In recent years, subtle yet significant changes in India’s nuclear posture have been revealed through social media posts and satellite imagery analysis, highlighting the country’s strategic advancements. These developments, particularly in its naval capabilities, indicate that India is inching closer to realizing the sea leg of its nuclear deterrence by acquiring submarine-launched nuclear missile capabilities. The implications of these changes, exploring how India’s naval nuclear deterrence is evolving and the broader strategic context surrounding it.
In an age where information is often gleaned from unconventional sources, a series of yoga-related Instagram posts from the Indian Navy’s official account during a port visit to Seychelles in October 2022 offered an unexpected insight into India’s nuclear capabilities. These posts, combined with satellite imagery and expert analysis, have led to the conclusion that India has quietly retired its oldest naval nuclear-capable missile system, the Dhanush, which was once the backbone of its maritime nuclear deterrence.
The Dhanush missile, a ship-launched variant of the Prithvi missile family, was a short-range ballistic missile (ShLBM) designed to be deployed on Sukanya-class offshore patrol vessels. The missile, single-stage and liquid-fueled, had the capability to carry both nuclear and conventional payloads. It was primarily deployed on INS Subhadra and INS Suvarna, two patrol vessels specifically modified for this purpose.
However, the recent analysis by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) indicates that these vessels have undergone modifications that render them incapable of launching Dhanush missiles. Satellite images from April 2018 show the removal of missile stabilizer platforms on the aft decks of these ships, which have since been repainted and likely converted for use as helipads. The conclusion drawn from this is clear: India has phased out the Dhanush missile system, a move that signals a shift towards more advanced and survivable nuclear deterrent capabilities.
The retirement of the Dhanush missile system marks a pivotal moment in India’s strategic evolution. The Dhanush system, while innovative at its inception, posed significant operational challenges. Its short range required the launching vessels to operate perilously close to enemy shores, making them highly vulnerable to attacks. Moreover, being a liquid-fueled missile, Dhanush needed to be fueled just before launch, a process that added to the risks during a potential conflict scenario.
With the removal of the Dhanush system, India is likely focusing on the deployment of more advanced submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), which offer greater range, survivability, and operational flexibility. This shift is crucial for India as it seeks to bolster its second-strike capability, a cornerstone of its nuclear doctrine based on the principle of ‘No First Use’.
Evolution of India’s Naval Nuclear Deterrence
India’s journey towards a credible and survivable nuclear triad has been long and complex. The sea leg of this triad has always been considered the most challenging due to the sophisticated technology required for submarine-launched missiles. However, India has made significant strides in this area, particularly with the development of the Arihant-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).
The INS Arihant, India’s first indigenous SSBN, was launched in 2009 and commissioned in 2016. It was a significant achievement for India, marking the country’s entry into the exclusive club of nations capable of deploying a nuclear triad. However, the capabilities of the Arihant have been somewhat limited by the short range of its primary SLBM, the K-15 missile, which has a range of just 750 kilometers—insufficient to target China from the relative safety of the Bay of Bengal.
Recognizing this limitation, India has been working on developing longer-range SLBMs. The K-4 missile, with a range of 3,500 kilometers, represents a significant step forward in this regard. The successful test-firing of the K-4 missile from an underwater platform in 2023 demonstrated India’s growing capabilities in submarine-launched nuclear weapons. The K-4 is expected to be inducted into service aboard the Arihant-class submarines, significantly enhancing their strategic reach and deterrence capability.
The transition from the Dhanush missile system to a more robust submarine-launched missile capability is not just about technological advancement; it is also about strategic imperatives. In a region as geopolitically volatile as South Asia, the need for a credible and survivable second-strike capability cannot be overstated. The development of longer-range SLBMs, such as the K-4, and future missiles like the K-5 and K-6, which are expected to have ranges of up to 6,000 kilometers, will provide India with the ability to maintain a credible deterrent even in the face of an overwhelming first strike.
This shift towards a submarine-based deterrent is particularly important given the increasing strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region. China, with its growing fleet of SSBNs and SLBMs with ranges exceeding 5,000 kilometers, poses a significant challenge to India. By advancing its own SLBM capabilities, India is not only enhancing its deterrence against China but also ensuring that it remains a formidable player in the region’s evolving security landscape.
INS Arihant and Future SSBNs
INS Arihant, while a significant achievement, is only the beginning of India’s journey towards a fully operational sea-based deterrent. The Arihant-class submarines, including the recently launched S-4 and the upcoming S-4* and S-5, are expected to play a crucial role in this regard. The S-4, launched in 2021, is expected to carry twice the number of SLBMs as the earlier Arihant-class submarines, significantly enhancing India’s strike capabilities.
The addition of these submarines to India’s fleet will provide the country with the ability to maintain a continuous at-sea deterrent, a critical requirement for a credible second-strike capability. The operationalization of these submarines, combined with the deployment of longer-range SLBMs, will ensure that India can maintain a credible nuclear deterrent under all circumstances, thus enhancing its strategic stability.
Another significant development in India’s nuclear capabilities is the successful test-firing of the Agni-V missile with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology in March 2024. This advancement places India in the exclusive club of nations capable of deploying MIRV technology, which allows a single missile to carry multiple warheads, each capable of striking different targets independently.
MIRV technology represents a quantum leap in strategic capabilities. By enabling a single missile to target multiple locations, MIRVs significantly enhance the effectiveness of a nuclear strike while complicating the enemy’s defensive strategies. This technology also increases the survivability of India’s nuclear forces by making it more difficult for an adversary to intercept and neutralize all incoming warheads.
The integration of MIRV technology with India’s long-range ballistic missiles, including those launched from submarines, will further enhance the country’s deterrence capabilities. This is particularly important in the context of China, which has developed advanced missile defense systems. By deploying MIRV-equipped missiles, India can ensure that its nuclear deterrent remains credible even in the face of sophisticated defensive measures by its adversaries.
The advancements in India’s nuclear capabilities, particularly in the naval domain, have significant implications for regional stability. As India strengthens its sea-based deterrent, it is likely to influence the strategic calculations of its neighbors, particularly China and Pakistan.
For China, India’s growing SLBM capabilities represent a new challenge that could alter the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific region. While China has a more advanced and larger SSBN fleet, India’s advancements suggest that it is rapidly closing the gap. This could lead to a strategic recalibration by China, potentially spurring further developments in its own nuclear forces.
For Pakistan, India’s advancements in SLBMs and MIRV technology could be seen as a significant escalation. Pakistan has traditionally relied on its land-based ballistic missiles and tactical nuclear weapons as a counter to India’s conventional superiority. However, India’s move towards a more credible and survivable nuclear deterrent could compel Pakistan to rethink its own nuclear posture, potentially leading to an arms race in the region.
India’s quiet retirement of the Dhanush missile system and its ongoing development of advanced submarine-launched ballistic missiles and MIRV technology signal a significant shift in its nuclear posture. These advancements are not merely technological; they reflect a broader strategic imperative to enhance India’s nuclear deterrence in an increasingly volatile regional security environment.
As India continues to develop and deploy more advanced SSBNs and SLBMs, it will not only enhance its second-strike capability but also contribute to the overall strategic stability in the region. However, these developments also underscore the need for careful management of nuclear risks, particularly in a region where multiple nuclear-armed states have historically had fraught relations.
In the coming years, India’s strategic trajectory will likely be shaped by its ability to balance the demands of deterrence with the imperatives of stability. As it navigates this complex landscape, the evolution of its naval nuclear capabilities will remain a key indicator of its broader strategic goals and its role in the regional security architecture.
