In a rapidly shifting security environment marked by escalating tensions with China and Pakistan, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is undertaking a high-stakes evaluation for the urgent acquisition of two to three squadrons of fifth-generation fighter aircraft from foreign partners. This unprecedented move could see India inducting between 40 and 60 stealth fighters, marking one of the most significant short-term upgrades to its combat airpower in decades.
The IAF’s internal assessment, delivered in a classified presentation to India’s top political and defense leadership, warns of a widening capability gap as neighboring adversaries advance toward sixth-generation systems and prepare fifth-generation platforms for deployment. In response, a high-level committee chaired by Defence Secretary RK Singh has formally recommended the immediate procurement of operational fifth-generation fighters to ensure both strategic deterrence and frontline readiness.
Tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China and the western border with Pakistan have fundamentally altered India’s defense calculus. Intelligence reports indicate that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is not only expanding its fleet of Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragons—China’s stealth twin-engine fighters—but is also testing next-generation capabilities such as AI-enabled mission autonomy, thrust-vectoring control, and networked battlefield coordination.
Even more concerning is the potential transfer of China’s Shenyang J-35A—a carrier-capable fifth-generation stealth jet—to the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). The J-35A, which features AESA radar, internal weapons bays, and low observable coatings, could provide Pakistan with its first true stealth capability, drastically altering the air balance in the region.
For the IAF, the possibility of facing fifth-generation platforms on two fronts—without comparable indigenous capabilities—has triggered a strategic rethink.
India’s homegrown Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project, led by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) under DRDO, remains a long-term priority. However, despite entering wind tunnel testing and advanced prototyping, the AMCA is unlikely to enter serial production before the early 2030s.
While the AMCA holds the promise of sovereign stealth capabilities, the IAF has clearly stated it cannot afford to wait. The need to bridge the “stealth gap” in the interim has pushed policymakers to explore foreign fifth-generation options, with the procurement expected to proceed under a government-to-government (G2G) model to bypass delays inherent in traditional tendering.
F-35 Lightning II or Su-57 Felon
India’s fifth-generation fighter choice is likely to be narrowed down to two primary contenders:
Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II (USA)
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Combat Proven: Over 1,000 aircraft delivered worldwide; extensive operational record in NATO and Indo-Pacific.
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Technology Suite: Sensor fusion, extreme stealth, network-centric warfare, unmatched electronic warfare capabilities.
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Logistics & Interoperability: Supported by a global maintenance ecosystem; fully integrated with U.S. and allied forces.
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Challenges:
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India is not part of the F-35 development consortium.
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U.S. export policies impose strict end-user conditions and limited technology transfer.
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Possible conflict with India’s long-standing defense cooperation with Russia.
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Sukhoi Su-57E Felon (Russia)
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Export Variant: Russia’s flagship fifth-generation fighter, adapted for international clients.
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Strategic Offer: Moscow is offering not just aircraft, but co-production rights, technical support, and partnership in AMCA development.
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Battle-Tested Claims: Used in limited roles in Syria and Ukraine; Russia cites real-world data for performance validation.
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Challenges:
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Concerns over limited stealth geometry, underpowered engines, and incomplete sensor fusion.
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Low-rate serial production and operational reliability remain questions among Western analysts.
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Rosoboronexport and Rostec, Russia’s top defense export agencies, have launched an aggressive campaign to secure the deal, including showcasing the Su-57E at Indian defense expos and promising domestic manufacturing lines to align with India’s “Make in India” policy.
The fifth-generation fighter deal is not just a military transaction—it is a geopolitical balancing act. India’s tightrope walk between Russia and the United States complicates the procurement:
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Russia remains a key supplier of legacy IAF platforms like the Su-30MKI, MiG-29, and helicopters, and is seen as a stable, no-strings-attached defense partner.
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The United States, however, offers cutting-edge platforms and increasingly strategic convergence with India through defense agreements like COMCASA, LEMOA, and BECA—paving the way for real-time intelligence sharing and logistics support.
A decision in favor of the F-35 would signal deeper strategic alignment with the West, but could alienate Moscow at a time when Russia is actively courting Asian partners to offset Western sanctions and market losses due to the Ukraine conflict.
In parallel with fifth-generation imports, India is pursuing a dual-track modernization strategy:
Domestic Production of 4.5++ Gen Fighters (MRFA Program)
India’s planned acquisition of 114 multirole fighters under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program is advancing under the “Make in India” framework. Likely contenders include:
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Dassault Rafale F4 (France)
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Saab Gripen E (Sweden)
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Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet or F-15EX (USA)
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Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4 (UK/EU)
These aircraft would be assembled in India under a strategic partnership model, giving India sovereign production rights, technology access, and domestic jobs—all while reinforcing near-term capability with mature platforms.
India is also investing heavily in electronic warfare, AESA radars, long-range stand-off munitions, and network-centric battle management systems to upgrade existing platforms like the Su-30MKI and MiG-29UPG, even as the Rafale fleet gains F4-standard enhancements.
Strategic Calculus: Cost, Capability, and Control
The final decision may hinge on a matrix of considerations:
| Criteria | F-35 Lightning II | Su-57E Felon |
|---|---|---|
| Stealth | Superior VLO signature | Moderate VLO, improving |
| Technology Transfer | Highly restricted | Generous offer with co-development |
| Production Timeline | Immediate delivery possible | Slower; local production proposed |
| Coalition Compatibility | Fully NATO-compatible | Isolated systems, limited integration |
| Unit Cost (Estimate) | $80–110 million | $50–70 million |
| Geopolitical Implications | Aligns with US, risks Russia | Strengthens Russia ties, limits US access |
India’s final decision will reverberate beyond its borders. A move toward the F-35 could trigger Pakistan to accelerate its own stealth ambitions—potentially fast-tracking J-35A deliveries from China. Alternatively, choosing the Su-57 could reinforce the China-Russia axis, locking India into a trilateral aerospace competition in Asia.
The IAF’s leadership has made it clear: this is not about prestige, but survival in a high-end conflict environment. As air warfare moves toward data-centric, stealth-enabled, AI-supported platforms, India must plug its generational gap to ensure deterrence and superiority.
With airpower increasingly defining the outcome of modern wars—as seen in Ukraine, Gaza, and the South China Sea—the stakes could not be higher.
India’s urgency to induct fifth-generation fighters reflects the gravity of its regional security environment. As both China and Pakistan move toward stealth-enabled capabilities, the IAF’s conventional edge is eroding. The choice between the F-35 and Su-57 is not merely about aircraft specifications—it’s about strategic autonomy, industrial future, and combat readiness.
