The 1999 Kargil conflict revealed significant gaps in India’s surveillance capabilities, particularly in its inability to monitor enemy positions accurately and in real-time. This deficiency delayed vital information gathering, impacting the swift identification of enemy forces entrenched in key positions along the Line of Control (LoC). It was a young Indian Air Force (IAF) pilot who, in a desperate measure, strapped a Handycam onto his MiG-21 to film enemy locations. His innovation provided crucial footage that led to the precise targeting of enemy positions.
Fast forward 25 years, and India is taking decisive steps to avoid a repeat of such surveillance inadequacies. In October 2024, the Government of India approved two key initiatives that are set to dramatically enhance the nation’s strategic surveillance capabilities: the procurement of advanced Predator Drones from the United States and the Space-Based Surveillance III (SBS-III) project. Both decisions mark critical milestones in India’s pursuit of comprehensive security in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.
In a landmark move, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) greenlit the acquisition of 31 MQ-9B weaponized Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) under the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. This decision, culminating in a deal worth approximately USD 4 billion, will equip the Indian Army, Navy, and Air Force with cutting-edge surveillance and strike capabilities, essential for modern warfare and intelligence gathering.
The deal, signed on October 15, 2024, is a crucial chapter in India’s long-debated pursuit of high-end drones to boost its aerial surveillance. The MQ-9B, commonly known as the Sky Guardian (for land) and Sea Guardian (for maritime operations), is an advanced variant of the MQ-9A Reaper, which gained prominence during U.S. military operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan.
What sets the MQ-9B apart is its versatility. Capable of operating at altitudes over 40,000 feet for more than 40 continuous hours, the drone combines Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities with formidable strike potential. It can carry a range of weaponry, including Hellfire air-to-ground missiles, laser-guided bombs, and glide bombs. This dual capability of ISR and precision strikes makes it an asset in both conventional and asymmetric warfare. Importantly, the Indian Air Force (IAF) already has experience with Hellfire missiles, having equipped its Apache attack helicopters with them in the past.
The MQ-9B’s technical specifications are impressive. With a wingspan of 24 meters and a length of 11.7 meters, it is almost as large as a conventional fighter jet. Its open-architecture design allows for easy upgrades and integration with various payloads, ensuring it remains future-proof. The drones will provide India with persistent ISR capability, essential for monitoring vast and diverse terrains—ranging from deserts and oceans to the rugged Himalayas.
India’s topography demands multi-layered surveillance capabilities. The 2020 standoff with China in Eastern Ladakh highlighted the limitations of the medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) UAVs that India currently possesses. The Heron UAVs, procured from Israel, struggled to offer sufficient visibility in the mountainous regions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In contrast, China’s fleet of High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE) UAVs, including the Wing Loong and Caihong-5 (CH-5), provided it with superior continuous surveillance over extended distances and periods. The acquisition of the MQ-9B will help bridge this gap, giving India the ability to conduct high-altitude surveillance across its borders.
In tandem with acquiring advanced drones, the Government of India has approved the Space-Based Surveillance III (SBS-III) project. Worth ₹26,968 crore (approximately USD 3.1 billion), SBS-III is set to launch 52 satellites in various orbits over the next five years. The initiative represents a significant enhancement to India’s existing space-based surveillance capabilities, which, despite progress, are still inadequate for the country’s growing strategic needs.
The SBS-III project will see 21 satellites produced and launched by ISRO, while 31 will be developed by private companies, marking an important collaboration between government space agencies and the private sector. The satellites will be deployed in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO), creating a comprehensive, persistent surveillance network. This constellation of satellites will have dual-use capabilities, contributing to both military and civilian applications, including disaster management, environmental monitoring, and infrastructure development.
A key feature of SBS-III is its integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for faster processing and tagging of geospatial intelligence. The system will incorporate a unique triggering mechanism: if a satellite in GEO detects unusual activity, it can prompt a LEO satellite to zoom in for a more detailed observation. This multi-layered approach ensures that India’s armed forces will have real-time, high-resolution intelligence from space, closing critical gaps that arise from relying solely on aerial platforms.
The launch of these satellites will allow India to monitor key areas of strategic interest, including its vast land borders, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and the broader Indo-Pacific. Satellites in this constellation will provide crucial intelligence on infrastructure development, troop movements, and missile launches, enabling India to stay ahead of potential adversaries. They will also enhance maritime surveillance, helping to track naval movements, including submarines and surface ships, in the IOR—a region where China’s growing presence has been a cause for concern.
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) have become a linchpin of modern military strategy. Timely and accurate ISR inputs allow military leaders to make informed decisions about force deployments, infrastructure targeting, and capability assessments. The combination of Predator drones and space-based surveillance platforms will significantly boost India’s ISR capabilities across multiple domains.
India already operates several aerial ISR platforms, including the Israeli-made Searcher and Heron UAVs, and is in the process of acquiring the Drishti 10 Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAVs, based on the Hermes 900 platform from Elbit, Israel. Indigenous companies have also entered the UAV market, providing tactical UAVs for specific missions. However, the addition of the MQ-9B will bring HALE capability to the Indian armed forces, a critical upgrade that has been missing in India’s ISR toolkit.
The SBS-III satellites will complement aerial ISR platforms by providing continuous coverage of regions beyond the reach of UAVs. Satellites are immune to airspace restrictions and weather conditions, ensuring that critical areas remain under constant observation. Moreover, the dual-use nature of these satellites allows the military to economize resources, as civilian agencies can also benefit from their capabilities.
Both the Predator drones and the SBS-III project have been in the works for several years. Their approval marks a major step forward in addressing the surveillance shortfalls highlighted by previous conflicts, such as Kargil, and more recently, the Eastern Ladakh standoff. Together, they represent a robust, multi-layered approach to surveillance, covering everything from tactical, battlefield ISR to strategic, long-range monitoring of adversarial activities.
India’s decision to acquire the MQ-9B drones and launch 52 satellites under the SBS-III project sends a clear message to the region. These moves signal India’s intent to enhance its military posture and intelligence gathering capabilities in response to the evolving security environment in South Asia.
China’s formidable UAV fleet, including the CH-5, Wing Loong, and Xianglong, has given it a distinct advantage in regional surveillance and reconnaissance. Coupled with its burgeoning space-based capabilities, China has been able to maintain an upper hand in ISR. Pakistan, too, has benefited from Chinese UAV technology, significantly expanding its own capabilities. By acquiring the MQ-9B and expanding its satellite network, India is signaling its determination to close this gap and counter any potential threats along its borders.
Moreover, these developments will improve India’s monitoring of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a project that has significant security implications for India. Enhanced surveillance capabilities will allow India to keep a closer watch on infrastructure developments and military movements in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and along the strategically important Karakoram Highway.
The acquisition of 31 Predator drones and the launch of 52 satellites under the SBS-III project represent a quantum leap for India’s defense capabilities. These programs will enhance the nation’s ability to monitor and respond to threats across its borders, both on land and at sea. More importantly, they will enable India to maintain persistent surveillance over critical regions, ensuring that no adversarial movements go unnoticed.
India should aim to integrate indigenous technologies into these platforms to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and ensure greater self-sufficiency. The Predator drones, for example, could be outfitted with Indian-made weapons and sensors in the future, further enhancing their utility for the country’s armed forces.
Together, these two initiatives will provide the foundation for a robust ISR ecosystem that will serve India well in the years to come, both in terms of national security and regional stability. The Kargil conflict may have exposed India’s surveillance shortcomings, but 25 years later, the country is taking concrete steps to ensure that it is never caught off-guard again.
