Not too long ago, the reputation of IndiGo, India’s largest budget carrier, appeared unassailable. With a dominant 65 per cent share of the domestic passenger market, a fleet exceeding 400 aircraft, and more than 2,000 daily flights, IndiGo had become synonymous with reliability in a fiercely competitive industry. Its scale comfortably surpassed that of the Air India Group, which controls the national carrier and its subsidiaries. For millions of Indian travellers, IndiGo’s promise of punctuality, competitive fares and operational safety seemed unmatched.
Yet by mid-December, that carefully cultivated image lay in tatters.
The first signs of trouble emerged on Dec 2, when passengers and aviation observers noticed an unusual spike in flight cancellations. What initially appeared to be sporadic disruptions quickly escalated into a full-blown operational crisis. By Dec 5 alone, more than 1,000 IndiGo flights were cancelled in a single day. Since then, over 3,400 flights have been scrubbed from schedules, stranding thousands of passengers and causing chaos at airports across the country.
For an airline that consistently boasted the lowest cancellation rate in India, the scale of the disruption was unprecedented. As recently as October, IndiGo reported a cancellation rate of just 0.5 per cent, reinforcing its reputation as the most dependable carrier in the market. The sudden collapse of operational stability therefore raised urgent questions—not only about IndiGo’s internal planning, but also about the deeper vulnerabilities of India’s fast-growing aviation sector.
At the heart of the turmoil lies a severe shortage of pilots, exacerbated by new regulatory requirements. In 2024, the Indian government introduced revised Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL), aimed at improving safety by tightening rules on working hours and rest periods for pilots and cabin crew. Among the key measures were a mandatory weekly rest of 48 hours and a cap on night flying hours, with stricter limits on night landings.
Although the FDTL rules were originally scheduled to take effect in June 2024, strong pushback from airlines—including IndiGo—led regulators to agree to a phased implementation, split between July and November 2025. IndiGo managed to comply with the first phase from July 1 without major disruptions. However, the second phase, which came into force on Nov 1, proved far more challenging.
In particular, the reduction in allowable night landings for crew—from six per week to just two—caught the airline unprepared. IndiGo found itself suddenly short of legally rested pilots and crew, forcing it to ground a substantial portion of its fleet. In effect, regulatory compliance collided with operational reality, triggering a cascading failure across its network.
While the FDTL framework is central to the crisis, critics argue that IndiGo’s problems were compounded by poor planning and a misreading of regulatory requirements. The airline had months to prepare for the November deadline, yet failed to adequately adjust its rostering systems, recruit additional pilots, or build sufficient buffers into its schedules.
Some analysts suggest that IndiGo, accustomed to operating with razor-thin margins and high aircraft utilisation, underestimated the operational impact of stricter rest norms. The result was a sudden and dramatic contraction of available crew, leaving the airline with little choice but to cancel flights en masse.
Most observers agree that IndiGo’s crisis cannot be viewed in isolation. India’s aviation industry is expanding at a pace that outstrips even the US and China, driven by rising incomes, urbanisation and a growing middle class eager to fly. But this growth has not been matched by a corresponding expansion in the supply of trained pilots.
IndiGo’s aggressive expansion strategy—marked by massive aircraft orders and rapid route additions—has intensified the strain. While other Indian carriers face similar challenges, IndiGo’s sheer size means it feels the impact most acutely. When the largest airline falters, the consequences ripple across the entire system.
The country’s pilot training ecosystem bears part of the blame. Hampered by limited funding, regulatory bottlenecks and long training timelines, it has struggled to produce pilots at the scale required. At the same time, experienced Indian pilots are increasingly being drawn to wealthy Gulf carriers such as Emirates and Qatar Airways, attracted by higher salaries, better working conditions and more predictable schedules. This steady outflow has further depleted the domestic talent pool.
The IndiGo episode has also shone a spotlight on broader governance issues within India’s aviation sector. On Dec 2, regulators disclosed that Air India had operated an aircraft eight times without a valid safety certificate—an alarming lapse in oversight. The airline later acknowledged “systemic failures” that led to the violation.
Meanwhile, investigations are ongoing into a deadly Air India crash in June, with speculation over its causes continuing to swirl. Together, these incidents have raised uncomfortable questions about safety culture, regulatory enforcement and management practices across the industry.
IndiGo’s stumble has reignited debate over whether India’s aviation market has become too concentrated. Today, IndiGo and the Air India Group together account for more than 90 per cent of domestic market share. Critics argue that such dominance makes the system vulnerable: when one major player falters, passengers have few alternatives.
Airline oligopolies, however, are not unique to India. In Indonesia, for example, Lion Air Group controls roughly 70 per cent of the country’s vast air network. The aviation industry’s high barriers to entry—capital-intensive fleets, complex regulation and thin margins—naturally limit the number of viable competitors. Proponents argue that this helps weed out undercapitalised or poorly managed airlines, enhancing overall safety.
The crisis has inevitably taken on political overtones. Opposition politicians have accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of favouring select corporations and enabling near-monopolies in key sectors, including aviation. They argue that regulatory leniency and policy choices have allowed dominant players like IndiGo to grow too big, with insufficient checks.
Aviation Minister K R Naidu has firmly rejected these claims, placing responsibility squarely on IndiGo’s management. He has reiterated the government’s commitment to competition and safety, emphasising that regulatory rules apply equally to all carriers.
IndiGo CEO Pieter Elbers has publicly apologised for the disruption, assuring passengers that operations have stabilised and that the airline is now “back on its feet.” While some travellers remain sceptical, there are signs that the immediate crisis is easing as crew rosters are adjusted and compliance issues addressed.
Investors, notably, have shown resilience. Although IndiGo’s parent company, InterGlobe Aviation, saw a brief sell-off during the height of the cancellations, its share price has since rebounded, recouping much of its losses. This suggests that markets view the episode as a temporary setback rather than a fundamental threat to the airline’s long-term prospects.
Airline stocks represent less than 1 per cent of India’s total market capitalisation. Yet the broader aviation ecosystem—comprising listed and unlisted entities valued at around US$18 billion in 2025—is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3 to 5 per cent through 2030.
India’s aspirations as an emerging superpower rest heavily on its economic growth and technological prowess. Aviation is a critical enabler of that ambition, connecting cities, supporting trade and projecting global confidence. IndiGo’s fall from grace, however temporary, has exposed structural weaknesses that cannot be ignored.
Addressing pilot shortages, strengthening training infrastructure, improving regulatory compliance and diversifying market competition will be essential if India’s airline industry is to meet global standards. The recent crisis may yet serve as a turning point—an uncomfortable reminder that rapid growth, without robust foundations, can quickly run into turbulence.
