As world leaders convene in New York for the annual United Nations General Assembly, the Middle East is once again the focal point of global attention due to a sharp escalation in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. This latest surge in violence has brought Lebanon and Israel to the verge of all-out war, marking the deadliest confrontation since the 2006 war between the two sides.
The death toll has been staggering. On Monday, Israel launched a series of strikes targeting Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon, killing nearly 500 people, including 35 children, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claimed to have hit 1,600 Hezbollah targets and neutralized a “large number” of militants in the process. Tuesday brought additional attacks, pushing the region even closer to the brink of a more widespread conflict.
These devastating strikes follow a series of coordinated sabotage operations targeting Hezbollah’s communication networks last week. Those attacks left 39 dead and almost 3,000 wounded. Hezbollah, in response, has intensified its rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory, further escalating the situation.
Now, concerns are rising about the possibility of an Israeli ground invasion into southern Lebanon, a move that could trigger even more severe and widespread fighting.
Prospect of All-Out War
The growing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has renewed fears of a full-scale war in the region, an outcome that both parties, for now, appear to be trying to avoid. In an analysis for Foreign Policy, Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, highlighted the delicate balancing act both sides are engaged in.
“Although a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is a real possibility, both parties still prefer a diplomatic solution,” wrote Ghaddar. “Israel is trying to keep its attacks targeted, and Hezbollah is trying hard not to provoke Israel or be forced to use its most valuable military assets — namely, precision missiles — which Iran regards as an insurance policy.”
The key to understanding the next phase of this conflict lies in how Iran, Hezbollah’s chief backer, chooses to react. Iran has long supported Hezbollah as part of its regional strategy to maintain influence and counter Israeli power, but a direct confrontation with Israel remains something Tehran has sought to avoid, at least for now.
Iran’s Role in the Crisis
Iran’s involvement in the region’s complex geopolitics became more evident on Tuesday when Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the UN’s perceived inaction in response to Israel’s military strikes. Speaking on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter), Pezeshkian voiced his frustration with the international community, calling the UN’s lack of intervention “senseless and incomprehensible.”
“In my meeting with the Secretary General of the United Nations, I said the UN’s inaction against the crimes of the occupying regime is senseless and incomprehensible,” Pezeshkian stated. He further emphasized his concern over the widening conflict across the Middle East, warning that Lebanon could become “another Gaza” if the international community fails to intervene.
Pezeshkian’s rhetoric underscores a broader concern for Iran: the increasing tension between Hezbollah and Israel. However, Iran’s leadership remains divided on how to proceed. Hezbollah is not just a proxy but a strategic asset for Iran, primarily in terms of deterring Israeli attacks on its nuclear program. As a result, Iran is unlikely to push Hezbollah toward an all-out confrontation unless it deems it absolutely necessary.
Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute, highlighted the nuances of Iran’s stance in a recent interview with Bloomberg Television.
“President Pezeshkian doesn’t really speak for the IRGC or the hard side of Iranian power,” Salem said. “It’s often the case in Iran that they send soft messages in one area and hard messages in another. But it is also true that Iran does not want Hezbollah to go into an all-out war with Israel. It wants to preserve Hezbollah as a long-term deterrent for Iran itself, not for Hamas or anything related to the Palestinian issue.”
Salem suggests that while Iran may provide logistical and military support to Hezbollah, it is not in Tehran’s interest to see Hezbollah exhausted in a major war with Israel. Instead, Iran appears to prefer a strategic de-escalation that would allow it to keep Hezbollah intact for future conflicts, particularly regarding its own security concerns.
Israel and Hezbollah: A Dangerous Stalemate
While Hezbollah continues to engage in rocket attacks against Israeli towns and cities, and Israel strikes back with punishing air raids, there is a dangerous stalemate between the two sides. Neither Hezbollah nor Israel seems willing to take the first decisive step toward an all-out war, but each day of escalations increases the likelihood of a broader conflict.
In a series of posts on X, Michael Young, a senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, outlined the current strategic logic behind Hezbollah’s actions.
“There is much talk of Israel wanting an all-out war in Lebanon. In fact, what we’re seeing today was long expected for when Israel redeployed its troops to the north,” Young wrote. “We’re in an escalation to affect the outcome of negotiations, not to provoke an all-out war.”
Young suggests that the current escalation is part of a broader negotiation strategy between the two sides, with both Israel and Hezbollah using the threat of greater violence as leverage to secure more favorable terms in any potential ceasefire or peace talks.
“The Israelis are effectively telling Hezbollah: If you want an all-out war, then go ahead and provoke one, and you will be responsible for Lebanon’s destruction. But if you don’t want one, you will have to keep up with our escalations, which you cannot do.”
This logic of controlled escalation carries immense risks. As Hezbollah tries to maintain its retaliatory posture by launching missiles into Israel, Israel continues its bombardments of Hezbollah-held territories in southern Lebanon, effectively depopulating large areas and displacing thousands of civilians.
As tensions mount in the Middle East, the international community is watching with increasing concern. So far, efforts to de-escalate the situation have been limited. The UN Security Council has yet to issue a strong statement on the conflict, in part due to divisions between its permanent members. US President Joe Biden has called for restraint on both sides, but there are few signs that Washington is willing to mediate directly between Israel and Hezbollah.
Washington’s priority remains the protection of its ally, Israel. The US continues to provide Israel with military aid and advanced defense systems like Iron Dome, which has intercepted many of the rockets fired by Hezbollah. Still, American officials are wary of a broader regional war that could draw in other actors, including Iran.
Iran’s Calculations: A Delicate Balance
Iran faces a complex set of challenges as it weighs its next moves. On one hand, Tehran wants to avoid a direct military confrontation with Israel and the US. Past encounters, including the killing of senior Iranian military figures such as Qassem Soleimani, have shown that the costs of such a conflict would be immense.
Furthermore, Iran is keenly aware of the geopolitical landscape, especially as the US approaches another presidential election. The possibility of former President Donald Trump returning to power looms large in Tehran’s calculations. Iranian leaders fear that a major escalation in the Middle East could bring Trump back into the political arena, potentially reversing any diplomatic gains made under Biden’s administration.
As long as these dynamics remain in play, Iran is likely to continue its strategy of using Hezbollah as a proxy to pressure Israel, while avoiding an open conflict that could destabilize the entire region.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah shows no signs of immediate resolution. While neither side appears eager to escalate to full-scale war, the daily violence continues to claim lives and displace civilians, pushing Lebanon and Israel ever closer to the brink.
International actors, particularly the UN, face a critical challenge in bringing the two sides to the negotiating table. If diplomacy fails and hostilities continue, the Middle East could once again become a battleground for regional powers, with devastating consequences for millions of people. The coming days will be critical in determining whether the current tensions spiral into a broader war or whether a fragile peace can be brokered before it is too late.
