India and Pakistan have managed to maintain a delicate balance over one of their most crucial and contentious shared resources — water. Despite ongoing tensions and several wars, the two nations have largely abided by the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark agreement that governs water sharing between them. However, this fragile equilibrium is now under threat, not due to disputes over the contested land of Kashmir, but rather over the flow of rivers and the vital resource of water itself.
As climate change exacerbates water shortages and growing populations put increased pressure on available resources, India is seeking modifications to the 1960 treaty. These demands have triggered a fresh round of diplomatic tensions with Pakistan, threatening to unravel one of the most successful international agreements in water management.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Field Marshal Ayub Khan, was the result of nine years of negotiations facilitated by the World Bank. The treaty aimed to resolve a critical issue of water sharing between the two arch-rivals. It divided the six rivers of the Indus River system, allocating the three Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan, while the three Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) were given to India.
Despite being geographically located in India, about 80% of the water from the Eastern Rivers — approximately 135 Million Acre Feet (MAF) — was allocated to Pakistan, while India retained 33 MAF. Additionally, the treaty allowed both countries to use the rivers allocated to the other for certain purposes, such as agriculture, hydropower, and domestic use.
For decades, the Indus Waters Treaty has been hailed as a remarkable success. It has survived multiple military conflicts, border skirmishes, and periods of diplomatic estrangement, providing a stable framework for the development of irrigation and hydropower projects. The Indus Basin itself supports nearly 300 million people across both countries, underscoring the critical importance of these shared rivers.
Rising Tensions: Climate Change and Population Pressures
As the impacts of climate change become more severe, with erratic rainfall patterns, glacial melt, and frequent droughts, the region’s water resources are becoming more strained. Simultaneously, population growth in both India and Pakistan is driving demand for water to new heights, particularly for agriculture and electricity generation.
India has long been criticized for underutilizing its allocation of the Western Rivers. Despite its right to develop run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects under the treaty, India has harnessed less than 20% of the hydroelectric potential of these rivers. According to the Jammu and Kashmir State Economic Survey of 2017, the Union Territory has the potential to produce 16,475 MW of hydropower, yet only 3,263.46 MW has been developed.
Recognizing the increasing importance of water resources for its growing economy and population, India has accelerated its plans to build more hydroelectric projects. These moves have not gone unnoticed by Pakistan, which views them with suspicion, fearing that India may gain leverage over its water supply. While the projects in question — like the Kishenganga and Ratle dams — are run-of-the-river, meaning they do not store water, Pakistan has raised objections, concerned that India may be able to control the flow of water downstream during critical periods.
India Seeks Treaty Modification
In January 2023, India escalated the issue by sending an official notice to Pakistan through the Permanent Indus Commission, requesting a “modification” of the 64-year-old treaty. This was followed by a more decisive move in August 2023, when New Delhi formally asked for a review and renegotiation of the treaty. This marks the fourth time that India has pushed for changes, signaling a clear shift in its strategy regarding water-sharing with Pakistan.
India’s demands for renegotiation stem from a combination of geopolitical, environmental, and strategic concerns. According to Neeraj Singh Manhas, Special Advisor for the South Parley Policy Initiative in the Republic of Korea, India’s growing need to secure its water resources in light of fluctuating water availability and rising demand has made it imperative to revisit the terms of the treaty.
“India’s move to seek modifications to the Indus Waters Treaty is rooted in the desire to optimize its water resources, especially as climate change alters water availability in the region. The current structure of the treaty does not fully address these new challenges,” says Manhas.
India’s decision to suspend all meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission until Pakistan agrees to talks underscores the seriousness of its demand. However, modifying the treaty is not a straightforward process. The treaty lacks an explicit exit clause, preventing either country from unilaterally withdrawing. Any modifications require mutual consensus, a near-impossible feat given the current state of bilateral relations.
Geopolitical and Environmental Dimensions
At the heart of the dispute are two key hydroelectric projects: the Kishenganga and Ratle projects, both located in the region of Jammu and Kashmir. The Kishenganga project involves diverting the waters of the Kishenganga River, a tributary of the Jhelum, to a hydropower facility in Bandipora, Kashmir. Pakistan has objected to the project, initially taking its concerns to the World Bank, which acted as a mediator in the dispute. While the dam’s design was modified — its height was reduced from 97 meters to 37 meters — Pakistan remained dissatisfied, fearing that the dam could give India the ability to manipulate water flows to its disadvantage.
The 1,000 MW Pakal Dul project and Lower Kulnai have similarly sparked controversy, as has the 624 MW Kiru project. Pakistan’s consistent objections are based on fears that India’s increased control over the flow of the Western Rivers could exacerbate water shortages in Pakistan, particularly during the dry season. India, on the other hand, argues that new technologies allow for more efficient use of water resources, and it insists that the projects conform to the treaty’s terms.
The stakes are high for both nations. Water is not only a critical resource for agriculture and energy generation but also a matter of national security. Pakistan, whose economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, fears that any disruptions in the flow of water from the Western Rivers could have devastating consequences for its food security. For India, the ability to generate hydropower from these rivers is seen as essential for meeting the growing energy needs of its population, particularly in energy-deficient regions like Jammu and Kashmir.
Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty has long been regarded as one of the most resilient examples of international cooperation, surviving multiple conflicts and enduring political hostilities. However, the current standoff over water could place the treaty under unprecedented strain.
Experts believe that renegotiating the treaty could be beneficial for both nations if done constructively. “In terms of avenues for modification, India can push for bilateral negotiations with Pakistan, potentially seeking third-party mediation or arbitration through the World Bank, as the IWT was facilitated by them,” notes Neeraj Singh Manhas. He suggests that diplomatic pressure and a focus on environmental sustainability could help bring both countries to the negotiating table.
Yet, both nations face significant challenges in reaching a new agreement. The political atmosphere in India and Pakistan has hardened in recent years, particularly since the 2016 Uri terror attack, which saw Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declare, “Blood and water cannot flow together.” Since then, Modi’s government has fast-tracked a number of hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir, further stoking tensions with Pakistan.
In 2019, India’s then-Minister for Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari added fuel to the fire by tweeting, “We will divert water from Eastern rivers and supply it to our people in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab.” This rhetoric has raised concerns in Pakistan, which fears that India is gradually moving towards a more aggressive stance on water-sharing.
The current standoff over the Indus Waters Treaty reflects the broader geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. While the treaty has withstood the test of time, the growing demands of climate change, population pressures, and nationalist rhetoric on both sides have made water a highly sensitive issue.
With both nations increasingly unwilling to compromise, the risk of a breakdown in the treaty remains a possibility. Any unilateral action, however, could have severe consequences for regional stability, threatening the livelihoods of millions who depend on the waters of the Indus River system.
Diplomatic efforts, including potential third-party mediation, may be necessary to prevent the escalation of the water dispute into a full-blown crisis. In the meantime, the people of India and Pakistan continue to live under the shadow of a future where water — not just land — could become the flashpoint for conflict between these two nuclear-armed neighbors.
