India has intensified diplomatic and military pressure on Russia, demanding a clear and credible delivery schedule for the remaining two squadrons of the S-400 Triumf air defence system. The escalating push comes amid mounting delays in the $5.43 billion deal signed in 2018—delays now threatening a planned follow-on purchase worth an additional $1.1 billion.
According to senior officials within India’s defence establishment, Moscow’s slow progress has become a strategic concern. Russia’s defence industry remains heavily strained by its ongoing military operations in Ukraine, while Western sanctions have disrupted crucial supply chains, limiting the country’s ability to meet export commitments. As a result, the delivery of key components for the S-400 system has been repeatedly postponed.
Under the original agreement, India was to receive five S-400 regiments—one of the world’s most advanced long-range surface-to-air missile systems, capable of targeting aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones at ranges up to 400 km. Three regiments have already been delivered and deployed at critical locations along India’s northern and western borders. These include areas facing China, where the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been increasingly active with advanced fighters like the J-20 stealth aircraft.
The remaining two regiments, however, are running significantly behind schedule. Initially slated for induction by 2024, India now expects the fourth regiment to arrive no earlier than 2026, with the fifth not before 2027. These new timelines—still unofficial—have raised alarms in New Delhi.
An Indian Air Force (IAF) officer, speaking anonymously, warned that the delay is creating “operational vulnerabilities” as India continues to prepare for a possible two-front conflict scenario involving both China and Pakistan. “These systems are not just additions to the inventory—they cover critical gaps,” the officer noted.
During Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s recent visit to Moscow, Indian officials reportedly pushed Russia’s state-run arms exporter Rosoboronexport for more transparency on its production capacity and delivery commitments. India is considering the acquisition of two or three additional S-400 regiments, but has made it clear that no new contract will be signed unless Russia can honor the timelines of the existing deal.
A senior Ministry of Defence (MoD) official described the situation as a “make-or-break moment” for future S-400 procurement. “If Moscow cannot assure us of realistic delivery schedules, we will be forced to reconsider our options,” the official said.
India’s reassessment of its procurement roadmap includes several alternatives should Russia fail to commit to timely deliveries. Among these are expanding the deployment of the Indo-Israeli Barak-8 medium-range surface-to-air missile system, a cornerstone of India’s naval and land-based air defence grid. Another option is ramping up production of the indigenous Akash-NG (New Generation) missile system, which offers improved range, accuracy, and multi-target engagement capabilities.
Foreign policy analysts note that this situation illustrates India’s growing determination to diversify its defence supply chain—a shift accelerated by geopolitical uncertainties and Russia’s battlefield commitments. While India remains one of Russia’s largest defence customers, New Delhi has gradually increased its tilt toward self-reliance and partnerships with Western and regional powers.
Russia’s ability to deliver the remaining S-400 units is hindered by several factors. The war in Ukraine has absorbed much of the country’s defence production capacity, particularly in the missile and radar systems sectors. Components needed for the S-400 are being redirected to replenish Russian military stockpiles, leading to prolonged export delays.
Furthermore, international sanctions—especially those imposed under the U.S. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA)—have restricted Russia’s access to critical semiconductors, electronics, and financial channels, complicating production timelines.
Despite the delay, Defence Minister Singh has reiterated that expanding India’s S-400 inventory remains a “priority.” However, he also emphasized India’s commitment to strengthening indigenous capabilities.
At the core of this long-term strategy is Project Kusha, an ambitious Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) program aimed at creating a homegrown long-range air defence system with capabilities comparable to the S-400. The system is expected to feature multi-layered interceptors, long-range surveillance radars, and advanced command-and-control systems. Initial deployment is projected for 2028–2030.
Analysts believe the success of Project Kusha could significantly reduce India’s dependence on Russian air defence systems within the next decade. For now, however, India continues to view the S-400 as essential to countering the sophisticated airpower capabilities of China and Pakistan.
As New Delhi awaits Moscow’s revised delivery schedule, the next few months may determine the trajectory of future India–Russia defence cooperation. If Russia fails to deliver firm timelines, India may strengthen its shift toward indigenous systems and explore alternative partnerships.
