Indonesia’s foreign policy under newly inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia this week commenced its first-ever joint military drills with Russia. Analysts view this as a step toward a more assertive role for Indonesia on the world stage, reflecting Prabowo’s ambitions to expand Jakarta’s diplomatic influence and military relationships, irrespective of established geopolitical blocs.
Indonesia, known for its long-standing neutral stance, has historically refrained from taking explicit sides in global conflicts, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the intensifying US-China rivalry. However, Prabowo has openly advocated for stronger ties with Moscow, signaling a potential pivot that may redefine Indonesia’s international alliances.
For decades, Indonesia has adhered to a neutral foreign policy, positioning itself as a “free and active” player on the international stage, steering clear of alliances that would tie it to the conflicts of other states. This stance has allowed Jakarta to build strategic partnerships with diverse global powers without binding commitments. However, President Prabowo’s decision to pursue closer ties with Russia highlights his administration’s new approach: advancing Indonesia’s national interests irrespective of existing alliances or Western pressure.
“This is part of a broader agenda to elevate ties with whomever it may be, regardless of their geopolitical bloc, as long as there is a benefit for Indonesia,” said Pieter Pandie, a researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Analysts interpret this statement as Prabowo’s commitment to engaging globally without limiting Indonesia to existing alliance structures.
The Russia Factor: New Military Partnerships Amid Diplomatic Tensions
Prabowo’s support for stronger relations with Moscow contrasts with Western efforts to diplomatically isolate Russia. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many countries imposed economic sanctions, significantly restricting Russia’s global partnerships. Despite this, Indonesia under Prabowo has forged ahead with closer ties.
While Jakarta has conducted military exercises with Russia as part of the ASEAN bloc in 2021, the current drills mark the first independent military cooperation between the two nations. These five-day exercises, located off eastern Java, showcase Indonesia’s willingness to deepen ties with Russia amid escalating Western concerns.
Moscow has sent three corvette-class warships, a medium tanker ship, a military helicopter, and a tugboat for the exercise, underscoring the value Russia places on this alliance. The drills are set to focus on tactics in maritime security, including countering piracy and smuggling, which Indonesia faces regularly in its territorial waters.
Indonesia stands to gain significant strategic advantages from these exercises with one of the world’s most powerful militaries. For Prabowo, the joint drills offer an opportunity to showcase his vision of an Indonesia capable of aligning with multiple global powers without being confined to one geopolitical bloc. Defense analysts agree that Russia’s participation presents a valuable opportunity for Indonesia to enhance its military skills, particularly in areas like maritime security, where Russian forces excel.
“It will allow capacity building to be obtained and for Jakarta to exchange ideas on maintaining Russian equipment it already owns,” said Curie Maharani Savitri, a defense analyst at Binus University. Indonesia’s current arsenal includes Russian-made amphibious tanks, helicopters, missiles, and fighter jets. Savitri’s analysis suggests that deeper ties with Russia could help Jakarta improve its maintenance capabilities and possibly secure Russian parts and expertise needed for these systems.
The joint drills come at a time when the US and its allies are working to curb Russia’s influence globally. For Indonesia, balancing its relationships with both the West and Russia could present a complex diplomatic challenge. In recent years, the US has been Indonesia’s primary partner for military exercises, with Jakarta hosting annual exercises like the Super Garuda Shield with the US and regional allies.
“The US has historically been the partner of choice for military exercises,” said Anton Aliabbas, an assistant professor at the Paramadina Graduate School of Diplomacy. “But Indonesia has been trying to diversify its partners, and I think there’s an overall bigger trend of that.” This diversification may create tensions with the US, which has consistently worked to limit Russia’s influence on its allies and discourage military partnerships that could benefit Moscow.
The United States has also sought to dissuade Indonesia from closer ties with Russia through diplomatic channels. Notably, in 2022, several Western nations urged Indonesia to rescind Russia’s invitation to the G20 summit. Although the US Embassy in Jakarta declined to comment on the current drills, experts suggest that the exercises may be perceived as a test of Indonesia’s commitment to neutrality.
Before his inauguration, Prabowo voiced his desire to cultivate a “web of strong friendships,” highlighting a foreign policy framework centered on building diverse international partnerships. True to his word, he has visited over a dozen countries since taking office, including the US, China, and Australia, signaling his interest in establishing robust ties across both Western and Eastern blocs.
The joint drills with Russia come on the heels of Prabowo’s diplomatic visits to several major players. Notably, his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in July culminated in the announcement of joint naval exercises. During this visit, Prabowo expressed his admiration for Russia, describing it as a “great friend” and vowing to strengthen ties. This diplomatic overture reflects Prabowo’s broader ambition to position Indonesia as an influential, independent player on the global stage.
In addition to diplomatic overtures with Russia, Prabowo’s administration has taken steps to align Indonesia with the BRICS group of emerging economies. Joining BRICS would reinforce Indonesia’s commitment to fostering ties with diverse global players and align with the country’s ambition of a balanced foreign policy.
The recent joint drills also come at a time of heightened maritime tension in the Indo-Pacific region. In recent weeks, Jakarta has had to address repeated intrusions by Chinese coast guard vessels into its claimed waters. These incidents underscore the strategic importance of Indonesia’s maritime capabilities and the value of foreign partnerships in strengthening its defense.
Indonesia’s cooperation with Russia could also serve as a signal to China and other regional players about Jakarta’s commitment to defending its territorial waters. Indonesia faces threats of smuggling, illegal fishing, and maritime piracy, and Russian expertise may help Jakarta bolster its efforts in maintaining security in its seas.
Despite differences in maritime objectives—Indonesia focuses on defending its waters from piracy and smuggling, while Russia is keen on finding geopolitical allies—the joint drills underscore Jakarta’s emphasis on enhancing its defense capabilities.
While it remains uncertain whether Prabowo’s administration will pursue additional bilateral military exercises with Russia or other non-Western states, the recent drills highlight an evident shift in Jakarta’s foreign policy. Many analysts see this as an introductory phase in Indonesia’s defense relationship with Russia, and expectations are tempered regarding the complexity and scale of the drills.
According to Pieter Pandie, the drills may be less advanced than Indonesia’s traditional exercises with the US, but the symbolic value remains significant. “I think it’s an introductory phase to the military relationship between the two, especially on the naval side,” Pandie noted. For Prabowo, this initiative is not just a diplomatic message but a strategic pivot indicating his readiness to diversify Jakarta’s defense partnerships.
As Prabowo seeks to shape Indonesia’s global role, his administration’s approach to foreign policy will likely continue evolving. Analysts suggest that Prabowo’s balanced approach could position Indonesia as a bridge between Eastern and Western powers, especially within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Indonesia is a member.
ASEAN has maintained a policy of neutrality and collective security, and Indonesia’s growing ties with Russia could provide an example for other member states looking to diversify their alliances. However, these developments also pose a delicate balancing act for Prabowo, who must manage the potential diplomatic fallout from the West while advancing Indonesia’s national interests.
