In the Middle East, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday proposed a two-day ceasefire in Gaza. The truce, aimed at halting over a year of conflict between Israel and Hamas, is paired with a limited exchange of hostages in the hope of laying the groundwork for a broader peace agreement. President Sisi’s proposal was announced at a press conference in Cairo, where he outlined a two-day truce plan, potentially followed by a ten-day negotiation period.
The plan involves the exchange of four Israeli hostages held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners currently in Israeli jails. This limited exchange is intended as a confidence-building measure to create momentum for a broader ceasefire and to ease the humanitarian crisis impacting Gaza’s civilian population.
Sisi’s call for a truce comes amid intense military activity, with Israel intensifying its airstrikes on Gaza while also contending with Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and a recent confrontation with Iran. On Saturday, Israel launched targeted airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, marking the second significant strike against Iranian assets following an earlier retaliatory action on October 1.
These developments have prompted international appeals for restraint. The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to meet on Monday at Iran’s request to address Israel’s recent strikes, which reportedly killed four Iranian soldiers. Tehran has called for a condemnation of these actions and reiterated its position of not wanting war, despite pledging a measured response to what it views as provocations.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, addressing his cabinet, emphasized that while Iran is not seeking an escalation, it would take “appropriate measures” if further provoked. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also indicated that Tehran received prior warnings about the attack, hinting at potential channels of communication meant to contain the conflict.
Despite these tensions, global markets responded positively to the news that the Israeli strikes avoided Iran’s oil and energy infrastructure. Crude oil prices, which have been fluctuating amid regional instability, dropped by as much as five percent on Monday before stabilizing slightly.
Sisi’s two-day truce proposal has not yet received formal responses from either Israel or Hamas. Egypt, alongside Qatar and the United States, has been engaged in mediating indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas for months with limited progress. Although Israeli officials have expressed a willingness to consider “painful concessions” to reach an agreement, ongoing hostilities and conflicting demands have hindered progress.
One key point of contention remains Hamas’ insistence on a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a demand that Israel has consistently rejected. However, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hinted earlier on Sunday that concessions might be needed if Israel is to achieve its long-term objectives in the region, noting that “military action alone will not be sufficient.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who spoke on Sunday at a memorial commemorating the victims of Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack, faces mounting pressure from families of Israeli hostages held in Gaza. Many families have publicly urged the government to broker an agreement following the killing of prominent Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, which occurred earlier in October.
On the diplomatic front, Israeli spy chief David Barnea is currently in Qatar, where he is engaging in negotiations aimed at restarting hostage-exchange talks. Sisi’s plan may align with the broader regional push for mediated negotiations, but its success will largely depend on Israel and Hamas’s willingness to compromise.
The situation in Gaza remains volatile, with ongoing Israeli airstrikes resulting in extensive damage and civilian casualties. The Lebanese health ministry reported that at least 21 people were killed on Sunday in Israeli strikes targeting southern Lebanon, which included residential areas and infrastructure in cities like Sidon and the village of Ain Baal, near the Israeli border.
According to an AFP tally based on official data, the total death toll in Lebanon has now reached at least 1,615 since September 23, though the true number is likely higher due to incomplete reporting from the conflict zones. The Israeli military confirmed on Sunday that it had killed 70 Hezbollah fighters in ground operations in Lebanon, while losing five of its own soldiers in the process, bringing Israel’s military fatalities in Lebanon to 37 since the operation began last month.
The crisis in Gaza is similarly severe. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, at least 42,924 Palestinians—many of them civilians—have been killed in the Israeli offensive, which has resulted in widespread destruction across the territory. The humanitarian crisis has reached a breaking point, with civilians facing a lack of food, water, and medical supplies amid ongoing sieges and blockades.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has issued an urgent appeal for the protection of Gaza’s civilians, describing their plight as “unbearable.” Guterres’ spokesperson highlighted the critical need for safe passage for civilians trapped in the northern part of Gaza, where Israeli operations are most concentrated.
The intensified bombardment has trapped residents under siege conditions, with basic needs and mobility severely restricted. Bilal al-Hajri, a resident of northern Gaza, told reporters that the situation is dire: “None of us can leave home even to provide some food and drink… Anyone who leaves is targeted.”
The Gaza Civil Defense reported on Sunday that an Israeli airstrike on a school building sheltering displaced Palestinian families had killed at least nine people. The Israeli military, while acknowledging the report, has stated that it is investigating the incident.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has reverberated throughout the region, drawing in Iran-backed groups from countries including Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. These proxy forces, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, have escalated military engagements with Israel, further complicating efforts to de-escalate the situation. In Lebanon alone, the presence of Hezbollah forces has significantly affected the civilian population, contributing to widespread displacement and casualties.
Israeli forces have extended their operations into Hezbollah strongholds across southern Lebanon, carrying out strikes that have claimed dozens of lives, including both militants and civilians. The rising civilian toll has prompted Lebanon to call for international intervention, with several humanitarian organizations urging an immediate ceasefire.
As tensions continue to escalate, President Sisi’s proposal could represent a pivotal moment in efforts to mitigate the conflict’s humanitarian impact and establish a pathway to peace. By focusing initially on a limited ceasefire and a strategic hostage exchange, Sisi appears to be testing a framework that would enable dialogue without requiring immediate resolution on larger territorial disputes.
The timing of Sisi’s proposal, following Israel’s strikes on Iranian military assets, may reflect Cairo’s desire to prevent further regional escalation. Egypt’s role as a mediator, bolstered by its longstanding ties with both the United States and various factions within the Palestinian territories, positions it uniquely to facilitate these initial trust-building steps.
However, numerous obstacles remain. The continued involvement of Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups raises the potential for broader military conflicts, especially given recent Israeli actions against Iranian forces. Meanwhile, both Israel and Hamas remain publicly committed to their opposing positions, with Hamas demanding an end to Israel’s presence in Gaza and Israel seeking to neutralize Hamas’ influence and military capabilities.
