South Korea, the world’s sixth-ranked military power, has demonstrated significant strategic and technological prowess, with the signing of the Washington Declaration in April bolstering nuclear deterrence on the Korean Peninsula. The Nuclear Consultative Group bolsters South Korea’s security, shielding it from regional threats, while the military grapples with a dual crisis from North Korea.
North Korea’s missile launches in 2022 surged significantly, and it recently tested a solid-fuel engine for a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, presenting the capacity for surprise attacks without the need for refueling. South Korea’s security considerations are also entangled in the great power competition between the United States and China, especially in the Taiwan Strait.
The potential for US-China military confrontations and escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait raises the possibility of a “Taiwan contingency,” requiring South Korea to make a critical decision. South Korea’s economic losses and potential for armed conflict if the Taiwan Strait is blocked could be significant, as it directly impacts its trade-dependent economy. The waterway, which transports over 90% of South Korea’s energy imports and 30% of its annual imports, could be disrupted, causing comprehensive consequences. The US may redirect its forces, including US Forces Korea, to create an unstable security vacuum on the Korean Peninsula, placing a heavier burden on South Korea to manage risks from North Korea.
The South Korean government is torn between its historical alliance with the US and its relationship with China. President Yoon’s opposition to China’s attempts to alter the status quo in the South China Sea underscores the need for strategic thinking. These external challenges compound South Korea’s internal struggles, putting its leaders in a precarious position. Responses to these threats will have far-reaching implications for the nation’s geopolitical positioning and security posture.
South Korea’s military faces internal challenges beyond the manpower shortage, including modest salaries, poor working conditions, and an outdated military culture that struggles to keep up with modern expectations. President Yoon’s pledge of US$1,500 per month for conscripts has exacerbated recruitment difficulties for career soldiers, as they start with salaries around $1,300, which dissuades young professionals from applying.
Despite Yoon’s administration’s announcement of a 2.5% salary increase for all career soldiers in 2024, the existing challenges have not been mitigated. The current personnel shortage intensifies the burden and workload on those who remain, contributing to the departure of young career soldiers and exacerbating the military’s overall manpower crisis. The dwindling appeal of a military career is also reflected in the weakening popularity of military academies, which serve as the cornerstone for supporting professional soldiers.
The South Korean military faces a personnel shortage, causing a significant workload and causing young career soldiers to leave. The Naval Academy’s application ratio has dropped from 38.5:1 in 2019 to 18.7:1 in 2023, and the Army ROTC has opened additional recruitment rounds due to insufficient applications.
The recruitment of noncommissioned officers (NCOs) also fell short of objectives, with an overall rate of just 77.1% across all branches in 2022. The dropping birth rate in South Korea, which is worse than during Europe’s Black Death in the 14th century, further exacerbates these challenges. The Ministry of National Defense removed the target figure of 500,000 reserve forces from the Law on Defense Reform in 2023, acknowledging the need for a downsized military and the urgent need to reform the entire military structure.
To craft a resilient future, South Korea must address both external geopolitical risks and internal organizational hurdles. The escalating challenge posed by North Korea’s advanced missile technology necessitates intensifying missile defense capabilities and enhancing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. This involves technological upgrades and deeper strategic coordination with allies, particularly the United States and Japan. The South Korean government should actively draw its trilateral cooperation out to deal with these threats, implementing practical steps and enacting a more concrete and regularized defense framework.
South Korea must prepare for potential Taiwan contingencies by strengthening naval capabilities and securing maritime supply routes, collaborating with the US Navy. The country’s military readiness against North Korea’s conventional armed attacks should be prepared for redeployment of the USFK. Addressing the chronic manpower shortage requires a multifaceted approach, including technological advancements, integrating civilian experts into specialized military roles, partnerships with private security corporations, and recruiting and deploying female personnel.
Cultural transformation within the military is also crucial, improving living and working conditions, offering competitive salaries, and fostering a respectful environment. A comprehensive strategy should be devised to enhance external defense capabilities against regional threats and Taiwan crises, while addressing internal challenges through technological integration, cultural reform, and strategic partnerships. This balanced approach is key to building a resilient, adaptable military capable of navigating the evolving global landscape.
