The recent overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a seismic shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East, reverberating across global power dynamics. Assad’s fall represents a significant setback for Iran and Russia, whose military and diplomatic support were pivotal to the Syrian strongman’s survival throughout the civil war that began in 2011.
However, the impact is far-reaching, especially for Russia, which not only committed military resources to bolster Assad’s regime but also worked tirelessly to restore Syria’s international standing, including facilitating its readmission to the Arab League.
This development raises critical questions about Moscow’s influence in Syria and the broader region. At first glance, Assad’s ousting appears to undermine Russia’s position, but a deeper examination reveals a calculated maneuver by President Vladimir Putin to preserve Moscow’s core strategic interests in Syria, even amidst political upheaval.
Russia’s military intervention in 2015 was a turning point in the Syrian conflict. Employing devastating air campaigns, including the deployment of Sukhoi fighter jets, Moscow turned the tide of the war in Assad’s favor. This intervention was not just about saving Assad but served Russia’s broader strategic objectives:
- Showcasing Military Power: Russia demonstrated its capacity to challenge Western dominance, projecting itself as a global power capable of protecting allies.
- Restoring Geopolitical Influence: The intervention allowed Russia to reassert its presence in the Middle East, reversing the decline in influence it suffered after the Soviet Union’s collapse.
- Securing Strategic Assets: Moscow safeguarded its two critical military facilities in Syria—Tartus, a warm-water naval port, and the Hmeimim airbase near Latakia. These installations are vital for Russia’s operations in the Mediterranean and beyond.
While its military intervention solidified Assad’s grip on power, Russia also invested heavily in diplomatic efforts. Moscow brokered agreements with various Middle Eastern countries, pushing for Syria’s reintegration into regional frameworks. This culminated in Syria’s readmission to the Arab League in 2022 after more than a decade of isolation.
Russia’s balancing act extended to maintaining ties with Sunni monarchies like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. This diplomatic approach paid dividends, fostering a partnership between OPEC and non-OPEC members, including Russia. The resulting OPEC+ agreement cemented Moscow’s role in global energy markets, granting it significant leverage alongside Saudi Arabia.
Assad’s Downfall: A Blow to Russia?
Despite these efforts, Assad’s fall could be perceived as a significant blow to Russia’s Middle Eastern ambitions. Moscow had provided extensive military and diplomatic backing to ensure Assad’s survival. Yet, Assad’s inability to reconcile with regional adversaries like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or accommodate the Syrian opposition, frustrated Russian leaders. This deadlock weakened Assad’s position and allowed rebel factions, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to gain ground.
The Kremlin’s apparent disenchantment with Assad became evident during the international conference in Doha on December 7, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov refrained from defending Assad’s regime. The subsequent withdrawal of Russian troops and diplomatic staff from Syria underscored Moscow’s shifting priorities.
The rise of HTS and its leader, Mohammad al-Jolani, has reshaped the Syrian opposition’s narrative. Formerly linked to extremist groups like al-Qaeda, Jolani has pivoted toward a platform advocating peaceful coexistence among Syria’s diverse religious communities. This rebranding has attracted international attention, including from Russia, which has reportedly maintained open channels of communication with opposition groups.
Significantly, Syrian opposition leaders have assured Moscow of the safety of its military bases and diplomatic missions. This development indicates that Russia’s interests in Syria might endure despite the regime change.
Russia’s muted response to Assad’s overthrow reflects a pragmatic approach aimed at preserving its long-term stakes in Syria. By securing guarantees for its military installations and fostering ties with opposition groups, Moscow has mitigated the immediate risks to its influence. Additionally:
- Humanitarian Asylum for Assad: Reports suggest that Russia facilitated Assad’s safe exit, granting him asylum to ensure a peaceful transition of power.
- Military Base Security: The Tartus and Hmeimim facilities remain operational, providing Russia with strategic footholds in the Mediterranean.
- Focus on Ukraine: With its resources stretched by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia may have chosen to prioritize its military efforts closer to home.
The fall of Assad has sparked varied reactions worldwide. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, in a statement on Truth Social, attributed Assad’s downfall to Russia’s declining capabilities amid heavy losses in Ukraine. “Assad is gone… Russia lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine,” Trump wrote, suggesting that Moscow’s weakened state led to its disengagement from Syria.
However, Russian officials have dismissed Trump’s claims of excessive casualties in Ukraine, emphasizing that their strategic pivot in Syria was a calculated decision rather than a sign of weakness.
The overthrow of Assad represents both an opportunity and a challenge for the Middle East. For Iran, Assad’s primary backer alongside Hezbollah, his removal undermines their regional influence. Tehran had relied on Assad’s regime to maintain its supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon and project power across the Levant.
For Turkey, Assad’s departure could facilitate a resolution to the refugee crisis and the Kurdish question. Erdogan’s longstanding ambition to resettle Syrian refugees in northern Syria aligns with the opposition’s goals, potentially opening avenues for cooperation.
