Indonesia’s political landscape, President-elect Prabowo Subianto is rapidly shaping the nation’s next government as he prepares to be sworn in on October 20. His recent talks with candidates for senior government positions have sparked widespread attention, particularly due to his efforts to secure the support of the country’s largest political party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). If successful, this move would effectively eliminate any parliamentary opposition for the first time in Indonesia’s modern history of direct presidential elections, ushering in an unprecedented political scenario.
Prabowo Subianto’s journey to becoming Indonesia’s incoming president has been marked by a steady consolidation of political power. A former special forces commander and long-time political figure, Prabowo has maintained a prominent position within Indonesia’s political landscape for decades. His presidential victory in the 2024 election marks a major personal triumph, following several failed bids in previous elections.
As soon as he secured his victory, Prabowo set out to construct a robust coalition capable of dominating Indonesia’s legislative agenda. Of the eight political parties represented in the Indonesian parliament, seven have already pledged their support to Prabowo’s administration. This coalition has given him a solid majority in parliament, ensuring that much of his legislative agenda could be passed with little resistance.
However, Prabowo’s ambitions don’t stop at securing a simple parliamentary majority. His overtures to the PDI-P, which won the most seats in the February 2024 elections, suggest that he is aiming for a comprehensive political monopoly. By bringing the PDI-P into his fold, Prabowo’s coalition would become all-encompassing, erasing the last vestiges of formal opposition in Indonesia’s parliament.
The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) plays a key role in Indonesia’s political fabric. The party, led by former President Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter of Indonesia’s founding leader Sukarno, has deep historical roots and substantial influence. The PDI-P nominated outgoing President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in 2014, leading to his successful two-term presidency.
However, relations between Jokowi and the PDI-P have soured in recent years, with growing tensions over his tacit support for Prabowo during the 2024 election campaign. This internal conflict has opened the door for Prabowo to potentially woo the PDI-P into his political alliance. Executives from Prabowo’s own Gerindra Party have confirmed that talks are planned with Megawati, although the timing of these discussions remains uncertain.
Should the PDI-P join Prabowo’s coalition, Indonesia’s political system would face a dramatic shift. Since the introduction of direct presidential elections in 2004, the presence of opposition parties in parliament has provided at least some level of checks and balances on executive power. The elimination of a parliamentary opposition would raise significant concerns about the concentration of power in the hands of a single political bloc.
If Prabowo manages to finalize a deal with the PDI-P, Indonesia will find itself in uncharted political waters. With no opposition parties in parliament, Prabowo’s coalition would effectively have carte blanche to pass legislation unchallenged. On one hand, this could lead to swift and efficient governance, as laws could be enacted without the delays and compromises that often accompany opposition resistance.
However, such a scenario comes with serious risks. Indonesia’s democratic system is still relatively young, having only emerged from decades of authoritarian rule in 1998. The prospect of a government with unchecked legislative power could exacerbate fears of democratic backsliding—a concern already voiced by analysts and civil society groups.
Political observers warn that the absence of a formal opposition could undermine the quality of Indonesia’s democracy. In a system where dissent and debate are crucial for holding the government accountable, a parliament dominated by a single political coalition could weaken institutional checks on executive authority.
Indonesia’s modern democratic era was born out of the fall of Suharto’s 31-year authoritarian regime in 1998. The transition to democracy was turbulent, but it laid the foundation for Indonesia’s political evolution, including the introduction of direct presidential elections in 2004. Since then, opposition parties in parliament have played a crucial role in maintaining a healthy political balance, ensuring that no single faction could monopolize power.
Prabowo’s rise to the presidency brings with it echoes of Indonesia’s authoritarian past. A former lieutenant general and one-time son-in-law of Suharto, Prabowo’s military career ended amid accusations of human rights abuses, including his involvement in the kidnapping and disappearance of pro-democracy activists in the late 1990s. Although he has consistently denied these allegations, his military background and controversial past make him a polarizing figure.
In March 2024, Prabowo publicly described democracy as “tiring, costly, and messy,” raising further concerns about his commitment to democratic principles. He has expressed support for improving Indonesia’s democratic system, but his remarks have fueled fears that his administration could prioritize order and efficiency over civil liberties and democratic debate.
The current political environment also reflects the ongoing influence of outgoing President Joko Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi. Although his presidency began with promises of reform, Jokowi has faced criticism for his handling of democratic institutions in his second term. Critics accuse him of attempting to change laws for personal gain and using state institutions to suppress opposition voices.
One of the most significant developments during Jokowi’s presidency has been the increasing involvement of his family in politics. His eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is set to become the vice president under Prabowo’s administration. This father-son political dynamic has drawn attention to the potential entrenchment of political dynasties in Indonesia, further complicating the future of the country’s democracy.
Jokowi has denied any wrongdoing and maintains that his administration has strengthened Indonesia’s democratic institutions. Nevertheless, concerns persist that political elites are consolidating power in ways that could stifle democratic norms and practices.
As Prabowo prepares to take office, Indonesia stands at a crossroads. His leadership could bring about significant changes, both in terms of governance and the broader political climate. With a dominant coalition in parliament, Prabowo’s administration will likely be able to pass major legislation quickly, potentially leading to rapid economic development and infrastructure growth—areas that Prabowo has emphasized in his campaign.
However, the long-term implications for Indonesia’s democracy remain unclear. While some voters may welcome the prospect of stability and strong governance, others fear that the concentration of power could erode the democratic values that Indonesians have fought to establish over the past two decades.
A key question moving forward will be how Prabowo chooses to use his considerable political capital. Will he seek to strengthen democratic institutions and promote good governance, or will he focus on consolidating power at the expense of political freedoms and transparency? Much will depend on the balance between efficiency and accountability, as well as the role that civil society and the media play in holding the government to account.
Indonesia’s incoming president, Prabowo Subianto, stands on the brink of reshaping the nation’s political landscape. His efforts to forge a coalition that includes the PDI-P could create a parliament without any opposition, a first in Indonesia’s post-authoritarian era. While this development promises smoother governance and the possibility of rapid reforms, it also raises serious concerns about the concentration of power and the future of Indonesia’s democracy.
