The Iran-Pakistan border has been a notorious area for smuggling, human trafficking, narcotics trade, and the movement of insurgents and terrorists. Despite this, both countries have managed to maintain engagement and set up mechanisms to address the terrorism issue. On January 16, Iran launched a missile and drone attack on Pakistani soil against a Pakistan-based Sunni terrorist group Jaish al-Adl. Pakistan initially downgraded diplomatic relations and called off all bilateral visits.
However, on January 18, Pakistan launched counter-strikes against alleged Baloch separatist camps in Iran. The ball is now back in Iran’s court, and the situation is expected to escalate. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Iran is emptying areas bordering Pakistan, moving troops towards the border, and deploying ballistic missile batteries. Iran is also holding a large air defense exercise close to the border with Pakistan. This is likely a sign of posturing, as Iran is known to do such posturing on the ground. Both sides are making noises that suggest they won’t push the envelope any further, and the current exchange between Iran and Pakistan is likely to end.
Iran’s miscalculations in targeting Pakistan on the same day it targeted Iraq and Syria may have been a mistake. Iran likely saw Pakistan as a soft target, as it was already engaged on three fronts: India, Islamist insurgency from Afghanistan, and domestic front against Imran Khan. Opening a fourth front with Iran was something Pakistan would avoid, according to Iran. The Pakistan Army is also not in a position to fight a war due to its economic, political, security, social, and institutional stress. To satisfy domestic public opinion in Iran, Iran has launched attacks in the restive Sistan-Balochistan province.
Iran’s analysis of Pakistan’s weakness was correct, but its assessment of Pakistan’s reaction was also flawed. Pakistan’s weak state and severe economic, political, security, social, and institutional stress made it desperate to retaliate, as not doing so would mean being taken for a complete pushover by Iran and other regional players, especially India. It was a matter of strategic survival for Pakistan to respond diplomatically and militarily, albeit without provoke Iran.
The Pakistan Army-run hybrid regime had no option but to hit back at Iran, as its reputation and role as guardian of Pakistan’s territorial and ideological frontiers were being questioned. It became a matter of political survival for Pakistan’s military to give an appropriate and proportionate military response and keep fingers crossed that things would settle after one round of tit-for-tat attacks. If this remains, Pakistan would be pleased, as it would restore conventional deterrence, convey a message to its neighbors, raise the political stock of the armed forces, and restore its image in the public. If successful, Pakistan could leverage this stand-off to demonstrate its utility to both its benefactors in the Arab world and the United States.
Pakistan’s retaliation against Iran poses a dilemma for the country. If Iran escalates, it could open another front for itself, which is not sensible given its deep involvement in the Israel-Palestine war. On the other hand, if Iran backs down, it could signal to other players in the region that the way to contain Iran’s expanding influence is by directly targeting it. This could lead to Pakistan-based Sunni terrorist groups attacking Iran further.
If tensions between Iran and Pakistan don’t resolve, the two sides may re-engage after a few weeks or months. However, if these tensions lead to open hostilities or a hot border, it will add to the already messy situation in the Middle East. This could impact India by disrupting energy supply routes and trade corridors between India and Arab Gulf states. Additionally, these tensions open up an opportunity for China to expand its diplomatic footprint in the region by playing mediator between its strategic partner Iran and its client state Pakistan. The US is not in a position to play the role of an enforcer in the region, and China is unabashedly coveting it. Pakistan’s actions within Iran could lead to further tensions and a messy situation in the Middle East.
