The recent announcement of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Russia for a summit meeting with President Vladimir Putin marks a significant moment in India-Russia relations. This visit, expected to take place on July 8-9, 2024, underscores New Delhi’s commitment to maintaining a robust relationship with Moscow amidst evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Prime Minister Modi’s last visit to Russia was in 2019 when he attended the Far Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. He last met President Putin in 2022 during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Samarkand. However, the traditional annual summit meeting between the leaders of the two countries was notably skipped in 2022 and 2023, highlighting a brief pause in high-level engagements.

The timing of Modi’s visit to Moscow is significant as it will be his first bilateral visit since securing a third term in office. Historically, Modi’s initial visits after assuming office have been to neighboring countries like Bhutan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, making this visit to Russia particularly noteworthy.

This visit follows the resolution of trade settlement difficulties between India and Russia. Initially, Russia requested India to pay for its oil in Yuan, but has since agreed to accept UAE Dirham instead. Additionally, Russia has agreed to invest the $8 billion worth of Indian Rupees accumulated in Indian banks in Indian companies and to purchase more electronic goods, pharmaceuticals, agricultural tools, and textiles from India.

Defense Relations Back on Track

One of the most critical aspects of the upcoming summit between Modi and Putin is the potential revival of defense cooperation, particularly the joint development of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA). Reports indicate that the summit agenda includes a logistics supply agreement to bolster military cooperation, restarting FGFA discussions, and collaboration on nuclear power.

The decision to restart joint FGFA development is logical for several reasons. The FGFA was initially proposed to be developed using Russia’s Su-57 as a baseline. However, the Indian Air Force (IAF) had reservations about the aircraft’s supercruise capability and all-around stealth, as well as a preference for a twin-seat fighter. Consequently, India suspended its participation in the FGFA project but left the door open for future acquisition.

Since India put its FGFA participation on hold, Russia has addressed many of the shortcomings cited by the IAF during the development and operational testing of the Su-57. The latest Su-57 variants feature the AL-51 Stage-2 engines, which facilitate supercruise capabilities with a significant increase in engine thrust. The Stage 2 engine improves the fighter’s stealth with a serrated exhaust nozzle, making it harder for infrared and radar sensors to detect and track.

Furthermore, Russia is already developing a twin-seat variant of the Su-57 for training and loyal wingman Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) operations. These advancements suggest that the Su-57 now meets and potentially exceeds IAF expectations.

Strategic Implications

The revival of the FGFA project is crucial for India, given the stealth fighter buildup by its adversaries, China and Pakistan. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is rapidly increasing its Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter bomber inventory, and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) plans to acquire the Chinese Shenyang J-31 stealth fighter in large numbers.

Reports indicate that the PLAAF added over 50 J-20 stealth fighters to its inventory between August 2022 and November 2023, with a production rate that could reach 100 aircraft per year in 2023 and stabilize at 120 aircraft in 2025. In comparison, the annual production rate for the Lockheed Martin F-35 is 156 aircraft, but Lockheed’s production caters to the global market, whereas Chengdu serves only the PLAAF.

PAF’s Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu has stated that the foundation for acquiring the J-31 stealth fighter aircraft has been laid, with the J-31 set to join the PAF’s fleet in the near future. Shenyang Aircraft Corporation has completed the development of the J-31, and a customized variant for the PAF is likely under development.

By 2030, the PLAAF could field 500 J-20 stealth fighter bombers, and the PAF could deploy around 100 J-31 stealth fighters. In contrast, the IAF currently has no stealth fighters in its inventory, creating a significant operational gap that could tempt adversaries into adventurism.

The revival of the FGFA project offers a viable solution for India to bridge this emerging operational gap. Russia’s commitment to supporting India’s desire for localized defense production and sharing defense technology is a strategic advantage. Russian systems are known for their cost-effectiveness, and local production of an operationally proven stealth fighter would significantly boost India’s military-industrial complex and eliminate logistical bottlenecks associated with dealing with foreign vendors.

Strategic and Technological Benefits

India’s decision to restart the FGFA project aligns with its broader strategic goals and technological aspirations. The development of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft in collaboration with Russia offers several benefits:

Enhanced Air Superiority: The inclusion of advanced stealth fighters like the Su-57 in the IAF’s inventory would enhance India’s air superiority capabilities, deterring potential adversaries and maintaining a strategic balance in the region.
Technological Leap: Collaboration on the FGFA project would provide India access to cutting-edge technologies, boosting its indigenous defense manufacturing capabilities and reducing dependence on foreign suppliers.
Operational Synergy: Joint development and production of the FGFA would facilitate greater operational synergy between Indian and Russian defense forces, strengthening bilateral defense cooperation.
Economic Impetus: The investment of accumulated Indian Rupees by Russia into Indian companies and the purchase of Indian goods would stimulate the Indian economy, creating job opportunities and promoting technological innovation.
Geopolitical Leverage: Strengthening defense ties with Russia would provide India with greater geopolitical leverage, ensuring a multipolar world order and mitigating the influence of other global powers.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia for a summit meeting with President Putin signifies a renewed commitment to bolstering India-Russia relations. The potential revival of the FGFA project, using the advanced Su-57 as a baseline, represents a strategic move to address the operational gap in the IAF’s capabilities and counter the stealth fighter buildup by China and Pakistan.

The technological advancements in the Su-57, coupled with Russia’s willingness to support India’s localized defense production, present a compelling case for India to pursue the joint development of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft. This collaboration would not only enhance India’s defense capabilities but also strengthen its position as a key player in the global strategic landscape.

As the world watches the outcome of the Modi-Putin summit, the potential discussions on stealth fighters for the IAF underscore the enduring significance of the India-Russia partnership in shaping the future of global security and defense cooperation.