Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appeared to carry out extensive air defense and missile-related exercises over multiple urban centers on the evening of January 5, according to Persian-language media and international observers monitoring social platforms. Videos circulating widely online showed sustained anti-aircraft fire lighting up the night skies over Tehran and Shiraz. Residents reported repeated detonations consistent with short-range air defense systems rather than long-range ballistic missile launches, sources including Namehnews and Eghtesadonline reported.
Footage shared on Telegram and X appeared to originate from several locations, including western districts of Tehran, Shiraz, and Maragheh in northwestern Iran. While the authenticity of each clip could not be independently verified, the volume and geographic spread suggest coordinated drills involving multiple IRGC air defense units. Iranian authorities have not officially commented on the exercises, leaving the scale, purpose, and targets of the activity uncertain.
The drills quickly fueled speculation in the region. Israeli television channels and other international outlets suggested the activity could indicate Iranian preparations for a potential strike against Israel. These claims remain unverified, and Tehran has made no public acknowledgment of missile launches or imminent action against regional targets. Analysts note that while Iran regularly conducts air defense exercises, the visibility of these drills over densely populated areas has intensified concerns amid heightened regional tensions.
Adding to the ambiguity, Iranian state media in early January reported that banners had been erected across Tehran containing warnings against Israel and the US military presence in the Gulf. Social media posts from multiple neighborhoods showed banners featuring maps and references to previous Iranian strikes, accompanied by the phrase, “It Will Happen Again.” Some specifically mentioned the US base in Qatar, reinforcing the perception that the messaging was aimed both at external adversaries and domestic audiences.
The timing of the drills is politically sensitive. Iran is confronting nationwide protests that have entered their eighth consecutive day, with at least 17 people reported killed and internet restrictions imposed in areas of intense demonstrations. Analysts interpret the activation of air defense systems over major cities as a show of force intended to project regime control and deter both internal dissent and external threats.
Internal pressures within Iran’s leadership are also mounting. On January 5, President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly urged security forces to treat protesters respectfully, marking a rare conciliatory tone amid unrest. Senior officials cited by The New York Times described the situation as a “survival-level crisis” for the regime. Meanwhile, Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani warned on January 2 that alleged US interference in the protests could destabilize the region, cautioning Washington to “be mindful of their soldiers’ safety,” a statement highlighting Tehran’s linkage of domestic unrest with external confrontation.
From a military standpoint, the reported exercises align with established IRGC doctrine emphasizing layered air defense around key cities and strategic sites. Previous drills have deployed Khordad-series surface-to-air missiles and short-range gun-missile systems optimized to counter drones and low-flying threats. Conducting exercises over urban centers, rather than remote ranges, serves both signaling and operational testing purposes, evaluating command-and-control performance under realistic conditions.
With no official statement from the IRGC, the January 5 activity remains open to interpretation. What is evident, however, is that the combination of visible military drills, aggressive public messaging, and escalating domestic unrest has sharpened regional attention on Iran’s next moves. Whether intended as routine training, strategic deterrence, or political signaling, the exercises underscore the central role of the IRGC’s missile and air defense forces in Tehran’s response to simultaneous internal and external pressures.
