaign: to eliminate Hamas as a fighting force, secure the release of Israeli hostages, and restore deterrence along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah poses a significant threat. Despite Sinwar’s death, each of these objectives remains a significant challenge.
- Elimination of Hamas
Hamas has proven to be a resilient and adaptive force over the years. Even as Israel has intensified its military operations in Gaza, the group has shifted from a conventional fighting force to a more elusive guerrilla operation. This transformation makes Hamas fighters more difficult to target and neutralize. Guerrilla warfare tactics, including the use of tunnels and urban combat, allow Hamas to strike at Israeli forces and then melt away into the civilian population or underground networks.
Israeli military doctrine has traditionally employed the “clear, hold, and build” strategy when dealing with insurgent or guerrilla forces. This involves clearing an area of enemy fighters, holding it to prevent their return, and then building a stable environment in which the enemy cannot re-establish itself. While Israel has had some success with the “clearing” and “holding” phases, it has struggled to achieve the “build” phase, particularly in Gaza. Hamas has continually exploited Gaza’s instability, using its extensive tunnel network and deep-rooted presence in the civilian population to regroup and re-emerge even after heavy Israeli military campaigns.
- Hostage Crisis
The fate of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas remains one of the most pressing concerns for Netanyahu’s government. Despite military gains, negotiations for the release of the hostages have made little progress, and the potential for a ceasefire, which could facilitate talks, is complicated by internal political dynamics. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition partners have made it clear that they will not accept a ceasefire unless Hamas is completely neutralized as a fighting force. This hardline stance puts Netanyahu in a difficult position. Failure to secure the release of the hostages could lead to growing unrest among Israeli citizens, who have already been staging protests demanding more action to bring their loved ones home. - Restoring Deterrence with Hezbollah
The situation in northern Israel, where Hezbollah poses an ongoing threat from Lebanon, also remains unresolved. Over the past few weeks, Israel has evacuated tens of thousands of residents from its northern border areas, signaling the seriousness of the threat from Hezbollah. While Hezbollah has been weakened by Israel’s military actions and internal Lebanese issues, it still has the capacity to launch significant attacks against Israel. Deterrence in this region is crucial to Israel’s overall security strategy, and it is uncertain whether the IDF’s current operations will be able to fully neutralize this threat.
Beyond the battlefield, Israel’s war against Hamas is deeply intertwined with domestic and international politics. Netanyahu faces growing pressure both at home and abroad to bring the conflict to a conclusion, but his options are limited by his coalition’s demands and the strategic realities on the ground.
Netanyahu’s governing coalition, composed of far-right figures such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, is adamant that the war must continue until Hamas is completely destroyed. Any suggestion of a ceasefire, even after Sinwar’s death, has been met with staunch opposition from these ministers. Smotrich has publicly called for intensifying military pressure in Gaza, while Ben Gvir has advocated for “absolute victory” before considering any halt in the fighting. As a result, Netanyahu’s ability to negotiate a ceasefire or engage in diplomacy is constrained by the need to maintain his coalition’s support.
At the same time, international pressure on Israel is mounting, particularly from the United States. The Biden administration has been a key supporter of Israel’s right to defend itself, but it has also pushed for greater humanitarian aid access to Gaza and urged Israel to consider off-ramps that could lead to a ceasefire. In recent weeks, the U.S. reportedly issued an ultimatum to Israel, threatening to cut off military aid if there is not a significant improvement in the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza by the end of November 2023.
For the U.S., the continuation of the conflict poses not only a humanitarian concern but also a political one. The ongoing war has become a divisive issue within the Democratic Party, with many progressive members calling for an immediate ceasefire. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, has emphasized the need for the war to end, calling for a ceasefire to prevent further civilian casualties and regional instability.
On the other hand, Republican candidate Donald Trump has offered unwavering support for Netanyahu, framing the war as part of a broader struggle against radical Islamist terrorism. This alignment suggests that Netanyahu may feel less pressure to end the conflict if he believes that Trump could return to the White House and reinforce U.S. backing for his policies.
Yahya Sinwar’s death is certainly a major event in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, but whether it represents a decisive turning point remains to be seen. While Sinwar’s removal from the battlefield weakens Hamas in the short term, the group has demonstrated resilience and adaptability over the years. Israel’s broader objectives—destroying Hamas as a fighting force, securing the release of hostages, and restoring deterrence with Hezbollah—are far from being achieved.
For Netanyahu, the path forward is complicated by both internal political constraints and external pressures. His government’s right-wing factions are pushing for a continuation of the war until Hamas is fully neutralized, while the U.S. and the international community are advocating for a ceasefire and humanitarian relief.
