In 2023, North Korea continued its foreign policy line, following a failed attempt to compromise with the United States during the former Trump administration. The country’s domestic policy was shaped by the rivalry between the United States and China, with China providing aid to maintain stability in North Korea as a strategic buffer zone.
North Korea, despite its long-standing mistrust towards China, is currently facing limited options due to their current situation. The United States is likely to maintain a hardline attitude, and the UN-imposed sanctions regime makes economic interactions with other countries difficult.
North Korea leaders view nuclear weapons as guaranteeing their long-term political and physical survival. There is little hope for the revival of intra-Korean cooperation, as it has always been a thinly disguised form of aid shipped from the wealthy South to the impoverished North.
The right-wing government in Seoul has adopted a hardline stance towards Pyongyang, but even a more liberal South Korean government would not violate the UN sanctions regime and would not provide North Korea with more meaningful aid. With access to Chinese support, North Korea revised its economic policy, halting reforms from 2012 to 2019, which are now seen as potentially risky. The government’s efforts are now focused on reviving the centrally planned economy of the 1970s, which is economically inefficient but enhances state control.
North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is preparing for a dynastic transition, with his daughter Kim Ju Ae being prominently featured in public events. This could be due to Kim’s track record of promoting women to political positions, but it will take 10 to 15 years before her anointment is possible. If Kim becomes incapacitated, his younger sister Kim Yo Jong is likely to succeed him.
In 2023, Russia has re-emerged as a major player in North Korea, with visits from Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Kim’s own trip to the Russian Far East, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
The interactions between Russia and North Korea have been primarily military-focused, with reports of potential shipments of North Korean ammunition to Russian forces in Ukraine. These shipments could be significant due to the acute shortage of ammunition both sides in Ukraine are currently experiencing.
Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia in March 2023 hints at deeper military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. Rumors suggest transfers of Russian military technology to North Korea, including ballistic missile development technology, but these are skewed as they could contradict Russia’s national interests.
It is more likely that these hints are intended to exert pressure on the United States and South Korea, as South Korea is a major weapons exporter. Moscow suggests that potential South Korean arms shipments to Ukraine could provoke technology transfers from Russia to North Korea.
North Korea reopened after nearly three years of quarantine, with the entry of a new Chinese ambassador in March 2023 and visits from Russian and Chinese delegations in July. Since then, a significant number of North Korean citizens have returned and resumed air services to Russia and China.
However, this reopening is highly selective, with only half a dozen operating embassies. North Korea remains largely self-isolated and has renounced its brief foray into reformist policies. However, it can now rely on the support of China and Russia, both capable and willing to sustain the country indefinitely.
