In a significant development for Middle Eastern military dynamics, Saudi Arabia is reportedly accelerating efforts to acquire hypersonic missile technology to keep pace with regional adversary Iran. Recent reports indicate that Saudi officials have initiated discussions with Russia to explore options for acquiring this advanced missile technology, aiming to close the defense capability gap with Iran, which recently showcased its hypersonic missile prowess in a conflict with Israel. With Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Defense Minister Prince Khaled bin Salman Abdulaziz leading the push, Riyadh is evaluating multiple potential partnerships, signaling a significant step in the kingdom’s strategic defense ambitions.
The Middle East has witnessed a rapid acceleration in missile technology, largely due to Iran’s aggressive strides in developing and deploying hypersonic capabilities. Hypersonic missiles, traveling at speeds of Mach 5 and above, pose a unique challenge to traditional missile defense systems, thanks to their speed, maneuverability, and flight path variability. As of 2023, only a few countries possess these capabilities, namely the United States, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Iran’s advancement, however, marks the first instance of a Middle Eastern nation achieving hypersonic missile proficiency.
In response to Iran’s expanding missile arsenal, Saudi Arabia’s defense apparatus is intensifying efforts to bolster its own capabilities. With its regional adversary holding weapons capable of penetrating advanced air defenses, Riyadh’s security calculus is being redefined, leading to the reported exploration of an alliance with Russia for hypersonic technology. Defense Minister Prince Khaled bin Salman Abdulaziz recently confirmed that Saudi Arabia is evaluating various options to initiate a hypersonic missile program, with an eye on Russian collaboration as a possible avenue for expediting the process.
The push for hypersonic missile capabilities represents a marked shift in Saudi Arabia’s defense policy, traditionally aligned with Western allies, particularly the United States. Although still a possibility, a partnership with Russia suggests a broader diversification strategy within Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy framework. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has publicly supported expanding Saudi-Russian defense ties, seeing this as an opportunity for the kingdom to foster technological independence while securing its regional defense posture.
According to defense analysts, Saudi Arabia’s exploration of hypersonic technology, with Russia as a likely partner, could serve as a balancing move in the Middle Eastern military landscape, allowing Riyadh to project greater deterrence against its adversaries. Additionally, Russia’s existing expertise with hypersonic systems—evident in its “Avangard” and “Kinzhal” missiles—positions it as an appealing option for Saudi Arabia, especially as the United States remains reticent in sharing hypersonic technologies with non-NATO allies.
Iran’s hypersonic missile development has unfolded swiftly over the past few years. In 2023, Iran unveiled the “Fattah-1” and “Fattah-2” hypersonic missiles, showcasing capabilities that regional military analysts describe as game-changing. Painted in black and equipped with advanced propulsion and maneuvering technology, the “Fattah-1” can travel up to Mach 15, or approximately 5,000 meters per second. Iranian officials claim it is immune to existing missile defense systems, raising concerns among the United States and Israel, both of which have invested heavily in anti-missile technologies.
The “Fattah-1” has a range of 1,400 kilometers, a sufficient distance to strike targets across the region, including Israel. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps asserts that the missile’s ability to change altitudes and paths mid-flight renders it exceptionally difficult to intercept, thus posing a significant threat to adversarial air defense systems. In November 2023, Iran further expanded its arsenal with the introduction of “Fattah-2,” a more advanced model that reportedly reaches speeds between Mach 15 and Mach 20 and is equipped with a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV). This HGV capability extends the missile’s range and allows it to maintain high speeds, making it challenging for traditional radar systems to track and intercept.
Saudi Arabia’s interest in hypersonic missiles is motivated by several key factors. Firstly, the strategic balance in the Middle East has been under pressure with Iran’s growing missile capabilities, as demonstrated in recent conflicts involving hypersonic missile strikes against Israel. Secondly, the hypersonic missile race is quickly transforming the nature of warfare in the region, requiring rapid advancements in both offensive and defensive technologies.
A potential acquisition of hypersonic missile capabilities would offer Saudi Arabia multiple benefits:
- Deterrence and Regional Power Projection: Hypersonic missiles could provide Riyadh with a credible deterrent against Iran, enhancing Saudi Arabia’s regional influence and balancing Iran’s growing power.
- Enhanced National Security: Hypersonic missiles would be a strategic tool for responding to perceived Iranian threats, particularly as Iran’s missile reach extends to Saudi borders.
- Defense Autonomy: Developing or acquiring hypersonic technology allows Saudi Arabia to reduce dependence on the United States, aligning with the kingdom’s Vision 2030 initiative to diversify partnerships and achieve greater technological autonomy.
Saudi Arabia has not publicly disclosed the type of hypersonic system it seeks to acquire, whether it be a glide-vehicle-based missile or a high-speed cruise missile. However, given the versatility and advantages offered by the HGV systems seen in Iran’s “Fattah-2” missile, it is likely that Saudi Arabia will aim to acquire a comparable system.
Russia’s position as a global leader in hypersonic technology makes it a practical choice for Riyadh. Moscow has developed multiple hypersonic missile systems, such as the Avangard HGV and the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile, both designed to evade U.S. missile defenses. If Saudi Arabia’s discussions with Russia materialize into a formal defense partnership, Riyadh could benefit from Russian expertise and potentially even receive operational hypersonic systems within a few years.
Moscow, on its part, would likely welcome such a partnership, especially given the economic potential. Hypersonic missile deals could serve as a lucrative market for Russia amidst its own strained relations with Western nations, helping the Kremlin finance its domestic defense initiatives. A potential arms trade with Saudi Arabia could also strengthen Russia’s geopolitical leverage in the Middle East, allowing it to counterbalance U.S. influence in the region.
The United States is likely to monitor Saudi Arabia’s efforts closely, particularly as Riyadh explores partnerships with countries beyond its traditional allies. American policymakers have long viewed Saudi Arabia as a key pillar in its Middle Eastern strategy, providing stability in the Gulf and acting as a counterweight to Iranian influence. An intensifying Saudi-Russian defense partnership might create unease in Washington, which has traditionally supplied advanced weaponry to Riyadh.
The U.S. has been reluctant to share its hypersonic technology with non-NATO allies, and for Saudi Arabia, this has become a clear barrier to accessing the latest missile technology from its longstanding ally. Washington’s concerns may deepen should Saudi Arabia make significant advances in hypersonic capabilities with Russian support. Moreover, with Russia and China pushing for increased influence in the Middle East, a U.S.-allied nation acquiring hypersonic technology from Russia could further strain Riyadh-Washington relations.
While Russia remains a strong candidate, Saudi Arabia is reportedly leaving the door open to collaborations with other nations. Among the five countries with hypersonic missile technology, China stands as another potential partner. Beijing has made substantial advances in hypersonic systems, particularly with its DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle, and it might be open to sharing technology with Riyadh, especially given the close economic and strategic ties between the two nations.
For Saudi Arabia, the pursuit of hypersonic missile technology is not merely about keeping up with Iran but about achieving broader strategic autonomy. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan envisions a Saudi defense industry capable of producing advanced systems domestically, with hypersonic technology representing a pinnacle of such ambitions.
The potential acquisition of hypersonic missiles by Saudi Arabia carries significant implications for the Middle East’s security dynamics:
- Regional Arms Race: A Saudi acquisition of hypersonic missiles could spark a broader regional arms race, prompting other Gulf states to seek similar capabilities.
- Shift in U.S. Military Focus: With a new level of advanced weaponry in Saudi hands, the U.S. might need to adjust its military presence and support strategies in the region.
- Broader Global Ramifications: The hypersonic arms race is not confined to the Middle East. Saudi acquisition of these technologies may influence how other U.S. allies in other regions approach their defense policies.
Analysts warn that the Saudi-Iran competition could further destabilize the region, adding yet another layer to the complex web of geopolitical tensions. Hypersonic missiles, which are highly destabilizing due to their preemptive strike potential and virtually unstoppable nature, may add new security challenges for neighboring nations.
