The recent royal order issued by King Salman of Saudi Arabia on August 8 marks a significant political development within the Kingdom. This decree permits the Saudi cabinet to be convened in the absence of both King Salman and his prime minister, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).
This change in protocol will see the most senior cabinet member, who is also a descendant of the founding father of the modern Saudi state, King Abdul Aziz Al Saud, preside over such meetings. This decision highlights evolving power dynamics within the royal family, casting light on the shifting structures of authority and influence in Saudi Arabia.
Historically, the roles of deputy crown prince and deputy prime minister have remained vacant since MBS was promoted to crown prince in 2017 and subsequently to prime minister five years later. This has led to ambiguity about the third most powerful individual within the Saudi hierarchy. The lack of a clear successor beyond the crown prince has made it difficult to gauge the internal power distribution and speculate about potential candidates for these critical roles.
The decision-making processes in Saudi Arabia have traditionally been intricate, reflecting the historical struggles for power within the royal family. After King Saud, the eldest son of Abdul Aziz, assumed the throne, his centralized power approach, erratic financial decisions, and foreign policy misadventures led to a crisis. His half-brother and crown prince, Faisal, orchestrated a coup with the backing of the family and the religious elite, culminating in Saud’s abdication in 1964. This pivotal event underscored the volatility and factionalism that characterized early Saudi governance.
In the aftermath, King Faisal introduced a governance model designed to distribute power more broadly among the descendants of Abdul Aziz. This aimed to prevent the centralization of authority within a single faction of the family. Faisal’s strategy was to empower his brothers, who had supported him in ousting Saud, creating a power-sharing arrangement that would theoretically prevent similar crises. This horizontal power distribution allowed the emergence of institutional fiefdoms, where princes controlled various governmental departments, enhancing their influence through patronage networks.
Over time, this system cultivated a hierarchical structure within the Saudi royal family. A cadre of over 30 half-brothers emerged beneath the king and crown prince, representing a pool of potential contenders for the throne. Factors such as seniority, maternal lineage, and the strategic importance of their institutional domains shaped this hierarchy. The appointment of Prince Fahd as the second deputy prime minister in 1967 marked a significant evolution in this power dynamic. Although no formal deputy crown prince role existed at the time, Fahd’s prominent position as interior minister and his status as the eldest of the influential Sudairi Seven solidified his path to kingship.
The Sudairi Seven, a powerful group of full brothers from one of Abdul Aziz’s marriages, demonstrated the importance of family alliances and support from influential royal factions in ascending to power. Subsequent appointments to the second deputy prime minister position were driven by similar considerations. Notably, Prince Abdullah, who assumed this role in 1975, had led the Saudi Arabian National Guard and possessed significant tribal affiliations, enhancing his political stature. Abdullah’s ascension to the throne in 2005 and his eventual appointment of Prince Muqrin as deputy crown prince in 2014 reflected the enduring influence of these internal dynamics.
However, the succession of King Salman in 2015 marked a departure from these long-standing patterns. Salman swiftly restructured the royal power landscape, removing two crown princes in quick succession and elevating his son, Mohammed bin Salman, to the role of crown prince. This move signaled a shift away from the traditional power-sharing arrangements among half-brothers and their allies. Salman and MBS have since undertaken measures to dismantle the influence of rival factions and powerful princes, using administrative reforms and an anti-corruption campaign to consolidate their authority.
The concentration of power within the hands of the king and his son has transformed the role of the Saudi monarch from being the first among equals (primus inter pares) to the ultimate sovereign (ultimum imperium). This centralization of authority has reshaped the kingdom’s governance structure, reducing the influence of competing royal factions and enhancing the king’s direct control over state affairs. In this new paradigm, proximity to the king and crown prince has become the primary determinant of an individual’s position within the royal hierarchy.
The recent royal order allowing the eldest descendants of Abdul Aziz to chair cabinet meetings in the absence of the king and crown prince provides insights into the current power dynamics below the top echelons of Saudi leadership. Among the senior royal members of the cabinet, Prince Mansour bin Miteb and Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman stand out due to their age and experience. However, their advanced years relative to the crown prince suggest that they are unlikely to be considered for the role of deputy crown prince, leaving the spotlight on younger royals.
The younger royals, holding key government portfolios, are likely contenders for future leadership roles. For example, Prince Khalid bin Salman, the defense minister and one of King Salman’s youngest sons, represents a prominent figure in this emerging generation. Unlike previous generations, where princes often inherited ministries from their fathers, the current young royals have assumed their roles without direct familial legacies. This indicates a shift towards meritocracy and personal loyalty to the king and crown prince as critical factors in gaining and maintaining power.
King Salman’s recent decree to allow senior descendants of Abdul Aziz to convene cabinet meetings in his and MBS’s absence illustrates the evolving power dynamics within the Saudi royal family. The traditional horizontal power distribution among the various branches of Abdul Aziz’s descendants has been replaced by a more centralized model centered around the king and his direct line. This shift reflects the changing nature of governance in Saudi Arabia, where personal relationships and loyalty to the king and crown prince increasingly dictate the kingdom’s political landscape. As Saudi Arabia continues to navigate these changes, the role of younger royals and their relationship with the king and crown prince will be pivotal in shaping the future of the Saudi state.
