The killing of Hamas executive Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut has intensified the threat posed by Hamas, Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, and jihadists. Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah has warned that Hezbollah will retaliate for the killing of any representative of the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance in Lebanon. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for the killing of any representative of the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance, including Hamas, the Yemeni Houthis, and Iraqi militias, alongside the Lebanese Shiite militia and the Islamic Republic.
Hezbollah could opt for a retaliation far from the Israeli-Lebanese border, as they do not want to drag Lebanon into a full-fledged war. The firing of 62 rockets at an Israeli observation post on Saturday was a preliminary response to the Al-Arouri killing. Nasrallah’s representative to Iraq, Mohammad Hussein Al-Kawtharani, returned to Baghdad to coordinate attacks on US targets in Iraq with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.
Mr. Al-Kawtharani, a US Treasury-designated global terrorist, has a US$10 million bounty on his head. His return coincided with the US killing of an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leader in retaliation for recent attacks on American personnel and Iraqi steps to remove the U.S.-led international military coalition against the Islamic State from the country. Mr. Al-Arouri, a hardliner within Hamas, grew close to Mr. Nasrallah after his arrival in Lebanon, strained by Lebanese Shiite support for President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war.
Nasrallah called for replacing Israel with a Palestinian state, stating that “Here you (Israelis) don’t have a future. The land of Palestine is for the Palestinians.” Hamas’ best option is to strike abroad at Israeli embassies, diplomatic facilities, and representatives, as rocket barrage fired from Gaza is unlikely to be sufficient. Hamas is not well positioned to successfully target Israeli government offices and officials in Israel.
Islamic State spokesman Abu Ḥudhayfah Al-Ansari has called on Muslims in the West to renew their activities and revive their blessed operations in the heart of the homes of Jews and Christians. The group has made attacks on Shiites, who it views as polytheists, one of its hallmarks. The group is displeased by Iranian suggestions that the Islamic Republic would accept a two-state resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if it was the Palestinians’ choice.
Ansari accused Hamas, its archrival, President Mahmoud Abba’s Palestine Authority and Al Fatah movement, as well as a United Arab Emirates-backed former Gaza security chief, Mohammed Dahlan, of being US and/or Iranian proxies. He insisted that the battle with the Jews is not a religious patriotic or nationalistic battle, but rather a battle that derives its legitimacy from the Quran and Sunnah, Prophet Mohammed’s deeds and sayings. The group has claimed responsibility for two explosions in the Iranian city of Kerman that killed at least 89 people.
Israel is likely to engage in a tit-for-tat strategy of targeting Palestinians in third countries, similar to the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. This time, Israel will target Hamas officials regardless of their political affiliation. In a potential tit-for-tat, Israel could prioritize Hamas representatives in countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and Malaysia, which allow Hamas to operate and raise funds. Qatar is the main mediator in negotiating further prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas. In November, Qatar facilitated a one-week truce in Gaza, where Hamas released over 100 hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinians incarcerated in Israeli prisons. Hamas still holds 129 hostages, including bodies of captives killed in the hostilities in Gaza.
This assassination spree could play into the hands of Hamas, a movement proven capable of surviving the killing by Israel of its successive leaders over the past two decades. Hamas’ strategy, as articulated by Hamas’ leader, Mr. Al-Arouri, is to keep the Palestinians radicalized and keep them angry. The jury is out on whether Hamas overshot its goal by provoking the devastation and carnage rained on Gaza by Israel’s response to the October 7 attack.
Israel has focused on security and humiliating control of Palestinians in its zeal to thwart the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel at the expense of socio-economic development. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s proposal for post-war governance of Gaza suggests that Israel will continue to refrain from playing its trump card, with reconstruction and development of Gaza managed by a compliant Palestinian authority being an afterthought rather than Israel’s responsibility.
