US politics is experiencing new lows as Republican primaries approach for the November presidential election. Donald Trump’s CV is being considered for barring from the primaries due to insurrection charges, with Maine and Colorado already exempting him from the ballot.
The US Supreme Court will ultimately rule on this issue. Trump’s history of impeachment, facing 91 indictments, and court battles over sexual attacks add to the sense of foreboding. His violent speeches, invoking Hitlerite language, and refusal to believe in a peaceful transfer of power are adding to the sense of foreboding.
The 2024 US election coincides with a worldwide wave of elections, with states representing billions of people and around 50% of world GDP voting. Many states face potentially volatile election processes in geopolitically fraught times, as well as widespread domestic volatility.
Several global elections, such as the UK, EU, South Africa, India, and Taiwan, have direct impacts or implications for the US, especially regarding geopolitical rivalries and international economic coordination. The war in Ukraine and fear of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza spiral into a regional war, impacting and implicating the United States, the world’s regional power, and the privileges of full spectrum dominance and forward power projection.
The US election is pivotal on all fronts, geoeconomically, geopolitically, and politically, with worldwide ramifications. Factionalisation is the core political problem, with a deeply divided political party system, high levels of political violence, an indicted GOP candidate leading a party uncommitted to free and fair elections, social and economic inequalities, and polarizations. The corporate dominance of both parties and their political-economic agendas remains.
Recent research shows that top executives of major US corporations are leaning even more heavily toward the GOP, even as they mouth slogans about diversity and face accusations of “wokism” from the Right. The corporate constituency behind a fascistic Trump-led political party has grown.
Racist divide and rule twinned with corporate freedom – the core of Trump’s political strategy – are a toxic recipe for political strife, violence, far-right and fascistic extremism, and state repression against popular resistance.
Barbara F Walter’s 2022 study, “How Civil Wars Start,” provides a crucial understanding of the “factionalisation” process and the road to civil war and political violence in the US. The legitimacy crisis in the US presidency is a fundamental issue, stemming from the authority of the two main parties and their leaders. The crisis is exemplified by Donald Trump and Joseph Biden, who are seen as the main contenders.
Trump’s age, criminal indictments, and march towards American-style fascism, while Biden’s age, health, and foot-dragging on indictments of Trump since 2021 are major complicating issues. The election outcome in 2024 could determine the outcome in eight swing states, with “None of the Above” winning the election.
Trump’s name on ballots in several states is in danger, potentially leading to the right-wing majority US Supreme Court ruling on barring him from the 2024 election. If Trump is exempt from the 14th Amendment’s Article 3, it would give any future president uncongenial to the GOP the freedom to refuse to leave office following electoral defeat.
Trump’s case revolves around the idea that a US president is not an officer of the country, which is seen as absurd. The claim that barring him for insurrection is anti-democratic reinforces the upside-down logics of American political culture.
The question of whether a peaceful power transfer will occur is raised, as there was no peaceful transfer in 2020. The possibility of the US breaking up along political lines is also questioned, indicating the new reality of global political life.
