As China and India continue to strengthen and modernize their military air capabilities, a significant asymmetry in the two nations’ air forces has come into focus. China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) are making considerable strides in air dominance, particularly through their growing fleet of J-20 stealth fighters. With more than 200 J-20s already deployed, China is on course to have close to 1,000 J-20 aircraft by 2035, a time frame that aligns with India’s target for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program.
However, this rapid expansion in Chinese air power leaves India in a challenging position as it works to upgrade the Indian Air Force (IAF). The IAF is currently facing capacity limitations, technological lags, and a slow production rate, exacerbated by outdated fleets and dependency on imports for critical technologies.
China’s focus on modernizing its air fleet has centered on deploying fifth-generation stealth fighters, such as the J-20, developed by Chengdu Aerospace Corporation, and expanding its fourth-generation capabilities. With over 300 J-10C, 350 Shenyang J-11, and 350 J-16 aircraft equipped with long-range, beyond-visual-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles, China has amassed a formidable 1,200 fourth-generation and advanced aircraft. Additionally, China’s investment in ground-attack aircraft, including JH-7, JH-8, and H-6 bombers, has further solidified its strategic edge.
Beyond PLAAF’s tactical expansion, the PLAN’s carriers will likely incorporate the J-35A—a fifth-generation fighter, anticipated to be introduced at China’s upcoming Zhuhai airshow. The J-35A, designed with the potential for export, will likely offer China greater leverage in the global arms market.
Despite its strides, China’s fifth-generation program does face engineering challenges. Achieving a fully effective, low-observable jet engine for the J-20 remains elusive, raising questions about the long-term viability of China’s stealth capabilities. However, China’s reliance on collaborations, as seen with the jet engine technology from Russia and efforts to independently develop engines, signifies a commitment to minimizing these limitations.
In response, India is working to fast-track its fifth-generation fighter capabilities with the AMCA. Recently, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) sanctioned ₹15,000 crore (US$1.8 billion) for AMCA development, aiming for a first flight by 2028 and full operational production by 2035. However, the timeline poses challenges in balancing ambitions with the reality of IAF’s current situation.
The IAF’s sanctioned strength stands at 42 squadrons, but it presently operates with just 31 squadrons, further dwindling with aging aircraft like the MiG-21 slated for decommissioning within the decade. This deficit places immense pressure on the development of the AMCA and the indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) to keep pace with PLAAF capabilities.
While 83 LCA Mk IAs are currently under order, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is expected to deliver them over five years at a conservative estimate of 15 aircraft per year. An additional 97 aircraft await CCS approval, likely leading to HAL’s production commitment reaching 180 aircraft by 2035. This output, however, places substantial strain on India’s defense manufacturing capacity and may delay the roll-out of the more advanced LCA Mk II—pushing full-scale modernization further into the future.
India’s reliance on imported components, particularly in crucial areas like aero-engines, radar systems, and electronic warfare (EW) technology, has created both operational and strategic risks. Integrating various imported technologies into the LCA Mk I and Mk II has led to prolonged development cycles, while components such as General Electric’s engines have faced delays due to geopolitical and supply-chain constraints. This reliance on external vendors often slows modernization efforts, leading to cost overruns and missed deadlines.
India’s Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), HAL, and private industry partners are working on strengthening domestic capabilities, but significant hurdles remain. Developing fifth-generation fighter technology requires substantial advances in software integration, airframe design, and weapons systems. The F-35 program by Lockheed Martin, for instance, took 26 years to reach full production capability. For India, a similar time horizon may mean that achieving self-reliance could extend well into the next decade.
Recent comments from Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh on the 92nd anniversary of the IAF underscore the urgency of bridging the technology gap with China. “We have lagged behind China in technology and production rates of defense equipment,” he noted, underscoring a widening disparity between Indian and Chinese aerospace capabilities.
The modernization of IAF has proceeded slowly, and as legacy fleets retire, it becomes imperative to address the widening capability gap. For example, the Sukhoi Su-30MKI, Rafale, and LCA Tejas remain the backbones of IAF’s current lineup, with limited numbers of advanced aircraft to supplement older fleets. Without further acquisition, these will eventually be insufficient against the threats posed by China’s increasingly advanced air capabilities.
India’s defense focus has remained largely centered on maintaining stability along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), where the past four years have seen tension with China’s territorial assertions. However, recent disengagement efforts in Ladakh’s Depsang and Demchok sectors have contributed to a near-term stabilization along the LAC.
Despite these positive diplomatic movements, China’s broader military expansion continues to be a significant concern. India’s defense modernization must account not only for present standoffs but also for the long-term strategic balance in the region, particularly as China’s influence extends globally.
Lessons from the Israeli Air Force (IAF) reveal the importance of early adoption of high technology, integration, and efficient procurement processes. Israel has invested extensively in modernizing its air capabilities, with its F-35s, advanced EW systems, and long-range missiles providing it a decisive edge. Recent air operations, such as Israel’s “Days of Repentance,” showcase the power of air dominance achieved through intelligence, technology, and force multipliers like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and refueling aircraft.
Israeli tactics highlight the role of modern fighter fleets and advanced air defenses in maintaining airspace control. Israel’s high investment in missiles and drones for air-to-ground capabilities further underscores the need for a multi-faceted approach to air superiority, providing India with a model of balanced investments in quantity and quality.
Given the magnitude of technological advancements required, India’s defense agencies, including DRDO, HAL, and DPSUs, will need to forge international partnerships while enhancing indigenous manufacturing. Collaborations with friendly nations could enable India to develop fifth-generation technologies while pursuing time-bound delivery of domestic aircraft.
Such partnerships may also enable critical technology transfers in areas like jet engines and radar systems, allowing India to leapfrog current limitations. Key to this approach is the timely initiation of projects like the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) acquisition, which, if streamlined with technology transfers, could substantially offset delays in AMCA and LCA Mk II programs.
To keep up with evolving air combat technologies, India must also adopt an aggressive stance toward developing force multipliers such as early warning systems, air-to-air refueling platforms, and advanced electronic warfare equipment. With a more integrated defense manufacturing ecosystem, India’s goal of self-reliance in defense technology could materialize within a realistic time frame.
The IAF’s modernization hinges on achieving a pragmatic balance between quantity and technological quality. HAL’s production of LCA Mk IA and Mk II, alongside DRDO’s AMCA program, must focus on delivering cutting-edge capabilities on schedule, with an emphasis on scalability and risk management. Additionally, exploring export markets for LCA variants could expand production viability and attract investment into India’s defense industry.
Focusing on accelerated timelines, indigenous production, and targeted investments in critical areas, such as long-range missiles and early warning systems, will be crucial for achieving self-reliance. Implementing a Make in India policy for MRFA acquisitions, completing timely LCA Mk IA production, and pursuing collaborative development initiatives will drive the IAF’s ability to address modern threats and achieve parity with regional adversaries.
