The geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia is undergoing significant transformation with the establishment of the AUKUS and Quad alliances. These alliances, aimed at bolstering regional security and countering China’s growing influence, have sparked substantial discourse among regional actors, particularly within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Indonesia. As Southeast Asia grapples with the implications of these developments, there is increasing concern about the potential for destabilization and the undermining of ASEAN’s efforts to maintain a neutral and cooperative security environment.

AUKUS, a trilateral security pact involving Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, was inaugurated in 2021 with a clear focus on enhancing security in the Indo-Pacific region. One of the most notable aspects of AUKUS is the provision for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, marking a significant shift in regional security dynamics. Meanwhile, the Quad—comprising Japan, India, the United States, and Australia—has experienced a revitalization, positioning itself as a strategic forum dedicated to ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Both AUKUS and the Quad have been justified as necessary responses to China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific region. Their strategic goals include deterring potential acts of aggression, fostering military cooperation, and safeguarding crucial sea routes. However, these objectives raise concerns about their impact on the regional military equilibrium and the potential for an arms race. The introduction of nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS, for instance, could provoke a response from China, leading to further militarization of the region.

Similarly, the security cooperation emphasized by the Quad, while advantageous in addressing common challenges, may also be interpreted as an effort to encircle China, exacerbating tensions. From a Southeast Asian perspective, these developments are viewed with a mixture of caution and concern, particularly regarding their potential to marginalize ASEAN and diminish its influence in regional security matters.

ASEAN’s Strategic Concerns: Maintaining Regional Stability

As the foremost multilateral organization in the region, ASEAN has long advocated for principles of non-interference, dialogue, and peaceful resolution of disputes. These principles are central to ASEAN’s efforts in maintaining regional stability and promoting a cooperative security environment. ASEAN’s strategic vision emphasizes the importance of ASEAN centrality in the regional security architecture, with ASEAN-led mechanisms like the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) playing crucial roles in fostering dialogue and cooperation among member states and external partners.

However, the rise of AUKUS and the Quad presents significant challenges to these efforts. There is growing apprehension that the militarization associated with AUKUS, coupled with the strategic realignment promoted by the Quad, could shift the regional focus towards great power rivalry, undermining ASEAN’s role as a neutral platform for dialogue and cooperation. This worry is particularly significant given ASEAN’s historical role in promoting a balanced approach to regional security that avoids aligning too closely with any single power.

ASEAN’s centrality stems from its ability to bring together diverse actors to address common challenges. The emergence of AUKUS and the Quad, with their more exclusive memberships and security agendas, poses a threat to this delicate balance. By potentially marginalizing ASEAN’s influence, these alliances risk undermining the region’s stability and cohesion, leading to increased polarization and the possibility of conflict.

Indonesia’s Perspective: Balancing Regional Security and Neutrality

Indonesia, as ASEAN’s largest member state and a key actor in regional diplomacy, shares many of these concerns. Indonesia’s strategic interests lie in maintaining regional stability, avoiding entanglement in great power conflicts, and ensuring that ASEAN remains the primary forum for addressing regional security issues. Jakarta has consistently advocated for a balanced approach that upholds ASEAN’s centrality and avoids exacerbating regional tensions.

Indonesia’s response to AUKUS and the Quad has been cautious. While recognizing the importance of cooperation in addressing shared security challenges, Indonesia is wary of developments that could lead to increased polarization or militarization of the region. Indonesia’s response to AUKUS and the Quad has been characterized by calls for greater transparency and dialogue. Jakarta has urged the parties involved in AUKUS to engage more openly with ASEAN and its member states, emphasizing the need for initiatives that complement, rather than undermine, ASEAN’s objectives.

Similarly, Indonesia has advocated for a more inclusive approach to the Quad, one that involves ASEAN countries in key discussions and ensures that the Quad’s activities align with the region’s priorities. By doing so, Indonesia aims to prevent the alliances from sidelining ASEAN and maintain the region’s focus on cooperative security arrangements.

Risk of New SEATO: Historical Parallels and Contemporary Concerns

The potential consequences of AUKUS and the Quad’s rise are of great significance, particularly when considering the historical precedent set by the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO). Established in 1954 as a collective defense treaty aimed at containing communism during the Cold War, SEATO was widely viewed as an imposition of external interests on the region. The treaty ultimately failed to gain widespread regional support and was dissolved in 1977, leaving behind a legacy of distrust and division.

Concerns have now arisen that AUKUS and the Quad could inadvertently lead to the creation of a new alliance resembling SEATO, which would further divide the region and undermine ASEAN’s influence. Such a development would likely escalate existing tensions and result in a more fragmented and unstable Southeast Asia. The region could become increasingly embroiled in great power competition, with countries forced to align themselves with either China or the US-led alliances.

This scenario would undermine ASEAN’s efforts to maintain a security environment characterized by neutrality and inclusivity, potentially resulting in adverse consequences and volatility within the region. The creation of a new SEATO-like alliance would mark a significant departure from the principles that have underpinned ASEAN’s success in fostering regional stability and cooperation. It would also represent a major setback for ASEAN’s efforts to assert its centrality in regional security matters.

Mitigating Risks: Strengthening ASEAN’s Role in Regional Security

Given these potential outcomes, it is imperative that ASEAN and its member states adopt proactive measures to assert their role in regional security and prevent the establishment of a new SEATO-like alliance. Strengthening ASEAN’s ability to independently address regional security issues is crucial. This may involve enhancing existing ASEAN-led mechanisms, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS), to ensure their continued relevance and effectiveness in addressing emerging security challenges.

Additionally, ASEAN should continue to pursue confidence-building measures and diplomatic engagements with all relevant stakeholders, including China, the United States, and other Quad members. By doing so, ASEAN can help mitigate the risks associated with the rise of AUKUS and the Quad and ensure that these alliances do not undermine the region’s stability.

Engagement with AUKUS and the Quad should be pursued cautiously, ensuring that these alliances do not undermine the objectives of ASEAN. This necessitates advocating for inclusive and transparent security arrangements that involve ASEAN in key decision-making processes. By doing so, ASEAN can help ensure that the initiatives undertaken by AUKUS and the Quad complement rather than compete with its endeavors to promote stability and cooperation within the region.

Diplomacy and dialogue are essential tools in preventing the escalation of tensions and maintaining regional stability. ASEAN and its member states must actively engage with AUKUS and Quad members to foster open communication and build trust. This includes seeking assurances that the alliances’ activities will not lead to an arms race or exacerbate regional tensions.

Moreover, ASEAN should advocate for the inclusion of China in regional security dialogues, ensuring that all major stakeholders have a voice in shaping the region’s security architecture. By promoting inclusive dialogue, ASEAN can help reduce the risk of polarization and prevent the emergence of a new SEATO-like alliance.

Indonesia, in particular, can play a key role in facilitating dialogue between AUKUS, Quad members, and China. As a leading diplomatic actor in the region, Indonesia has the credibility and influence to bring together diverse actors and promote a balanced approach to regional security. Indonesia’s commitment to maintaining ASEAN centrality and avoiding great power conflicts positions it as a critical player in shaping the future of Southeast Asia’s security landscape.

The establishment of AUKUS and the Quad alliances has significantly shaped the evolving geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia. While these alliances offer opportunities for enhancing security cooperation, they also engender significant risks if not managed carefully. The possibility of these alliances leading to the creation of a new SEATO-like organization represents a grave concern, as it could undermine ASEAN’s central role in regional security and exacerbate polarization and militarization.

To prevent such an outcome, ASEAN and its member states, particularly Indonesia, must proactively assert their influence, foster inclusive dialogue, and ensure that regional security arrangements align with the principles of neutrality and cooperation that have long been the foundation of ASEAN’s success. By doing so, Southeast Asia can navigate the complexities of the evolving geopolitical landscape and maintain its focus on promoting stability, peace, and prosperity for all its inhabitants.