The fallout from the most recent India-Pakistan border conflict has spiraled far beyond the Line of Control. Following a fragile ceasefire after India’s bold Operation Sindoor, geopolitical tremors have rocked South Asia and the broader Islamic world. Central to this turbulence is the growing alliance between Pakistan and Turkey—a partnership now being openly challenged by India in an increasingly multipolar world.
In the latest diplomatic firestorm, India has responded with forceful economic and political retaliation after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed unwavering solidarity with Pakistan. While Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Erdogan for his support in the aftermath of deadly cross-border skirmishes, India saw Ankara’s stance not just as provocative—but as a betrayal.
The close relationship between Pakistan and Turkey is not new. Framed in language of “brotherhood,” their alliance is rooted in shared Islamic identity and bolstered by mutual geopolitical aspirations. Over the last decade, both countries have moved to expand military and intelligence cooperation. Azerbaijan has increasingly joined this axis, creating a strategic tripartite alliance that positions itself as a vanguard of pan-Islamic solidarity.
Turkey’s support for Pakistan in the most recent flare-up with India has taken that alliance into uncharted territory. What began as verbal support soon bled into military collaboration, according to Indian intelligence sources. India claims Pakistan employed Turkish-made drones—Bayraktar TB2s, YIHA surveillance drones, and Songar kamikaze units—in targeted strikes against Indian installations and border posts.
Notably, over 350 Turkish-origin drones were reportedly used in strikes on Indian cities during Operation Sindoor. Worse still, Turkey allegedly dispatched military operators to support drone operations, two of whom were killed by an Indian retaliatory strike, according to India Today TV. Although Ankara denied sending troops or military hardware, circumstantial evidence and flight records indicating a Turkish C-130E Hercules landing in Karachi during the conflict have only deepened suspicions.
For India, this is more than diplomatic friction—it is a red line crossed.
India’s reaction has been swift, broad, and strategic.
Social media has erupted with criticism of Turkey’s “betrayal,” especially in light of India’s humanitarian aid during Turkey’s 2023 earthquake under Operation Dost. The contrast is stark: where India extended solidarity during Turkey’s hour of need, Ankara has now allegedly armed India’s adversary.
The Indian government made its displeasure known through action. On May 14, New Delhi blocked access to the X (formerly Twitter) account of TRT World, Turkey’s state-run broadcaster, accusing it of spreading misinformation and pro-Pakistani propaganda. TRT World was lumped in with China’s Global Times—another platform accused of anti-India narratives. Although the ban was later lifted, the symbolic message was clear: India is not turning a blind eye.
One day later, India revoked the security clearance of Celebi Airport Services India, a subsidiary of Turkey’s Celebi Aviation Holding, citing national security concerns. The move directly impacted operations at nine major Indian airports and sent Celebi’s shares tumbling. The company responded by suing the Indian government, stating in court that the grounds for revocation were “vague” and lacked transparency. The legal battle may drag on, but the financial and reputational damage has been immediate.
India’s approach has focused on targeted economic disruption, particularly in sectors where Turkey stands to lose most.
On May 16, over 125 Indian business leaders and trade bodies gathered under the banner of the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) and declared a complete boycott of Turkish and Azerbaijani products and services. The message was nationalistic, resolute, and coordinated.
The boycott affects:
- Imports & Exports: All commercial ties are under review.
- Marble Trade: India imports 70% of its marble from Turkey (worth Rs 2,500–3,000 crore). Udaipur’s marble traders have already halted trade and are ramping up domestic supply chains.
- Travel & Tourism: Indian travel agencies have suspended trips to Turkey. EaseMyTrip reported a 22% cancellation rate, while other agencies removed Turkey from their platforms entirely.
- Cultural Engagement: Indian filmmakers are being encouraged to avoid shooting in Turkey or Azerbaijan.
- Education: Academic institutions are cutting ties with Turkish and Pakistani counterparts, with AIU issuing a formal advisory to halt collaborations on national security grounds.
Tourism is a vital pillar of the Turkish economy, contributing over $61 billion in 2024—about 12% of GDP. Indian tourists make up a significant chunk of that revenue. In 2024, 3.3 lakh Indians visited Turkey, generating nearly $500 million in economic activity.
That stream now faces a dam. Social media campaigns and travel advisories have intensified, urging Indians to redirect their travel dollars. Greek tourism promoters have seized the opportunity. Journalists like Paul Antonopoulous are making compelling arguments to attract Indian travelers, pointing to Greece’s consistent diplomatic support for India on global platforms like the UN and NSG.
“Greece has never sided against India. Turkey just did,” said one travel operator from Delhi, echoing a sentiment gaining traction.
In raw numbers, Turkey accounts for a relatively modest 0.5% of India’s total imports. Yet, the absolute figures are significant: $2.84 billion in imports and $5.2 billion in Indian exports to Turkey between April 2024 and February 2025.
If Indian trade leaders succeed in sustaining the boycott, Turkey could see a drop of up to 15% in its trade with India. Sanjay Kathuria from the Centre for Social and Economic Progress estimates losses in the range of $1.5 billion, depending on the duration and scope of the boycott.
For India, the damage is manageable. For Turkey, already grappling with recessionary headwinds, inflation nearing 30%, and political instability, this could be another straw on a heavily burdened camel’s back.
Turkey entered a technical recession in 2024, with GDP growth slowing to 3.2%. Projections for 2025 aren’t promising, hovering between 2.6–3.1%. Inflation is expected to remain stubbornly high, and public discontent has grown following the arrest of Istanbul’s opposition-backed mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu. The Turkish lira hit a record low of 42 to the dollar in March 2025, further eroding consumer purchasing power.
Any large-scale disruption to trade, especially from partners like India, will exacerbate Turkey’s economic fragility.
What India is doing isn’t just reactionary—it’s a calculated reconfiguration of alliances. The message is twofold: Don’t take India’s goodwill for granted. And if you pick sides, be prepared for consequences.
By halting academic and cultural exchanges, blocking media access, disrupting trade, and throttling tourism, New Delhi is sending a geopolitical warning not just to Ankara, but to the broader international community: neutrality in South Asia’s conflicts is no longer an option.
The involvement of Azerbaijan, a minor but vocal supporter of Pakistan, adds another layer. While the country’s trade footprint in India is smaller than Turkey’s, it now finds itself caught in the crosshairs. Indian universities, including the prominent Lovely Professional University (LPU), have terminated MoUs with Azerbaijani institutions. This symbolic snub compounds the damage to the Ankara-Islamabad-Baku triangle.
Despite mounting pressure, Turkish President Erdogan is doubling down. In a public message to Shehbaz Sharif, Erdogan reaffirmed his country’s loyalty: “As in the past, we will continue to stand by you in good times and bad in the future.” The statement—unsurprising to analysts familiar with Erdogan’s worldview—has further cemented Turkey’s stance in India’s eyes as hostile.
But Turkey’s strategic calculus might come at a steep price. While Erdogan may be positioning himself as a leader in the Muslim world, the gamble risks economic self-sabotage—especially when antagonizing rising powers like India, whose diplomatic and trade footprint is expanding by the day.
What started as a retaliatory military operation against terrorism has triggered a broader reconfiguration of international alignments. India’s evolving stance toward Turkey reflects a more assertive, less forgiving foreign policy approach—one that merges hard power with economic and diplomatic instruments of influence.
If Ankara underestimates the long-term costs of alienating New Delhi, it may find its strategic “brotherhood” with Pakistan and Azerbaijan increasingly expensive. Meanwhile, for India, this episode marks a coming-of-age moment on the world stage—where global friendships are earned, and betrayals are met with consequences.
