Iran has dramatically increased its production of highly enriched uranium, according to a confidential report by the United Nations nuclear watchdog. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report, dated May 17, reveals Iran now possesses over 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity—just a short technical step away from the weapons-grade threshold of 90 percent.
This marks a sharp rise of 133.8 kilograms since the agency’s last quarterly report in February, and pushes Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile to a staggering 9,247.6 kilograms—over 45 times the limit set under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal Iran signed with six world powers.
While Iran insists its nuclear program is strictly for peaceful purposes, the scale and speed of its enrichment activities have intensified suspicions in the West, and ignited fresh tensions in the already precarious nuclear negotiations.
The IAEA’s latest assessment paints a bleak picture for nonproliferation efforts. In its words, “The significantly increased production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern.”
Enrichment to 60 percent—far above the 3.67 percent cap set by the JCPOA—has no credible civilian purpose, according to most nuclear experts. It puts Iran on the brink of having enough fissile material to quickly build one or more nuclear warheads, should it choose to do so.
This finding has provoked sharp criticism from Israel. In a strongly worded statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declared, “Such a level of enrichment exists only in countries actively pursuing nuclear weapons and has no civilian justification whatsoever. Iran is totally determined to acquire nuclear weapons.”
Netanyahu has previously warned that Israel will not hesitate to take unilateral military action to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state, and has pushed the U.S. for a firmer stance.
Despite the grim data, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sought to defuse international alarm, reiterating Tehran’s official position that nuclear weapons are fundamentally unacceptable. In a televised speech on Saturday, Araghchi stated, “If the issue is nuclear weapons, yes, we too consider this type of weapon unacceptable. We agree with them on this issue.”
Araghchi’s message is part of a calculated diplomatic strategy aimed at navigating the tightrope between asserting Iran’s rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and avoiding global isolation or confrontation.
“We are enriching uranium because it is our sovereign right,” he emphasized in earlier remarks. “Our goal is to develop nuclear energy for peaceful uses, not to create weapons of mass destruction.”
Araghchi’s comments come against the backdrop of delicate and protracted negotiations between Tehran and Washington. Since former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed harsh sanctions under his “maximum pressure” campaign, Iran has steadily ramped up its nuclear activities in response.
Trump’s decision effectively collapsed the deal and shifted the regional power dynamics, straining U.S. relations with European allies and emboldening hardliners in Iran. Tehran initially remained in partial compliance for a year, but began breaching the deal’s terms in phases, citing the lack of economic relief.
The current U.S. administration has engaged in indirect talks with Iran through intermediaries, including Oman and the European Union, to revive a version of the original agreement. Despite five rounds of discussions, no breakthrough has been reached.
President Trump recently stated, “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” while expressing cautious optimism about reaching a new accord. He added, “We’re having some very good talks with Iran.”
However, he also revealed that he had warned Netanyahu against preemptive military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying it would be “inappropriate right now.”
Araghchi, for his part, downplayed media reports suggesting a deal was imminent. “I am not sure if a deal is close. There is still much to negotiate, especially regarding sanctions relief and verification mechanisms,” he said.
Complicating the negotiations is Iran’s lack of full cooperation with the IAEA. In a separate detailed report released alongside the quarterly summary, the agency criticized Iran for what it called “less than satisfactory” engagement regarding unresolved questions about nuclear material found at undeclared sites.
Despite repeated requests, Iran has not provided a credible explanation for the origin and presence of uranium particles at these locations. The agency’s report said that its ability to verify Iran’s nuclear program remains “severely constrained.”
This impasse has led IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi to issue stark warnings. “Without full cooperation and transparency from Iran, we are flying blind,” he said. “The international community deserves clear answers.”
Iran’s strategy appears to be a form of calibrated escalation: increasing enrichment levels to raise the stakes while keeping open the possibility of returning to the negotiating table. By maintaining plausible deniability and avoiding overt moves toward weaponization, Tehran aims to pressure the West into lifting sanctions without triggering full-scale confrontation.
This approach is not without risks. The more Iran enriches, the more likely it is to cross a threshold where rollback becomes technically or politically unfeasible.
A senior Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned, “Iran is getting very close to the breakout capability—the point at which it could produce a bomb before the world has time to react. That changes the game entirely.”
The escalating nuclear standoff has ripple effects across the Middle East. Sunni Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have expressed alarm over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and growing influence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
If Iran acquires nuclear weapons—or even the capability to quickly assemble one—it could trigger a regional arms race. Saudi Arabia has already signaled interest in developing its own nuclear program, ostensibly for peaceful energy purposes.
Israel, meanwhile, remains on high alert. It has conducted numerous airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian and Hezbollah assets and continues to gather intelligence on Iran’s nuclear sites. Netanyahu has described Iran as an existential threat and repeatedly stated that Israel “must be ready to act alone, if necessary.”
Despite the mounting pressure, there remains a narrow window for diplomacy. Iran has indicated that it may consider allowing U.S. inspectors to participate in IAEA monitoring missions if a new agreement is struck.
Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said, “We will reconsider accepting American inspectors through the Agency if an agreement is reached and Iran’s demands are taken into account.”
This move could serve as a confidence-building gesture, provided that mutual trust can be restored and concrete steps are taken by both sides. However, the path to such an outcome is riddled with political landmines, both in Tehran and Washington.
The world stands at a pivotal juncture in its decades-long confrontation with Iran over nuclear weapons. The IAEA’s latest report reveals a country pushing the limits of international tolerance while insisting it remains within the boundaries of legality and morality.
Diplomats are walking a tightrope. On one side is the imperative to prevent nuclear proliferation and uphold global security norms. On the other is the challenge of engaging a defiant regional power that feels betrayed by past agreements and determined to assert its sovereignty.
