As the monstrous Hurricane Milton hurtled toward the Florida coast, millions of residents braced themselves for the unprecedented surge in ocean water that would soon inundate their communities. At its core, Milton was a Category 3 storm on the widely recognized Saffir-Simpson scale, packing powerful winds. But as forecasters warned, the storm’s real threat lay not in its wind speeds, but in the storm surge — a phenomenon that experts say can be as deadly as the hurricane winds themselves.
Storm surge refers to the abnormal rise in seawater level caused solely by a storm’s pressure and winds. As hurricanes approach land, their intense winds push ocean water inland, raising the water level and flooding coastal areas. This surge can occur rapidly, often giving communities little time to react. Between 2013 and 2022, storm surge was responsible for 11% of direct hurricane-related deaths, demonstrating its deadly potential.
Historically, forecasters included storm surge predictions within the broader Saffir-Simpson scale, which measures hurricanes on a five-step gradient based on wind speed. However, in 2009, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) opted to decouple storm surge from wind measurements. They introduced color-coded maps and targeted warnings to inform communities about the specific flood risks they faced. This change marked a shift toward a more precise, localized approach to evacuation and preparedness efforts.
The decision to separate storm surge from the Saffir-Simpson scale has had a profound impact on how communities perceive hurricane danger. The previous system, which lumped storm surge into the overall categorization of a storm, often caused broad, sweeping evacuations based purely on wind threats. With Milton, however, the NHC’s more surgical approach has been on full display.
Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the NHC, explained how this shift has changed evacuation strategies. “I remember a day when a storm like this would have practically sent the entire state scrambling,” Rhome said. “It would have absolutely resulted in the evacuation of all of Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg. Now, you’re seeing that they have a big evacuation, but not everyone is being evacuated, and you’ve seen that with past storms, too.”
Rhome’s point highlights a new reality for Floridians: the days of blanket evacuations for entire cities or counties are gone. Instead, residents must now rely on real-time data and warnings that offer hyper-localized forecasts about how much water they can expect to surge into their neighborhoods. This “surgical” precision allows authorities to focus on high-risk areas while minimizing disruption for residents in less threatened regions.
In the case of Hurricane Milton, counties housing nearly 6 million Florida residents issued mandatory evacuation orders. These orders were driven primarily by concerns over the expected storm surge, which was predicted to exceed dangerous thresholds along the coast. Yet not all residents in these areas heeded the evacuation orders — some out of uncertainty about their risk, and others because they weren’t familiar with the new storm surge warning systems.
Despite Milton’s categorization as a Category 3 storm, its winds were not expected to cause the most damage. The primary concern was the powerful storm surge, which would inundate communities up and down Florida’s Gulf Coast, followed by torrential rains capable of causing catastrophic flooding.
By the time Milton made landfall near Siesta Key on Wednesday night, its devastating effects were already being felt. The storm pushed walls of water into low-lying areas, overwhelming seawalls and sending dangerous floodwaters into homes and businesses. The National Hurricane Center issued a flash flood emergency for the Tampa Bay area as torrential rains compounded the threat. Reports showed that Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg received a staggering 16.6 inches (42 centimeters) of rain by 10 p.m., submerging entire neighborhoods in waist-deep water.
Local officials in Tampa and St. Petersburg scrambled to rescue stranded residents as emergency services became overwhelmed by the sheer number of flood-related incidents. Many of the affected areas were not directly in the path of the hurricane’s strongest winds but were instead located in zones most vulnerable to storm surge and flash flooding.
For many Florida residents, Hurricane Milton has become a sobering reminder of the new risks posed by rising sea levels and climate change. The storm may not have packed the fierce winds associated with Category 4 or 5 hurricanes, but the storm surge and rains it unleashed were more than enough to cripple entire communities.
Since the NHC changed how it classifies storm surge, the public’s understanding of hurricane risks has been evolving, albeit slowly. Many people still associate hurricanes with wind speed alone, often underestimating the danger posed by rising waters. This has been particularly evident in the case of Milton, where some residents opted to remain in their homes despite official warnings of severe storm surge.
“It does take time to train and educate people and get them to trust these newer techniques,” Rhome noted. This education is crucial, as understanding one’s specific risk could mean the difference between life and death.
In the past, a Category 3 hurricane would have almost certainly led to mass evacuations of cities like Tampa, St. Petersburg, and surrounding areas, even if these regions weren’t directly in the storm’s path. But now, officials can issue more tailored evacuation orders, ensuring that only those most at risk are urged to leave. However, as Hurricane Milton demonstrated, this system only works if residents are aware of their unique vulnerability.
To better prepare communities for the dangers of storm surge, researchers and meteorologists use advanced computer models and simulations that factor in the storm’s size, pressure, wind field, and speed. These models predict how much water the storm will push toward the shore, and how far inland the water will travel.
One of the primary tools used is the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, which the National Weather Service employs to simulate storm surge in real time. The SLOSH model creates a map of potential storm surge inundation, which local emergency management officials can use to make informed decisions on evacuation zones.
These predictions are layered with factors like coastal topography, tides, and existing sea levels, giving forecasters a clearer picture of what to expect. But these tools aren’t perfect. Complex variables, such as the angle at which a storm approaches the coast, can dramatically influence surge behavior. As Hurricane Milton approached, for example, shifts in its track resulted in varying surge predictions for different parts of Florida’s west coast.
One of the ongoing challenges for emergency managers is public perception of storm surge risk. According to a study by the National Hurricane Survival Initiative, a significant percentage of coastal residents have little to no understanding of storm surge, often confusing it with rain-driven flooding or downplaying its severity. Public education campaigns have ramped up in recent years, but the need for better awareness remains high.
When Milton was first forecast, the messaging around the storm emphasized its potential for catastrophic surge. Local news outlets, radio stations, and social media platforms were filled with warnings about the imminent flood risks. Some residents responded swiftly, boarding up homes and evacuating. Others, however, were less convinced, recalling past hurricanes that caused minimal damage despite alarming forecasts.
Experts argue that trust in these newer models and communication methods will grow over time. But there is also a need for consistency in messaging. The color-coded storm surge maps, while informative, are still relatively new, and many people are unfamiliar with how to interpret them. As a result, some residents may delay evacuation or fail to understand their true level of risk.
As climate change continues to alter weather patterns, storms like Milton could become more frequent and more intense. Rising sea levels and warmer oceans are already contributing to larger, more dangerous storm surges. Coastal communities will need to continue adapting, not only by improving infrastructure but also by educating the public about the real dangers they face.
For officials in Florida and beyond, Hurricane Milton serves as a stark reminder that preparedness goes beyond sandbags and evacuation orders. It requires a concerted effort to understand the science behind these storms and to take the necessary precautions well before a hurricane makes landfall. As the state recovers from Milton’s impact, one thing is clear: the storm surge threat is here to stay, and adapting to it will be crucial in mitigating future disasters.
