This week, Iran unleashed more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in a forceful retaliation for Israeli assassinations of key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. The move shocked many observers, who were surprised by the intensity of Tehran’s response. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wasted no time in vowing to retaliate “harshly and at a time of its own choosing.” Netanyahu declared, “whoever attacks us, we attack them,” as his security cabinet convened for an emergency late-night meeting.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration swiftly condemned Iran’s aggression and reiterated the United States’ unwavering commitment to defending Israel. The White House warned that Iran would face “severe consequences” but simultaneously urged restraint, particularly in relation to potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. This escalation marks a dangerous turning point in the long-standing tensions between Israel and Iran, raising the question: what could Israel’s retaliation look like, and is a full-scale war between Israel, Iran, and possibly the United States on the horizon?
What was once a localized conflict in Gaza has spread across the Middle East, drawing in multiple nations, militias, and global powers. For Israel, it is no longer just Hamas that poses a threat—it is also facing pressure from Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shi’a militias in Iraq and Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen, all of whom receive backing from Iran. The eruption of violence has deepened existing divides, creating two distinct blocs: Israel and its Western allies on one side, and Iran and its proxies, supported by Russia and China, on the other.
The Iranian missile strike underscores the shifting dynamics. What started as a fight between Israel and Palestinian factions has now become a broader confrontation, with Iran, a powerful regional player, engaging in direct attacks on Israel. The ripple effects extend far beyond the Middle East, with global superpowers picking sides.
Israel’s Multi-Front War
Israel is currently embroiled in a complex, multi-front war. On the one hand, it is fighting in Gaza, where Hamas, while significantly weakened, still maintains some influence. The Israeli military’s relentless bombardments and ground incursions into Gaza have reduced Hamas’ operational capacity, but the toll has been devastating: over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed, and the humanitarian crisis continues to grow.
In the West Bank, violence is escalating as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conduct operations to counter attacks by militants emboldened by Iranian support. Tensions are running high, with the region becoming a fertile ground for further unrest.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s involvement has added another layer to the already volatile situation. After Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah quickly followed suit, initiating a barrage of rocket attacks from southern Lebanon. This forced more than 60,000 Israelis living near the northern border to flee their homes. In response, Israel launched a ground incursion into Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s military strongholds.
The Israeli campaign against Hezbollah has been particularly fierce. Two weeks ago, the IDF launched an air campaign aimed at neutralizing Hezbollah’s vast arsenal of missiles, rockets, and drones, estimated to number 150,000. Hezbollah, one of Iran’s most powerful allies, poses a formidable threat to Israel’s northern border, and its continued aggression has led to the displacement of up to one million Lebanese civilians.
Iran’s Direct Involvement
The most dramatic development in this conflict came with Iran’s direct involvement in launching ballistic missiles at Israel. This marked only the second time Iran has directly attacked Israel, with the first occurring months earlier in a more limited strike. Most of the missiles were intercepted by Israel’s advanced missile defense systems, bolstered by assistance from the United States, Jordan, and other regional partners. However, a few missiles did strike within Israel’s territory, and shrapnel caused the death of one Palestinian in the West Bank.
Iran’s decision to attack Israel directly signals its intent to play a more prominent role in the ongoing conflict, likely driven by a desire to protect its regional interests and the proxy groups it supports. However, this escalation also opens the door for Israel to deliver a powerful response that could further destabilize Iran.
As the conflict escalates, it becomes increasingly clear that global powers are heavily involved in the regional dynamics. The United States has played a pivotal role in supporting Israel, providing advanced military aid and political backing on the international stage. President Biden has been vocal about his administration’s support for Israel’s right to defend itself but has also emphasized the need for proportional responses, particularly in light of concerns over the Iranian nuclear program.
On the other hand, Russia and China have stepped up their support for Iran. Russia has reportedly promised to supply Tehran with advanced fighter jets and air defense technology, further deepening the military ties between the two nations. Additionally, Iran has become a key supplier of weapons to Russia, providing drones and other military equipment for the ongoing war in Ukraine. This relationship has provided Iran with a much-needed economic lifeline, as its own economy continues to struggle under heavy international sanctions.
The involvement of these superpowers has transformed the conflict from a regional war to a proxy battle with far-reaching consequences. The alignment of Israel and the West against Iran and its allies mirrors the Cold War dynamics of the past, with both sides using the Middle East as a battleground for their broader geopolitical ambitions.
Israel’s Next Move: A Calculated Retaliation
As Iran flexes its military muscle, Israel now faces a critical decision regarding its response. Netanyahu has already made it clear that Israel will retaliate, but the scope and scale of that retaliation remain uncertain. One possibility is that Israel could target Iran’s critical infrastructure, including its communications networks, financial institutions, and oil industry. Such an attack could cripple Iran’s economy and further weaken the regime.
Another option on the table is targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. For years, Israeli and American hawks have argued that Iran’s nuclear program is a cover for its pursuit of atomic weapons. The concern is that if left unchecked, Iran could eventually develop a nuclear weapon, shifting the balance of power in the region. While President Biden has urged caution, there remains significant pressure within Israel and among some U.S. policymakers to take advantage of this moment to strike a critical blow against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Israel might also focus on degrading Iran’s air defense systems, which would send a clear message that the regime would be vulnerable in any future conflicts. This could serve as a deterrent for further Iranian aggression, though it would also risk escalating the conflict to a point of no return.
The Cost of Miscalculations: Tehran on Edge
For Iran, the decision to attack Israel directly may prove to be a costly miscalculation. Tehran likely underestimated Israel’s ability and willingness to strike back with overwhelming force. Moreover, Iran’s “axis of resistance”—which includes Hezbollah, Hamas, and other regional militias—has never appeared more vulnerable. Israel’s ongoing military campaigns have severely weakened these groups, and Tehran’s involvement now places its own assets at risk.
Iran’s leaders are reportedly taking these threats seriously. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been relocated to a secure location, presumably to avoid any potential assassination attempts. The regime is acutely aware that any serious blow to its infrastructure or military capabilities could threaten its hold on power.
The conflict between Israel and Iran has reached a critical juncture. While a full-scale war seemed like a distant possibility only a few months ago, the rapid escalation of violence has made it a very real concern. Both sides are now engaged in direct military action, and the involvement of global powers like the United States, Russia, and China only raises the stakes.
For now, the ball is in Israel’s court. Netanyahu faces a narrow window of opportunity to strike back against Iran’s network of proxies and, potentially, Iran itself. While Israel is stretched thin across multiple fronts, Tehran’s “axis of resistance” has never been weaker. The question remains whether Israel will seize this moment to deliver a decisive blow, or whether the conflict will continue to spiral into an all-out war that could engulf the entire region—and beyond.
