The Middle East, Iran fired at least 180 ballistic missiles into Israel on October 1, 2024. The attacks, described as some of the heaviest missile strikes Israel has faced, were largely intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, with additional support from nearby U.S. naval destroyers. The strikes represent a dangerous new phase in the ongoing conflict, which began in October 2023 and has continued to intensify with no clear end in sight.
The missile barrage came in response to the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the long-time leader of Hezbollah, by Israeli forces on September 27. Nasrallah’s death is the latest in a series of blows to the Tehran-backed militant group, which has been actively involved in the conflict between Israel and Gaza-based Hamas. Since the start of the Gaza war, Hezbollah has ramped up its rocket attacks on northern Israel, displacing thousands of Israeli civilians.
The Middle East, long a region of instability, has seen its security landscape become even more volatile over the past year. The current conflict, which began after Hamas launched a surprise invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, has expanded well beyond Israel and Gaza. In the initial Hamas attack, nearly 1,200 Israelis were killed, triggering a ferocious response from the Israeli military that continues to this day.
The involvement of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militant group closely allied with Iran, has added a new dimension to the war. Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel from the north, intensifying the conflict and broadening the geographical scope of the war. Hezbollah’s attacks have forced nearly 70,000 Israelis to flee their homes in northern Israel, further amplifying the humanitarian toll.
Since November 2023, Israeli special operations units have been conducting clandestine missions in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership. These operations, along with air and missile strikes, have significantly weakened Hezbollah’s capabilities, including the destruction of key weapons caches and the deaths of several senior leaders. The killing of Hassan Nasrallah is seen as a pivotal moment in the conflict, potentially altering Hezbollah’s strategy moving forward.
Humanitarian Toll in Lebanon
The human cost of the ongoing conflict is staggering, particularly in Lebanon, where more than 1,000 people have been killed in the recent Israeli strikes. While many of the casualties are believed to be Hezbollah fighters, the true toll on civilians remains unclear. As Hezbollah operates within densely populated areas, distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants has become increasingly difficult.
This current escalation mirrors the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, a 34-day conflict that killed over 1,500 people. However, unlike the 2006 war, the current fighting is marked by daily attacks and a wider geographic spread, involving multiple fronts in both Gaza and Lebanon. What was once a shadow war has now exploded into open conflict, with no signs of de-escalation on the horizon.
Iran’s Role in the Conflict
Iran’s involvement in the conflict has been growing steadily, with its latest missile attacks marking a significant escalation. Tehran justified the strikes as retaliation for Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian military assets. Iran has long been a supporter of Hezbollah, with the relationship dating back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the formation of the Islamic Republic.
Over the years, Iran has cultivated what it calls the “Axis of Resistance,” a coalition of militant groups and organizations across the Middle East. This includes not only Hezbollah in Lebanon but also Hamas in Gaza, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. While these groups were ideologically opposed to Israel before, they were largely fighting their own separate conflicts. However, in the aftermath of the October 2023 invasion, these groups have unified around a common goal: the destruction of Israel.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, and senior commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have provided clear guidance to the various elements of the Axis of Resistance, urging them to intensify their efforts against Israel. Iran’s military and financial support to these groups has helped sustain their operations, making it a central player in the conflict.
To understand the current dynamics, it is essential to examine Hezbollah’s origins and its long-standing relationship with Iran. Hezbollah was formed in the early 1980s during Lebanon’s civil war, with Iranian support, as a response to Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982. The IRGC played a crucial role in training and advising Hezbollah’s early fighters, shaping the group into the powerful militant organization it is today.
In its early years, Hezbollah launched a series of terrorist attacks against U.S., French, and Israeli targets. These included the infamous 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, which killed 241 American service members. Hezbollah also carried out numerous kidnappings, hijackings, and assassinations throughout the 1980s, earning a reputation as one of the most dangerous terrorist organizations in the world.
Since then, Hezbollah has grown into a formidable military and political force in Lebanon. It operates as a “state within a state,” maintaining its own army, social services, and political party. The Lebanese government, though not directly involved in Hezbollah’s military operations, has largely tolerated its presence. In the current conflict, the Lebanese military has stayed out of the fighting, further underscoring Hezbollah’s dominance in the country.
Hezbollah’s Military Capabilities
Hezbollah is significantly stronger than Hamas, both in terms of manpower and weaponry. The group’s military wing is estimated to have between 40,000 and 50,000 regular fighters, organized into a well-structured military hierarchy. Hezbollah also possesses an enormous arsenal of rockets, missiles, and drones, estimated at 150,000 to 200,000 units. These weapons range from short-range rockets to long-range missiles capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory.
Over the past few weeks, the Israeli military claims to have destroyed at least half of Hezbollah’s weapons stockpile. If true, this would represent a major blow to Hezbollah’s operational capabilities. However, given the group’s extensive resources and long history of resilience, it is unlikely that these losses will cripple its ability to continue fighting.
Hezbollah has also demonstrated a global reach, particularly through its External Security Organization (ESO), which is responsible for carrying out terrorist attacks abroad. In the 1990s, Hezbollah was behind the bombing of the Israeli embassy and a Jewish community center in Argentina, killing more than 100 people. More recently, in 2012, the group was linked to a suicide bombing that targeted Israeli tourists in Bulgaria.
As tensions continue to escalate, there are growing concerns that the conflict could spread beyond the Middle East. Iran’s missile strikes, combined with Hezbollah’s ongoing rocket attacks, have raised fears of a broader regional war. Iran’s leaders have repeatedly stated that they see Israel as a key threat to their interests, and they have made no secret of their desire to see the Jewish state destroyed.
The possibility of Hezbollah carrying out attacks outside the region, similar to its operations in Argentina and Bulgaria, cannot be ruled out. The group has a long history of international terrorism, and its leadership may seek to retaliate against Israel or its allies through such means. In particular, Hezbollah’s recent losses could prompt it to stage a high-profile attack in an effort to reassert its strength and send a message to its enemies.
U.S. officials are also closely monitoring the situation, particularly given Hezbollah’s history of targeting American interests in the region. During the 1980s, Hezbollah was responsible for a series of deadly attacks on U.S. personnel, including the bombing of the U.S. embassy in Beirut and the assassination of CIA station chief William Buckley.
The Middle East is once again on the brink of a major conflict, with Iran’s missile attacks and Hezbollah’s ongoing rocket barrage pushing the region toward further instability. The killing of Hassan Nasrallah has only added fuel to the fire, with Hezbollah vowing revenge and Iran stepping up its involvement in the war.
As the situation continues to unfold, the world is watching closely, uncertain of what the future holds. With the potential for the conflict to spread beyond the region, the stakes could not be higher. The international community, led by the United Nations and key global powers, will need to act swiftly to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control, but for now, the prospect of peace seems more distant than ever.
