Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is set to embark on his first international diplomatic mission as head of state with an official visit to China, where he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. The visit, scheduled from November 5 to November 7, marks a significant step in Prabowo’s diplomatic strategy and highlights Indonesia’s intent to play a more active role on the world stage.
The tour signifies a strategic push by Indonesia to deepen relations with its Asian neighbors and to bolster its regional influence, especially amid a shifting global landscape. As the world’s fourth-most populous country and the largest archipelago nation, Indonesia has traditionally adhered to a non-aligned foreign policy. However, Prabowo’s administration is now looking to engage more actively in both regional and global affairs.
China and Indonesia, already close economic allies, anticipate that this visit will advance mutual interests, enhance political ties, and expand economic partnerships. According to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Prabowo’s state visit is expected to “push China-Indonesia relations…to a new level,” signaling an era of enhanced cooperation in trade, technology, defense, and infrastructure.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying announced that President Xi Jinping will host a welcoming ceremony for Prabowo, followed by discussions between the two leaders aimed at solidifying bilateral ties. Additionally, Prabowo is scheduled to meet Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji, the third-ranking official in China’s political hierarchy.
China has long viewed Southeast Asia as a region of strategic importance, especially as it expands its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure project designed to enhance connectivity and cooperation between Asia, Africa, and Europe. Indonesia’s unique geographic position and its economic potential make it a key partner in China’s vision of greater economic integration across the region. During the upcoming meetings, it is expected that the leaders will discuss further integration of Indonesia into the BRI, potentially enabling new investments and infrastructure projects that could aid Indonesia’s growth while strengthening Chinese influence in the region.
The possibility of expanding cooperation in sectors such as technology, energy, and maritime security is also on the agenda. A stronger Indonesia-China partnership would benefit both countries, enhancing Indonesia’s infrastructure and energy sectors while ensuring China’s access to strategic maritime routes.
Despite their strong economic ties, Indonesia and China have faced periodic tensions over territorial issues in the South China Sea. The waters around Indonesia’s Natuna Islands, located at the southern tip of the South China Sea, have seen incursions by Chinese vessels in recent years. While China does not officially dispute Indonesia’s sovereignty over the Natuna Islands, it claims “historical rights” over waters within its controversial “nine-dash line,” a demarcation that covers nearly 90% of the South China Sea and overlaps with waters claimed by other Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia.
Last month, Indonesia’s navy reported driving a Chinese coast guard vessel from waters near the Natuna Islands on three separate occasions. These incidents underscored Indonesia’s need to safeguard its territorial integrity and highlighted the challenges Prabowo’s administration will face in balancing diplomatic relations with China while upholding national sovereignty.
During his presidential campaign, Prabowo emphasized his commitment to defending Indonesia’s borders and natural resources. Observers believe that the upcoming talks with Xi Jinping will provide an opportunity for Prabowo to address maritime security and reiterate Indonesia’s stance on its sovereignty over the Natuna Islands and surrounding waters. Prabowo’s approach to this sensitive issue will be closely watched both domestically and internationally, as it could set the tone for future Indonesia-China relations under his administration.
Indonesia’s historical non-aligned foreign policy, established during the Cold War, has allowed it to remain neutral amid competing global powers. In recent years, this approach has enabled Indonesia to navigate tensions between the United States and China while fostering diplomatic relationships with both nations. President Joko Widodo, Prabowo’s predecessor, maintained this neutral stance, prioritizing domestic economic growth over foreign policy entanglements. However, Prabowo appears poised to adopt a more assertive international approach, building on Widodo’s legacy but with a greater focus on foreign engagement.
Indonesia’s stance on international conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war, remains non-aligned. The government has abstained from siding with either the West or Russia and has called for peaceful resolutions to such conflicts. Despite Western pressures to isolate Russia, Prabowo has emphasized the importance of maintaining strong ties with Moscow, underscoring Indonesia’s commitment to autonomy in its foreign policy. Last week, Indonesia and Russia conducted their first joint naval exercises, an event symbolizing Jakarta’s intent to pursue diverse international partnerships irrespective of global power rivalries.
Prabowo’s upcoming trip to China is only the beginning of a robust diplomatic schedule that aims to elevate Indonesia’s presence on the global stage. After his visit to Beijing, Prabowo is expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru and the G20 summit in Brazil. These summits will provide further platforms for Prabowo to engage with global leaders and discuss pressing issues such as climate change, economic recovery, and digital transformation.
Additionally, the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has indicated that Prabowo will travel to the United States and the United Kingdom as part of his initial diplomatic outreach. According to sources within the presidential palace, Prabowo is keen to foster new alliances and strengthen existing ones. During the eight-month transition period following his election victory, Prabowo visited more than a dozen countries, demonstrating his commitment to reshaping Indonesia’s foreign policy and projecting a more active, internationalist image of Indonesia.
Indonesia’s economy has grown steadily in recent years, with its GDP reaching $1.18 trillion in 2022. It is projected to become one of the world’s top 10 economies by 2030. Indonesia’s strong trade ties with China, its largest trading partner, are crucial for its economic stability and growth. In 2022, trade between the two countries exceeded $124 billion, with Indonesia exporting coal, palm oil, and other commodities to China while importing machinery, electronics, and manufactured goods.
Through this visit, Prabowo aims to secure further economic agreements, possibly focusing on renewable energy, technology transfer, and sustainable infrastructure development. Enhanced economic cooperation could help Indonesia accelerate its ambitious development goals, including the relocation of its capital from Jakarta to Nusantara on Borneo Island and the expansion of infrastructure across its many islands.
As the largest member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia plays a pivotal role in regional diplomacy. Prabowo’s visit to China is likely to resonate with other ASEAN countries, many of which are also navigating the delicate balance between fostering economic ties with China and protecting their territorial integrity in the South China Sea.
Indonesia’s leadership within ASEAN and its role in promoting regional unity will be critical as Southeast Asia faces increasing pressure from both the U.S. and China. Prabowo’s diplomatic efforts to strengthen Indonesia’s sovereignty and security while fostering economic cooperation could set an example for other ASEAN nations. The visit may also signal Prabowo’s support for a more cohesive and assertive ASEAN stance on issues affecting the region’s security and stability.
While Prabowo’s visit to China reflects his ambition to elevate Indonesia’s diplomatic profile, it also poses challenges. Balancing Indonesia’s strategic autonomy with the desire for stronger international partnerships will require nuanced diplomacy. Prabowo must navigate Indonesia’s domestic concerns—such as protecting natural resources and upholding sovereignty—while managing complex relationships with global powers.
The Natuna Islands issue remains a potential flashpoint, as any perceived compromise on Indonesia’s sovereignty could lead to domestic criticism. Prabowo’s handling of such sensitive matters will be closely observed, as it will set a precedent for his administration’s approach to foreign policy.
In addition, Prabowo will need to address Indonesia’s economic needs while ensuring that foreign investments align with national interests. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, while beneficial for infrastructure development, has been criticized for creating debt dependency in some countries. Prabowo’s administration will likely seek to ensure that Indonesian interests are safeguarded in any new agreements with China.
