Indonesia’s recently elected President, Prabowo Subianto, advocated for collaboration over confrontation in his inaugural overseas trip, marking a notable shift in Indonesia’s foreign policy stance towards China. Addressing a business forum in Beijing, where he oversaw the signing of $10 billion in new business deals, Subianto emphasized Indonesia’s commitment to supporting China’s emergence as a “civilizational power,” underscoring a cooperative approach over rivalry.
This statement, delivered just before his departure for the United States, where he is expected to discuss China’s growing influence, underscores the balancing act Indonesia must perform as it strengthens ties with both Beijing and Washington amid rising global tensions.
During his speech in Beijing, Subianto stressed that Indonesia seeks a role in fostering cooperation and mutual respect, particularly between Asia’s rising powers and the West. “We must give an example that in this modern age, collaboration — not confrontation — is the way for peace and prosperity,” he remarked, signaling his administration’s intention to advocate for diplomacy as the primary avenue for managing complex international relations.
Subianto’s statements come in the wake of an agreement between him and Chinese President Xi Jinping to deepen Indonesia-China ties across multiple fronts. Notably, they added a new dimension to their partnership by elevating security as a fifth “pillar” of bilateral relations, joining political, economic, maritime, and cultural exchange. This strategic enhancement will lead to the first joint meeting of the countries’ foreign and defense ministers, slated for 2025, reflecting an unprecedented level of security cooperation between the two nations.
Historically, Indonesia has adopted a policy of non-alignment, maintaining diplomatic distance from great power conflicts. This approach allows Indonesia to foster relationships with global powers without becoming embroiled in their rivalries, particularly the growing contention between the United States and China. “Indonesia is very clear,” Subianto asserted. “We have always been nonaligned, we have always been respectful of all great powers in the world.”
Despite this stance, Indonesia is increasingly at the center of Southeast Asia’s complex geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning the South China Sea. While Indonesia does not have a formal dispute with China, it has actively defended its interests in the region. Just last month, an Indonesian patrol ship reportedly repelled a Chinese coast guard vessel that had encroached upon an Indonesian energy survey in waters within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone.
This incident underscores the challenges Indonesia faces as it deepens its relationship with China while maintaining its sovereignty and security interests in a region where tensions frequently arise.
The economic ties between China and Indonesia have strengthened significantly in recent years, driven by large-scale Chinese investments in Indonesia’s infrastructure, mining, and technology sectors. One of the most notable achievements of this cooperation was the completion of Indonesia’s first high-speed railway. The 142-kilometer line, linking the capital Jakarta with the city of Bandung, was inaugurated last year, symbolizing the tangible benefits of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for Indonesia.
The railway project, which was primarily financed and constructed by Chinese companies, has been a point of pride for both nations and highlights China’s role in Indonesia’s infrastructure modernization. However, the relationship is not without its challenges. While Chinese investments have boosted Indonesia’s economy and created jobs, they have also led to local grievances.
Chinese mining firms have invested heavily in Indonesia’s rich reserves of nickel and other metals critical for global technology supply chains, bringing economic benefits but also sparking environmental concerns. Additionally, the influx of low-cost Chinese products, particularly in the garment industry, has had a disruptive impact on local manufacturing, leading to factory closures and calls for protective tariffs. The Indonesian government now faces the delicate task of protecting domestic industries without jeopardizing its trade relationship with China, its largest trading partner.
Subianto’s visit to the United States will test Indonesia’s ability to maintain a balanced foreign policy in a period of escalating U.S.-China rivalry. Washington’s confrontational approach towards Beijing stands in contrast to Indonesia’s collaborative stance, leaving Subianto to balance his call for partnership with China against U.S. concerns about China’s rising influence in Southeast Asia and beyond.
The United States has repeatedly voiced concerns about China’s military buildup and territorial claims in the South China Sea, an issue that directly impacts several Southeast Asian countries but only indirectly affects Indonesia. By maintaining a policy of non-alignment, Indonesia positions itself as a neutral player, able to foster economic and security partnerships without alienating either superpower.
Indonesia’s unique position as Southeast Asia’s largest economy and one of the world’s most populous nations enables it to advocate for regional stability and development through diplomacy and cooperation. This approach aligns with Subianto’s vision for Indonesia as a “bridge” between competing powers, fostering an environment conducive to peace and prosperity.
Security cooperation marks a new chapter in Indonesia-China relations, which had previously been centered on trade, infrastructure, and cultural exchange. By elevating security to a “fifth pillar” of their partnership, Indonesia and China are acknowledging the growing importance of defense collaboration in their bilateral relationship. This includes the establishment of a regular forum for Indonesia’s and China’s foreign and defense ministers, a mechanism that has never existed before in their diplomatic history.
China’s increased military presence in Southeast Asia, particularly through artificial island bases in the South China Sea, has raised concerns among Indonesia’s neighbors, especially the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Although Indonesia does not have a territorial dispute with China, it remains vigilant in protecting its maritime sovereignty, especially in its resource-rich Natuna Islands region.
This newfound emphasis on security cooperation may also be seen as Indonesia’s way of fostering a balanced relationship with China, which can contribute to regional security without alienating other Southeast Asian countries or the United States.
Indonesia’s diplomatic approach has implications for its fellow ASEAN members, many of whom are grappling with the challenge of navigating between the United States and China. ASEAN, a ten-member association that includes Indonesia, has long adhered to a policy of neutrality, a principle that has come under strain as U.S.-China tensions intensify.
In recent years, several ASEAN countries, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, have sought stronger security assurances from the United States to counter China’s territorial ambitions. However, Indonesia’s focus on diplomacy over confrontation may influence its neighbors to consider a more balanced approach.
Some analysts believe that Subianto’s emphasis on collaboration may inspire ASEAN to double down on its neutrality, promoting an approach to regional security that avoids alignment with either superpower. This could potentially reduce the risk of military conflict in the South China Sea and allow Southeast Asian nations to focus on economic development.
While Subianto’s outreach to China has garnered international attention, it also presents domestic challenges. Indonesia’s population is increasingly attuned to the impact of foreign investments on the local economy, particularly when it comes to issues of employment and competition with imported goods.
The influx of inexpensive Chinese products has hit Indonesia’s garment industry particularly hard, leading to factory closures and a surge in unemployment in this sector. In response, some Indonesian business groups have called for import tariffs and other measures to protect domestic producers. However, the government has thus far sought to avoid any policies that might disrupt its critical economic ties with China.
Subianto’s administration will need to address these concerns as it navigates the complexities of foreign investment, economic growth, and domestic employment. In his statements in Beijing, Subianto acknowledged these challenges and emphasized that Indonesia’s collaboration with China would be driven by mutual benefit, with careful consideration for the welfare of Indonesian workers and businesses.
